Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[Sanibel]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/IO/01B.NARGIS/CloudSat/aquair/20080427.2021.cloudsat.94GHz



I know it doesn't always happen, but this is exactly why I keep repeating "Look for outflow feathering and a hazy look for potentially dangerous storms."

[Derek Ortt]

May is the peak of the season for this part of the world.

Those shots of Felix, Dean vs Nargis shows that Nargis almost certainly was rediculously underestimated

[zaqxsw75050]

so do you think it was a cat 5 at landfall Derek? what do you think the wind and pressure was?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

145 knots/907 millibars would be my guest. But this was with in a very small area. The system core likely only as big as Charley,Andrew in size. But hurricane force winds might of went out 100-110 nmi from the core. Also as you can see on the satellite pics, the worst "surge" appears to be as it hooked northeastward after crossing the delta. This is a huge area...In fact this may not of been as big of a area as the tsunumi, but the damage was nearly that with in the area's that happen.

[Sanibel]

The reason you see that slot to the SE of the core is because it ripped the core away from the rest of the structure because it was intensifying so much. In hindsite we missed some subtle but serious signs here.

If you compare shots the eye is contracting as it approches the Delta and a close look shows a thick solid core. RI.

[HurricaneBill]

Another Flickr photostream:

CAUTION: A couple of the pictures may be graphic.

Cyclone

[Chacor]

Latest: Burma has cleared American military planes and aid. Three UN planes still awaiting clearance.

[Chacor]

The BBC now reporting that contrary to earlier reports, the US says it has not yet been cleared to land aid in Burma. The BBC is quoting the American ambassador in Bangkok, Thailand, Mr Eric John, as saying “we and our Thai allies thought we had a decision from the Burmese leadership to let the C-130 in. As of now, we don’t have that decision; I don’t know whether they rescinded the decision or if there was a miscommunication.”

[yzerfan]

Reports are also that China is pressuring the junta to let aid workers in faster. I don't throw the description around lightly, but what we're seeing now from the Myanmar government seems to be genocide by neglect.

[ugaap]

It is sad that all the factors are going against the people of Myanmar. Cola forecast model is showing that Myanmar including the Cyclone affected areas of Myanmar could get more than 8 inches of rains during 9th May to 14th May. This could hamper various aid efforts and increase chances of outbreak of water borne disease.

[HurricaneRobert]

The Indian Ocean has two peaks - one in May and one in November. There will probably be another cyclone in the Bay of Bengal this month and a couple more by the end of the year. At the very least. Intense storms can happen outside of peak months since Gonu was a June storm.

[KWT]

Yep that amount of rainfall would indeed cause problem getting the aid into the region.

As for strength, I'd guess something close to what Charley was when it made landfall in 04, between 150-155mph IMO, certainly was a beast!

[RL3AO]

If anyone has a motion rerun of the satellite I'd like to see it to see what I missed and understand what a historic storm looks like.

From first being declared an invest to finishing as a wisp of clouds over South China.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_archive.asp?storm_identifier=IO012008

[Derek Ortt]

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080508/106938051.html

not sure if this is indicating that the 100,000+ is confirmed or not

[Ptarmigan]

I notice Nargis has a lot of intense and cooler clouds than Dean and Felix. It does appear to be a very intsene storm as Derek said.

[P.K.]

The BBC are reporting 1,500,000 people left homeless in Burma this evening on the evening news.

[Sanibel]

In review in looks like Nargis was bombing at landfall and was missed because of uncertain appearance.

[CrazyC83]

After looking at the photos, my guess for its peak (and landfall) intensity is 125 kt, with a pressure of 929mb.

[angelwing]

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... 143691.ece

[RL3AO]

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1143691.ece

Well, I don't get my TC death count from The Sun. Could it be correct? Maybe.