Increase of convection - 95L?

[Toni - 574]

Just within ahalf-hour looks like the convection is starting to increase and trying to wrap. If this continues tonight we may have a change of heart at the 11p update. This is getting way to close to the windwards for the NHC not to raise another eye brow. If it increases anymore I don't know what it is going to take for them to call this at least a TD and most likely should be a TS. IF they are going to wait on recon then they need to get out there now. I could be all wrong here but I don't really see this thing falling apart.Hey, if I am wrong it won't be the first time and it sure won't be the last. You know the saying open mouth and insert foot, yea, that's me, but sometimes I kinda like it.

[cycloneye]

Toni I think that if convection increases as it is doing now they will classify it at 5 AM to be sure convection doesn't die overnight but I may be wrong and they find a ship in the area and reports winds of tropical force then they may do it at 11 PM but if there is no ships to report the 5 AM time is fine..

[wxman57]

I noticed that burst of convection too. Let's see if it continues through the night. If so, then we may have a TS in the morning. Even though it appears to have banding now, QuickSCAT winds still show no low-level circulation. Can't wait for tomorrow's visible imagery.

[jabber]

Convection is on the rise. Lets see what the morning light brings.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Convection is increasing very fast. This thing could be clasified earlier...
The convection wrapped arround the center of the low and look's very deep at the moment. It's still developing and not dying out (convection) and it has cold cloud tops and a very healthy northeast band that feed the system. Again...It's growing very fast and steady! It could be upgraded before you think! (But you know NHC!)

Floater:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

No shear and no dry and stable airmass environment around it at this moment. On the contrary...it's being feed by humid air coming from bands on the southwest of the system and it's on an area of humid air on the low to mid levels, although it has an area of dry air west of it. We just have to wait to see what happen with the area of dry air ahead of it. But I think that the humidity will win the battle over the dry air. I think development of this system will be steady and constant. Also it's convection is spreading west-northwest.

Water vapor image:

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html


Cycloman.

[cycloneye]

Agree Cycloman that convection is spreading more to the north and northwest and that may be important for us here in Puerto Rico because the system may pass more close to the island than projected by the models so we have to watch the track of it once it crosses the islands.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Yes Cycloneye!! If it's convection spread northwest we could have some showers on Tuesday night to Wednesday but it will depend of the future development of this wave, if it gain tropical storm status and develops fast it's circulation could wrap the convection into the center and passing south of us it could pull the showers into the south of us toward the system leaving us without rain and with a hot and humid day by the time it pass our area. But systems like thisone are the ones we have to watch because it is far downthere and in a low latitude. It's overall circulation come from 10'n to almost 15'n at this moment and the center of the low appear to be on the 12'n. So if it start to move wnw then by the time it reach the islands could be arround Dominique-Martinique and this movement could bring the system closer to the southside of us in PR. With it's convection spreading northwest we could then receive strong showers and depending the status and strengh of the system we could also receive some gusty winds, but this is speculations at this time...Still we have to keep an eye on it during the next few days. The future development, storm status, and trajectory is something we'll find out very soon!!! Beleiveme!!!

Cycloman.

[wx247]

Looks much healthier than it did earlier this evening. I agree with Luis -- if it sustains this convection they will probably classify it as a TD or Claudette @ 5. If not, we will probably have to wait for Recon.

[Steve]

Still appears to be increasing at 2am CDT. I watched the Dvorak loop at TPC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

And their Ch. 4 IR loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's hard to tell on IR where the center of a weak system is, so I'm not reading anything into it except that the system appears to be growing stronger tonight.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

Despite the convective increase, I have seen no further signs of organization early this morning. The banding does not appear to be any better defined than it was last night and still no evidence of a surface circulation at this time.

[wxman57]

Looking at this morning's IR and visible (just got the first one) imagery, it sure looks like it got its act together overnight. In fact, it looks better than Bill ever did.

Derek, do you have access to ship/buoy plots in the vicinity of the system? I'm not at work yet and can't plot obs around the storm. I notice QuickSCAT winds haven't updated since 22Z yesterday. Banding is increasingly evident. Visible imagery shows what looks like a well-developed TS (though the image is a tad dark yet).

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/claudette.gif">

It's certailnly the best-developed tropioal wave I've ever seen.

I think the NHC may re-think its status once they see a few more visible images. It's less than 24hrs from hitting the islands now - time for TS warnings.

[Derek Ortt]

I havnt yet got into RSMAS, so I havnt had a chance to look at the ships and bouys via GARP. I will have a look in about a half hour, unless traffic on useless 1 is horrific as usual, lol

[wxman57]

I'm heading to work now. I'm only about 17 miles from the office, but it takes only 18 minutes to get there (even in Houston). The NHC may be upgrading this thing soon.

[vbhoutex]

Even though both of you gentlemen have much better access to some analysis information than I do, I have been checking as best I can this morring for our early morning update. All indications to me are that we have TS Claudette on our hands or will shortly. I have not been able to confirm a LLCC due to not finding late Quickscat passes in the area. However other satellite analysis does show TS force winds near the "Center" of this system which is obviously continuing to grow and establish itself. Although I do not like to second guess the experts we rely on at NOAA, NHC, etc. I am surprised recon has not been scheduled earlier than this afternoon. Personally I expect a special statement prior to recon since this sytem is getting pretty obvious and is approaching populated islands.

[wxman57]

Those latest Quickscat winds look "off". Note the maximum winds of 40kts around 50W instead of around 57-58W near the storm. Also note those winds are in black, indicating rain contaminated. Well, it's clear near 50W.