Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[RL3AO]

From Jeff Masters blog

Comments from Chris Burt
I've been in regular communication about this disaster with Chris Burt, author of the excellent book Extreme Weather. He has been visiting Myanmar every year for 30 years, and has much insight on the situation there:

Note this: No word yet about casualties from the Mon or Karen States; those areas not in the Delta region but to the SE of Rangoon where a major storm surge and flooding from rains may have occurred.

The government considers these areas 'minority states' and these states have traditionally been looked down upon by ethnic Burmese, They are heavily populated. I will bet they will be the last areas to receive aid, and the last regions from which we hear news so far as storm damage is concerned.

[Ed Mahmoud]

TV news says so far the military junta has allowed a single Royal Thai Air Force C-130 Hercules land with relief supplies. More people will die because the junta is more concerned with protecting their image and power than the well being of their citizens.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/ ... yanmar.cnn

warning, very graphic video from cnn about the cyclone

[Chacor]

Can you please STOP bashing the IMD when it's clear they have nothing to do with how badly the junta warned its own citizens about the storm.

[HURAKAN]

There are no words to describe what Myanmar is going through right now. Very, very sad.

[StormspinnerD2]

IMD probably should not ahve said anything as they just made themselves look even more incompetent as they have admitted to underwarning Myanmar

They didn't under-warn them. They said they warned their government that the storm was coming, and the government didn't take action; in fact, the Myanmar Meteorological Department's website went down on April 29 and conveniently came back up yesterday.

[Chacor]

The BBC World Service's World Have Your Say discussed Nargis yesterday. You can download/stream the podcast here.

Description of last night's show:
WHYS 06 May 08: Will the cyclone disaster bring change to Burma?

22 thousand dead and 40 thousand more still missing; a major relief operation is underway in Burma after the cyclone hit the country on Saturday....we'll hear reaction and you reports. We also discuss if it's right to use a natural disaster to bring about change in a country?

Duration: 50mins | File Size: 23MB

[Ptarmigan]

There are no words to describe what Myanmar is going through right now. Very, very sad.

It's beyond comprehension what they are going through in Myanmar. I feel their pain. I can relate to their pain.

[StormspinnerD2]

Also remember that Myanmar's rulers never issued warnings of the storm's impending landfall so millions of people who might have evacuated a similar storm in another country were unaware of the danger

Most of the responsibility falls on the junta, but remember that even if they had issued a timely warning and ordered an evacuation of the coast.....if Myanmar's military rulers ordered YOU to leave your home and get on a transport headed inland....what would you have done? Except for the lucky few with black-market sattelite connections who could have seen the (surprisingly adequate) forecasts coming from India's IMD....anybody in their right mind would have taken their chances with the cyclone given the choice, I imagine.

Calling a cat 4/5 cyclone a cat 2 is not providing adequate warning at all. It was stated in the active storms thread that IMD was warning the government of Myanmar of this cyclone (a quote from IMD). Seems as if Myanmar took precautions for a cat 1, and they got a 4/5. If this is the case, the responsibility then lies primarily with IMD for spreading BOGUS information

Based on reports from the ground, Burma made practically no preparations at all, not even for a cat 1. Bashing IMD when it did all it could (they can't make the junta do anything) isn't going to change anything.

[Chacor]

Good god Derek. Seriously. IMD has nothing to do with this. Your IMD bashing is getting old.

[Derek Ortt]

Can you please STOP bashing the IMD when it's clear they have nothing to do with how badly the junta warned its own citizens about the storm.

There were cyclone warnings though. Are the junta innocent? of course not. They could have done far more However, IMD should also not be passing any blame as the information they provided to the Junta was not accurate.

The difference in intensity can have significant effects on preparations. Here in the USA, for a cat 1/2, the evacuations are typically minimal and are confined to the barrier islands. However, for a cat 4/5, typically millions are evecuated and the evacuations extend farther inland. A forecast that is off by 3 categories likely would result in massive loss of life here as well.

I am reserving judgement on the junta (though some of their actions with the relief are really trying my patience and are testing my ability to not interject politics) until it is clear exactly what they knew.

A question that needs to be addressed is why did Nargis kill so many while Mala killed so few. Why were there better evacuations for Mala than Nargis. These are questions that need to be addressed so this does not happen again

[Derek Ortt]

your IMD defending is absurred

ignore for a while

[JonathanBelles]

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

Watch it.

[Ptarmigan]

TV news says so far the military junta has allowed a single Royal Thai Air Force C-130 Hercules land with relief supplies. More people will die because the junta is more concerned with protecting their image and power than the well being of their citizens.

I have a feeling that the junta might be overthrown.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IMD seems to be off in intensity forecasts, and doesn't like to warn of storms that could affect their enemy Pakistan, but it doesn't seem that even a perfect forecast would have made much difference when dealing with an insular military dictatorship that doesn't have the best interests of its citizens as its first priority.

[Ad Novoxium]

A question that needs to be addressed is why did Nargis kill so many while Mala killed so few. Why were there better evacuations for Mala than Nargis. These are questions that need to be addressed so this does not happen again

Think it could be in revenge for the 2007 uprising? Mala struck long before the uprising hit a major chord, so its not out of the question.

[caribepr]

While I am obviously not up to pro standards (and admit that often!) on many weather issues...I do write on a couple of forums about local weather.
After reading a particularly frightening aspect of this, this was my post. There is much more to weather than just the weather, as noted in Haiti, for example. While this is written for the Caribbean islands, and my own, Culebra in particular, it applies to any coastal region with indigenous growth protecting shorelines.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
While this isn't about the daily weather per se, it is about what can happen when Nature is tampered with and the resulting consequences from a storm or hurricane. We, all of us reporting from our various islands, know that mangrove destruction isn't a rare occurrence and that vigilance is needed. This is what happens when we stop paying aggressive attention to the fragile places we call home. Reading, stunned, about what they are saying is one of the reasons behind the huge loss of life and property in Burma, I just felt I had to send out a word of warning and awareness. To those already in the good fight of "Save What's Left" you already know what I'm talking about.

For those who don't realize the importance of our mangroves, let Burma be a horrible, tragic lesson. For some here, who want to have a clear area on their shoreline property, mangroves may just seem to be another obstacle in the way. But those laws (we in the VI's and PR have these laws, I'm not sure about what every island country has...but if there are no laws, there should be!) against moving, cutting or clearing mangroves have been made for a reason. Nature isn't kind about rearranging her system of land protection. This isn't *tree & bunny hugger* drivel - as most environmental policies are not, this is about the most basic components of taking care of the place we live in. Money that buys land doesn't give the right to blithely overlook the very sound ways of Nature.

Developers: Take Note!

Residents and visitors: Take Note...if you are out on the water and see ANY destruction of mangroves along the shoreline, call Fish and Wildlife and/or DRN (or whatever your appropriate agency is called) and let them know where you've seen this happening. And then follow up to see if something is being done. Yes, one voice can be very loud, loud enough for others to join in, if one voice calls out in the first place.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7385315.stm

[yzerfan]

I'm trying to think of who the junta would accept help from. Maybe the Cubans could talk some sense into them? They're excellent at disaster stuff, and might be able to work with the idea of small, not terribly rich countries helping each other out.

[Chacor]

IMD warned 90 kts. A Burmese man on the BBC says they were warned for 40-45 mph winds. This has nothing to do with the IMD, as proven.

[Chacor]

IMD warned 90 kts. A Burmese man on the BBC says they were warned for 40-45 mph winds. This has nothing to do with the IMD, as proven.