Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[StormspinnerD2]

I don't think that's the case, I believe late April through mid-May is one of the peaks of the year-round season in that area.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.citizensugar.com/1609388

Al Gore Ties Myanmar Cyclone to Global Warming

If that's the case, then the 1970 Bangladesh Cyclone was also because of GW. I support the GW debate, but I fear Al Gore has gone too far away with the idea.

[Ad Novoxium]

Al Gore seems, sadly, to have been overtaken by his ideology. Yes, maybe global warming had something to do with hurricanes, but now into the future, it seems that he's become a little mad involving the idea, like many people who, when one bad thing happens, immediately blame whatever they hate or crusade against. I still believe global warming though.

[Cyclone1]

For many of us, this is the deadliest cyclone in our lives.

There can't be that many people under 17 on here.

EDIT: There are probably quite a few actually.

I know of several, myself included.

EDIT: And yes, Al Gore is taking this waaaaaay too far. You can't blame a single hurricane on GW, or really, not even a hurricane season.

2005 was followed by 2006, ya know.

[zaqxsw75050]

seriously, if Al Gore would spend 5 minutes look up tropical cyclone in wikipedia would save himself a lot of embarrassment.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

For many of us, this is the deadliest cyclone in our lives.

There can't be that many people under 17 on here.

EDIT: There are probably quite a few actually.

I know of several, myself included.

EDIT: And yes, Al Gore is taking this waaaaaay too far. You can't blame a single hurricane on GW, or really, not even a hurricane season.

2005 was followed by 2006, ya know.

If Al Gore would spend 5 minutes looking through hurricane records, Wikipedia tropical cyclone area to name one. He would understand that hurricanes have been killing tens and even hundreds of thousands of people since humans moved onto the coastlines. In fact before satellites and all the cool stuff we enjoy today. What just happen to Burma, was a lot more likely in the old days, with a lot less warnings. I'm sorry, but it's just crazy to call a weather event that has been happening for god know how long to 'something' that supposed to be climatic-long term. In has nothing to do with short term weather.

[zaqxsw75050]

Jeff Master interview on Nargis

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvkFJDuZanY

[RL3AO]

Anomalies from May 1.

[StormspinnerD2]

France urges UN to force cyclone aid on Myanmar

Given Burma's previous history when it comes to accepting international aid, the UN will probably have to do this. The junta can't keep disallowing aid from certain countries in order to preserve its own image and "honour", especially when its own aid is very poor - seven helicopters is woefully inadequate.

[Derek Ortt]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080507/ts_ ... E1JsIE1vAI

Myanmar government is estimating 70,000 dead now

[Chacor]

Radio NZ: "She says it is not a confirmed death toll but recent estimates by the Myanmar government put the number of deaths at 70000"

It is still officially 22,000.

[wxmann_91]

some estimates of the death toll in one single province are at 80,000:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080508/ts ... eiUNVg.3QA

[Derek Ortt]

that 80,000 number seems to be solid, unfortunately.

The 100,000 estimate may unfortunately be on the low side

[Sanibel]

Yeah, and the two category 5er's into Central America were just lucky...

[Derek Ortt]

Another source to the 80,000 quoted by a military official

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st ... 37,00.html

Last report from Myanmar state TV is now 22980, but that appears to be from several hours ago

[Sanibel]

If anyone has a motion rerun of the satellite I'd like to see it to see what I missed and understand what a historic storm looks like.

[Derek Ortt]

might try the NRL site and look at the archives.

Compare it near landfall to Wilma and Felix and you'll see why I am convinced this was at least upper cat 4

[RattleMan]

might try the NRL site and look at the archives.

Here are the archives for anyone who can't find them: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/IO/01B.NARGIS/

Also:
Wilma: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc05/ATL/25L.WILMA/
Felix: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/

[zaqxsw75050]

<---- visible shot at landfall

Felix


Dean


Nargis

[Sanibel]

I've looked at many archived NRL shots. I think we screwed up here on a serious storm. The shot above shows what looks to be an explosive RI phase with hazed eye. Sort of like Katrina before its eye cleared out, but a completely different structure more like a compact Labor Day killer in RI phase. I don't blame people for missing it because the storm is deceptive with bad-looking structure and a weak-looking eye, but a look at the NRL shots shows it had the entire Bay as a feeding source as can be seen in the different satellite shots. I thought some were exaggerating about the intensity, but now that I see it I agree. This is one of those late bloomers that was probably well into category 4 waiting to blow the eye clear at category 5. The image above shows a storm in intense strengthening. It could be we weren't expecting it in May.*&^%

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/IO/01B.NARGIS/ir/geo/1km_bw/20080502.1230.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.01BNARGIS.115kts-937mb-159N-937E.100pc.jpg