Joe Bastardi Preliminary 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast

[Johnny]

With the way things have shaped up in the GOM the last couple of years, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more solid action in this area.

[hial2]

I think we're deviating into dangerous territory..back on topic please..

[mitchell]

off topic here, but has anyone figured out why JB's daily blog seems to veer off into rants about climate change, al gore, and undiscernable tirades nearly every day lately?

Just wondering... seemed like just a few short years ago, that blog was a really good place to go for insightful long range forecasts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

off topic here, but has anyone figured out why JB's daily blog seems to veer off into rants about climate change, al gore, and undiscernable tirades nearly every day lately?

Just wondering... seemed like just a few short years ago, that blog was a really good place to go for insightful long range forecasts.

You've noticed that too?

[MiamiensisWx]

With the way things have shaped up in the GOM the last couple of years, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more solid action in this area.

That's not a guarantee at all, and it's faulty logic.

"Florida and North Carolina have been hit over the last few years, so the trend will continue!"
"We haven't been struck in 100 years, so the chances will increase for a landfall during every strike free season!"
"We have been struck multiple times, so the odds favor no additionall landfalls."

All three variants of this logic have been soundly debunked during the past few seasons.

[Toadstool]

That's not a guarantee at all, and it's faulty logic.

"Florida and North Carolina have been hit over the last few years, so the trend will continue!"
"We haven't been struck in 100 years, so the chances will increase for a landfall during every strike free season!"
"We have been struck multiple times, so the odds favor no additionall landfalls."

All three variants of this logic have been soundly debunked during the past few seasons.

As covered by this topic:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96944

[flwxwatcher]

off topic here, but has anyone figured out why JB's daily blog seems to veer off into rants about climate change, al gore, and undiscernable tirades nearly every day lately?

Just wondering... seemed like just a few short years ago, that blog was a really good place to go for insightful long range forecasts.

You've noticed that too?

Agreed.. his blog is more rants then anything else now days.

[OuterBanker]

Personally, I'd like to see a point counterpoint with JB and Al Gore.