NW Pacific: TY Rammasun (0802/03W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: TY Rammasun (0802/03W; PAGASA Butchoy) - E of Philippines
WTPQ20 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 13.6N 131.9E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 230NM SOUTHWEST 160NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 18.2N 131.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 111800UTC 23.2N 134.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 121800UTC 29.8N 140.8E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 13.6N 131.9E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 230NM SOUTHWEST 160NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 18.2N 131.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 111800UTC 23.2N 134.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 121800UTC 29.8N 140.8E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
0 likes
-
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: TY Rammasun (0802/03W; PAGASA Butchoy) - E of Philippines
They're so lucky this one's a fishy.
0 likes
-
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: TY Rammasun (0802/03W; PAGASA Butchoy) - E of Philippines
Iwo Jima is uninhabited except by the Japanese navy.
0 likes
WTJP21 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0802 RAMMASUN (0802) 940 HPA
AT 14.5N 132.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 18.7N 131.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 23.3N 134.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 30.3N 141.4E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
85 kts/940 hPa.
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0802 RAMMASUN (0802) 940 HPA
AT 14.5N 132.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 18.7N 131.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 23.3N 134.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 30.3N 141.4E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
85 kts/940 hPa.
0 likes
JTWC 03z:
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
TAU 12: 125 kts G 150 kts
WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 03W (RAMMASUN) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH A 55-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY (65 KNOTS TO 120
KNOTS). OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TY 03W HAS INTENSIFIED BY 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECRAL IMAGERY AND A 092335Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT COOL-
ING CONVECTIVE TOPS WITHIN A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL AND EXCELLENT CON-
VECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND IS TRACKING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
B. TY 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED, MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUT-
FLOW WITH IMPROVING/EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE DISSIP-
ATION OF AN UPPER-LOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN 37 GHZ MICRO-
WAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE TWO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, HOWEVER, THE FORECAST INTENSITIES
HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) IS
NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN NEAR TAU 48.
B. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TURN
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW. TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH OUTFLOW FURTHER ENHANCED BY A
DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH TAU 72 AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF
THE COMPLETION OF ET NEAR TAU 72.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN
0 likes
Re: TY Rammasun (0802/03W; PAGASA Butchoy) - E of Philippines
I didn't even notice it. Quite a strong typhoon at 120 knots. I have not been paying much attention to this due to Nargis and the Myanmar disaster.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
0 likes
Re: TY Rammasun (0802/03W; PAGASA Butchoy) - E of Philippines
Pacific typhoons are amazing. They get that meaty donut look with a wide eye. This one really came together in the last 24 hours. There's juice out there. Wonder how this will translate to Atlantic?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest