http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
Their's a round ball of convection S of Panama in the East Pacific. I know it will fade away, but it looks like very high cloud tops down there.Maybe the season will start 15 days early this year.
Nice convection S of Panama in E Pacific
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Re: Nice convection S of Panama in E Pacific
boca wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
Their's a round ball of convection S of Panama in the East Pacific. I know it will fade away, but it looks like very high cloud tops down there.Maybe the season will start 15 days early this year.
The GFS the last few runs has being trying to develop something down there in the short to medium range. I haven't checked todays 12Z run to see if the trend continues.
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Re: Nice convection S of Panama in E Pacific
flwxwatcher wrote:boca wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
Their's a round ball of convection S of Panama in the East Pacific. I know it will fade away, but it looks like very high cloud tops down there.Maybe the season will start 15 days early this year.
The GFS the last few runs has being trying to develop something down there in the short to medium range. I haven't checked todays 12Z run to see if the trend continues.
The GFS tries to develop Supercells into Tropical Storms so I wouldn't put much into it.
Preseason EPAC storms are alot rarer then preseason Atlantic storms, but nothing is impossible.
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Re: Nice convection S of Panama in E Pacific
Category 5 wrote:flwxwatcher wrote:boca wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
Their's a round ball of convection S of Panama in the East Pacific. I know it will fade away, but it looks like very high cloud tops down there.Maybe the season will start 15 days early this year.
The GFS the last few runs has being trying to develop something down there in the short to medium range. I haven't checked todays 12Z run to see if the trend continues.
The GFS tries to develop Supercells into Tropical Storms so I wouldn't put much into it.
Preseason EPAC storms are alot rarer then preseason Atlantic storms, but nothing is impossible.
The GFS is a lot better then it used to be, its the Canadian that develops Sea Breeze Thunderstorms into Category 5 Storms now days. It won't be long though until the models try and develop something in the SW Caribbean they always try and develop a May storm down there.

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- cycloneye
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Re: Nice convection S of Panama in E Pacific
boca,your initial post with the area of convection South of Panama is now well in the EPAC.Still plenty of scattered convection in the ITCZ around.Here is the discussion of this area by TPC:
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 94W. A 00Z QSCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THAT THE E-W ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGES IS AT THE SFC...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE LIGHT.
CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 92W-95W AND STRETCHED WITHIN THE ITCZ (OUTLINED
ABOVE). MANY OF THE NWP MODELS HAVE THIS WEAK FEATURE
INITIALIZED AND TRACK IT WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK LOW OR OPEN
TROUGH ON THE S PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE...AND THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 94W. A 00Z QSCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THAT THE E-W ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGES IS AT THE SFC...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE LIGHT.
CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 92W-95W AND STRETCHED WITHIN THE ITCZ (OUTLINED
ABOVE). MANY OF THE NWP MODELS HAVE THIS WEAK FEATURE
INITIALIZED AND TRACK IT WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK LOW OR OPEN
TROUGH ON THE S PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE...AND THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE.

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- hurricanetrack
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Just goes to show that we are indeed getting nearer to that magical date- May 15 out there and June 1 for the Atlantic. Can't wait. The score cards for both basins will be interesting to watch this year. Who here usually does those? One of you has those "Atlantic: 12 East-Pacific: 9" graphics that they post as their avatar. Nice!
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Re:
hurricanetrack wrote:Just goes to show that we are indeed getting nearer to that magical date- May 15 out there and June 1 for the Atlantic. Can't wait. The score cards for both basins will be interesting to watch this year. Who here usually does those? One of you has those "Atlantic: 12 East-Pacific: 9" graphics that they post as their avatar. Nice!
HURAKAN does 99% of the cool graphics.
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Re: Nice convection S of Panama in E Pacific
That convection south of Panama is very typical for this time of year. Nothing ever forms there but it could further east and like the earlier post said, after May 12th...or so.
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