Dry Cool Florida

[Sanibel]

We are dry and cool here as far as humidity with fronts still dipping far enough south to sweep us clear and dry. Brisk breezes varying from east to seabreeze west.

Interesting to see if GW pushed the June occurrence average up and we have one this year...

[JonathanBelles]

I wouldnt call it cool. It was 85 today, and its 76 here now. Winds SE at 20mph right now.

[gatorcane]

The weather now won't have any bearing. Remember in 2004, fronts were pushing down into Florida as late as August and the long-wave pattern changed for several weeks thereafter with no fronts and lots of ridging through October.

[wxman57]

The weather now won't have any bearing. Remember in 2004, fronts were pushing down into Florida as late as August and the long-wave pattern changed for several weeks thereafter with no fronts and lots of ridging through October.

And the first named storm in 2004 didn't occur until the night of July 31st. Maybe we'll make mid August before the first storm this summer?

[Derek Ortt]

And the first named storm in 2004 didn't occur until the night of July 31st. Maybe we'll make mid August before the first storm this summer?

hopefully that is when our first invest is declared

[gatorcane]

I'm thinking it won't be until mid August before anything significant gets going in the Atlantic this year. I'm just going with climo on this statement however.

[Opal storm]

The weather now won't have any bearing. Remember in 2004, fronts were pushing down into Florida as late as August and the long-wave pattern changed for several weeks thereafter with no fronts and lots of ridging through October.

And the first named storm in 2004 didn't occur until the night of July 31st. Maybe we'll make mid August before the first storm this summer?

*imagines 2 and a half months of countless "this season is a dud" threads*

[AnnularCane]

The weather now won't have any bearing. Remember in 2004, fronts were pushing down into Florida as late as August and the long-wave pattern changed for several weeks thereafter with no fronts and lots of ridging through October.

And the first named storm in 2004 didn't occur until the night of July 31st. Maybe we'll make mid August before the first storm this summer?

*imagines 2 and a half months of countless "this season is a dud" threads*

I bet we're going to get those anyway. Heck, I remember 2005 having threads like that.

But you're probably right, it's going to be worse if nothing happens until mid-August.

[Rainband]

hopefully the whole season is a dud. It terms of Landfalls. I like fish.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree. It's alot drier. Not alot cooler in the day but feels nice at night. Almost can keep the air off till bed time. It reminds me of I think 98-99 May. Very dry. Acting more like La NIna then then Jan-March was. As for the season. I have no clue.

[Sanibel]

Wait til mid-May and the humid Amazonian heat blanket will arrive.

[boca]

The last time it rained was April 8th,27 days ago. I don't think rainy season will start on time this year.The first or second week in June it will probably start.

[fci]

The weather now won't have any bearing. Remember in 2004, fronts were pushing down into Florida as late as August and the long-wave pattern changed for several weeks thereafter with no fronts and lots of ridging through October.

And the first named storm in 2004 didn't occur until the night of July 31st. Maybe we'll make mid August before the first storm this summer?

*imagines 2 and a half months of countless "this season is a dud" threads*

Season Cancel.....

[boca]

Hey Sanibel by Thurs you should change the title thread to Dry Hot Florida.By that time the dew points should be in the lower 70's and a temp in the high 80's.

[gatorcane]

Wait til mid-May and the humid Amazonian heat blanket will arrive.

Right on time as you predicted (see bold below). For those that use the dry South Florida May theory to base probability of hurricane threats for South Florida, it looks like probability of South Florida seeing some tropical activity this hurricane season is proportionately increasing unless we can see some significant rainfall the second-half of May.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 051819
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY BENIGN WX PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS S FLA
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LARGE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE DESERT SW WHICH WILL KEEP AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE
GOFMEX AND NW FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY. LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, THE FORECORNERS LOW WEAKEN AS IT RIDES OVER THE GOFMEX
RIDGE AND S FLA WILL RETURN TO A NEARLY PERFECT ZONAL PATTERN FROM
MID WEEK INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUS, DRY WX PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SHOULD CLARIFY THAT AS LACK OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE GFS IS SHOWING DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 70S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS.

[JonathanBelles]

well, thats good for the fire dangers.

[boca]

Hey Gatorcane you live in Coral Springs now.That town has grown big time since I left in 1994.I think this hurricane season will have a little more to track than the last 2 years,in my opinion.

[gatorcane]

Hey Gatorcane you live in Coral Springs now.That town has grown big time since I left in 1994.I think this hurricane season will have a little more to track than the last 2 years,in my opinion.

Hi Boca, yes I do live there now but commute to Boca Raton still quite a bit

FYI, here is the dry south florida May theory explained for those that are interested:


http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/so ... /54367.htm

Snippet from article:

"When rainfall in May exceeds the regional average of 5 inches, he said the risk decreases"

[boca]

Yes I remember that article quite well.Our season depends on where the Bermuda high sets up and how strong it will be.

[Sanibel]

The Gulf keeps temperatures within a few degrees of the STT out here with strong breezes cooling things off. So it's a more marine type atmosphere than other places in Florida. That's what makes it like paradise.

The mid-May arrival of the humidity is weird. It always comes like clockwork within a few days of May 15th.