Major Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak May 10 and 11th

[Ed Mahmoud]

Something will have to really weaken the cap for Houston area to get in on today's t-storm action.



Still a pretty stout cap forecast for Houston near peak heating per 12Z GFS:


Wanna see a really stout forecast cap- get a load of the 0Z GFS




I think Houston area will be hoping a thin line of showers, maybe storms will form right along and behind the front tomorrow morning. Maybe

[Ed Mahmoud]

For comparison, Monroe, Lousiana (I have been out drinking in Ruston with some LT students when I had a summer job in the Jena/Trout/Olla metroplex.


Not much inhibition, loads of instability and loads of wind available.

[CrazyC83]

Watch out - not PDS, it only covers initiation:

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG LA/AR BORDER
EAST TO CNTRL MS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WATCH AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EAST WITH
STRONG UPPER WAVE. INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL FUEL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS MOST LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES IN
THE WARM SECTOR...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ARE FORECAST
TO BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES WITH
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN SOME AREAS FORECAST TO EXCEED 200 M2/S2.
THUS...A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...CARBIN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (30%)



Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)



Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)

[Bunkertor]

For comparison, Monroe, Lousiana (I have been out drinking in Ruston with some LT students when I had a summer job in the Jena/Trout/Olla metroplex.

Hamburg celebrates 819th anniversary of the habour and I have had some beers too much, yesterday. So i´ll stay with s2k today. Might be the better choice.

But my favorite soccerteam lashed Hannover ´96 by 6 - 1. Maybe i should think over and have a drink

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS...ERN OK...WRN MO...NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101555Z - 101800Z

AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING POLAR IMPULSE...NOW STILL DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE IS IN
THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ASSOCIATED INHIBITION COULD STILL SLOW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POISED TO
MAKE A RAPID RETURN TO REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z. THIS PROBABLY
WILL OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY ABOVE A RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT...THAN
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH MAY REMAIN SLOWER TO DESTABILIZE.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
AN INCREASING RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
BETWEEN 18-21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WARM/MOISTENING
COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IF THIS
OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 05/10/2008


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

33779443 34939552 37369544 38539550 39039528 39039428
38339342 36569270 35389347

[Ed Mahmoud]

For comparison, Monroe, Lousiana (I have been out drinking in Ruston with some LT students when I had a summer job in the Jena/Trout/Olla metroplex.

Hamburg celebrates 819th anniversary of the habour and I have had some beers too much, yesterday. So i´ll stay with s2k today. Might be the better choice.

But my favorite soccerteam lashed Hannover ´96 by 6 - 1. Maybe i should think over and have a drink

Once the bad weather starts, no more talk of bier, football, harbours or cute Deutsch babes in dirndls...




Hmmm, hot links not appreciated
This url was hotlinked, with unpleasant results
http://berlinerstrassen.com/files/bilder/fiftyfootdirndlsmall.preview.JPG But it is a fine example of Teutonic female beauty and bier.

Ok, this




Edit to add: 8 beers. That fraulein is my hero!

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the 1630Z update...the question is will they upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

New watch - PDS?

Probably a lot of discussion at the SPC delaying the 1630Z.

[CrazyC83]

Surprisingly not PDS:

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOME OF THE
WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE PATTERN. MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORT RAPID NEAR-SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE ILKLEY TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION...WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHERMORE...STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL AND
PERSISTENT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...CARBIN


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOME OF THE
WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE PATTERN. MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORT RAPID NEAR-SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE ILKLEY TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION...WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHERMORE...STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL AND
PERSISTENT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...CARBIN


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 101626
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

TORNADO WATCH 293 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-071-087-089-101-115-129-131-141-
143-110000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0293.080510T1630Z-080511T0000Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN JOHNSON MADISON
MARION NEWTON POPE
SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON


KSC001-003-011-015-017-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-073-091-
099-107-111-121-125-133-139-205-207-110000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0293.080510T1630Z-080511T0000Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE COFFEY COWLEY
CRAWFORD DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JOHNSON
LABETTE LINN LYON
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
OSAGE WILSON WOODSON


MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-067-077-083-085-097-
101-105-109-119-141-145-153-167-185-209-213-217-225-229-
110000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0293.080510T1630Z-080511T0000Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY JASPER
JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MORGAN NEWTON
OZARK POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT


OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-105-111-113-115-117-131-135-143-
145-147-110000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0293.080510T1630Z-080511T0000Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON


ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...EAX...ICT...TOP...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW3
WW 293 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 101630Z - 110000Z
AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45NW BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 50NE HRO/HARRISON AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 95NM N/S /56ESE ICT - 52SE SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

LAT...LON 38819659 38369251 35189251 35639659

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.


Watch 293 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[Bunkertor]

Awaiting the 1630Z update...the question is will they upgrade.

I bet "no" upgrade - no pds until 2000z

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looked at the GFS sounding for Monroe. Very similar to WRF. Very favorable for tornadoes.


Upgrade for parts of AR and LA to HIGH RISK not out of tghe question.

[CrazyC83]

1630Z: Little change

[Bunkertor]

Once the bad weather starts, no more talk of bier, football, harbours or cute Deutsch babes in dirndls...

Edit to add: 8 beers. That fraulein is my hero!

My favorit

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 101635

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN OK...NERN TX...NRN LA...AR...SRN MO...SRN IL...WRN
KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN/CNTRL MS...NRN/CNTRL AL AND NRN/CNTRL
GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN LOW PLAINS
EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE GULF COAST STATES...

--SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SRN LOW PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE LOWER OH/LOWER
MS VALLEYS INTO CNTRL GULF STATES--

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTENSIFIES CONSIDERABLY WHILE
TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
ACROSS KS TODAY PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NRN
MO INTO CNTRL IL OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE ARKLAMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP NWD
THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK AND THE OZARK PLATEAU REGION AND
EVENTUALLY LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. ERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN MORE QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NRN GA/SC.
MEANWHILE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN KS SWD
INTO CNTRL OK AND THEN MORE SWWD INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL BY MID
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERSECTION WITH FRONT
OVER S-CNTRL OK SWD INTO CNTRL TX. EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO SURGE
EWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEYS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN LOW PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRESENT S OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWEST MEAN
MIXING RATIOS OF 13-15 G/KG. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY WITH MLCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG TO THE S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT
ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO...TO AS HIGH AS 2500-3500 J/KG AHEAD OF
DRYLINE OVER SERN OK...ERN TX INTO PORTIONS OF SRN AR AND LA.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN OK/NWRN TX AS
OF 15Z WILL TRANSLATE EWD TODAY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO INITIALLY
ELEVATED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF OK AND AR AS OF MID MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH
TIME TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES. THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...40-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME SIGNIFICANT/...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY
ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE.

STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S OVERNIGHT
WITH ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES.
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO CORRIDORS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM ERN KS INTO N-CNTRL OR NERN OK IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEIGHT
FALL CENTER/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG/N OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME.
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DISPLACEMENT OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WELL TO THE S.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE LATER TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE FLUX/DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AFTER 11/00Z AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU REGION INTO LOWER OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE
TO THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATING A
RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. AS SUCH...DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS /PERHAPS AN MCS/ MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE W WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/10/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1642Z (12:42PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[HarlequinBoy]

Weather in Tunica at 11:45 - 68 with mostly cloudy skies.
Weather in Greenville - 78 and clear.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MOC109-101745-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0209.080510T1642Z-080510T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT.

* AT 1140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR MILLER...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT
VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 32 AND 58.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3704 9406 3729 9405 3729 9399 3728 9398
3728 9361 3725 9361 3710 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 241DEG 50KT 3719 9388

$$

[Ed Mahmoud]

Weather in Tunica at 11:45 - 68 with mostly cloudy skies.
Weather in Greenville - 78 and clear.

I believe you will have a busy day later this afternoon and evening.


Seems like Northern Mississippi, Western Tennesee and Eastern Arkansas has been having quite the active severe season this Spring.

[6SpeedTA95]

well guys today could be quite interesting....

Watches have been going up for the last two hours and I would suspect that this afternoon we may have a few PDS watches issued for the areas in the moderate box.

[6SpeedTA95]

I'm really wondering why my area is already under a watch as far north and east as we are (I'm north of tulsa cllose to the kansas state line). Yet there's very minimal tornado threat on the SPC outlook. Yet the Tulsa updates have the risk at closer 10% for a tornado not the 2% listed on the SPC.