Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

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Re: Bay of Bengal: NARGIS (TC 01B) Update=+22,000 dead

#581 Postby loro-rojo » Fri May 09, 2008 11:03 pm

Sanibel wrote:I don't mean to escalate this in the wrong direction, but I would guess the worst coast areas have no radar. What exactly would they shoot them down with?


Burma's Air Force, which consist of 1960's and 1970's Soviet fighter pilots, could engage low altitude and slow speed planes doing drops over the area. No radar is really needed.. once the news of US air drops becomes public, the Burma's airforce could be dispatched to patrol the devastated areas.

This scenario is very far fetched. I think that international pressure will eventually get through these people, and they will not pull a foolish stunt like that...
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Re: Bay of Bengal: NARGIS (TC 01B) Update=+22,000 dead

#582 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 09, 2008 11:20 pm

We can guard the supply planes with F15's,16 and 22's. We still have a lot of those free at the moment.
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#583 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 09, 2008 11:30 pm

Matt,

can you please think before posting? You would start a full war and kill many more people than you would save. Please think, Matt
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Re:

#584 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 09, 2008 11:52 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Matt,

can you please think before posting? You would start a full war and kill many more people than you would save. Please think, Matt



If those people went freedom and they do, that is why they use sticks and stones and mass protest, but they have no guns to fight the Junta with. The best thing that could happen for these people is to airdrop a few hundred thousand guns into the worst effected area. Let the people over throw their government/dictatership. That is best and most mercful thing we can do.

To not do that is to keep these people under a dictatership that cares nothing for them.

This is what I think. I think we should allow the people to overthrow the government.
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Derek Ortt

#585 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat May 10, 2008 12:15 am

you need to understand the world far better than you do Matt

Your idea will cost the lives of millions of the people you want to save, if that even is your aim
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Re:

#586 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 10, 2008 12:19 am

Derek Ortt wrote:you need to understand the world far better than you do Matt

Your idea will cost the lives of millions of the people you want to save, if that even is your aim



So you want those people to live under a dictatership that has no love for their own people? If these people want freedom they must remove the Junta. Not to do it will keep them under it. What is so hard about that to understand??? I mean we live in this country that we have all this freedom, but we would not of ever had that if we did not fight for it.
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Re: Re:

#587 Postby StormspinnerD2 » Sat May 10, 2008 12:45 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote: So you want those people to live under a dictatership that has no love for their own people? If these people want freedom they must remove the Junta. Not to do it will keep them under it. What is so hard about that to understand??? I mean we live in this country that we have all this freedom, but we would not of ever had that if we did not fight for it.


You need to take some time and think before you post. Destabilising the area further would kill thousands or millions of people and defeat the purpose of providing aid in the first place. It's fairly difficult to aid people when there's no one left to aid; a destabilised political situation would also put whatever aid workers that did get into the country in similar danger.
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Re: Re:

#588 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 10, 2008 1:37 am

StormspinnerD2 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote: So you want those people to live under a dictatership that has no love for their own people? If these people want freedom they must remove the Junta. Not to do it will keep them under it. What is so hard about that to understand??? I mean we live in this country that we have all this freedom, but we would not of ever had that if we did not fight for it.


You need to take some time and think before you post. Destabilising the area further would kill thousands or millions of people and defeat the purpose of providing aid in the first place. It's fairly difficult to aid people when there's no one left to aid; a destabilised political situation would also put whatever aid workers that did get into the country in similar danger.




People are going to die anyways. In the people won't have any freedoms, because they will have to still deal with a dictatership. I thank god I live in America, that once had man that did what needed to be done. I understand that it could make things unstable. But people are dieing right now.
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#589 Postby Chacor » Sat May 10, 2008 1:44 am

Christ, Matt, that's enough please.

Let's please focus on the ongoing recovery effort now and stop talking about hypothetical situations.
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Re:

#590 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 10, 2008 1:54 am

Chacor wrote:Christ, Matt, that's enough please.

Let's please focus on the ongoing recovery effort now and stop talking about hypothetical situations.



Ok, I will stop.
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#591 Postby Chacor » Sat May 10, 2008 2:51 am

There's a new official toll now: "officially 23,335 people were killed and 37,019 are missing."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7393588.stm
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Re: Bay of Bengal: NARGIS (TC 01B) Update=+22,000 dead

#592 Postby P.K. » Sat May 10, 2008 3:24 am

Press release from RSMC New Dehli issued yesterday.

PRESS RELEASE

New Delhi, 09 May 2008

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “NARGIS”



IMD New Delhi works as a Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) – Tropical Cyclones for World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)/ Ecomonic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Panel Member countries of the region. As part of our operational responsibilities, we issue Tropical Weather Outlook and Tropical Cyclone Advisories to all the member countries viz Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan, Oman, Srilanka, Thailand and Myanmar. The summary of the bulletins issued by RSMC, New Delhi in the above mentioned cyclone is given below.



Bulletins issued by RSMC, New Delhi:

1. Likely formation of low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and its further intensification was indicated in the daily bulletin issued from RSMC New Delhi and posted on our web-site from 23rd April onwards.

2. The first special tropical weather outlook for the WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries including Myanmar intimating the formation depression over the Bay of Bengal was issued at 0600 UTC of 27th April based on observations of 0300 UTC. Another special tropical weather outlook indicating the intensification of the system to deep depression stage apart from other information like location and likely intensification, movement, maximum sustained wind and sea condition due to the system was issued in the same evening and night.

3. The tropical cyclone advisories to WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries including Myanmar were issued in every three hourly interval from 28th April morning onwards till morning of 3rd May.

4. The first tropical cyclone advisory indicating landfall over Myanmar coast was issued at 0600 UTC of 1ST May based on observations of 0300 UTC. It was indicated in the bulletin that the system would cross Myanmar coast between lat 16 and 180N around night of 2nd May 2008.

5. On 2nd May morning, it was indicated that the system would cross Myanmar coast near 160N around evening of the same day.

6. The forecast for maximum intensity (T 5.0) corresponding to maximum sustained wind speed of 90 knots was predicted and maintained in the tropical cyclone advisories for WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries from 2100 UTC of 1st May based on observations of 1800 UTC.

7. The total number of operational bulletins issued for this cyclone are as follows.



International

Tropical Weather Outlook – 3 Nos.

Tropical Cyclone Advisories – 41 Nos.

Tropical Cyclone Advisories for aviation use – 19 Nos.



8. It is also to inform you that the very severe cyclonic storm, “NARGIS” crossed southwest coast of Myanmar between 1200 to 1400 UTC of 2nd May, 08 near lat. 16.00 N. The track of very severe cyclonic storm, “NARGIS” is given in enclosure-I.

9. WMO has appreciated the effort made by New Delhi office of IMD in providing the tropical cyclone advisories to Myanmar. The excerpt of press release of WMO in this regard is enclosed herewith (enclosure-II).







Dr. Ajit Tyagi

Director General of Meteorology


Enclosure-II
Press Release No. 814

For use of the information media
Not an official record
WMO network provided timely cyclone alerts to Myanmar, needs resources for improving storm surge warnings

GENEVA, 9 May 2008 (WMO) – The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of Myanmar started to issue forecasts on cyclone Nargis as of 27 April, several days ahead of landfall, on the basis of information provided through the WMO network, according to information the Organization received today from the Permanent Representative of Myanmar with WMO, Mr Tun Lwin, Director-General of DMH.

However, the storm surge was the major cause of the disaster as the cyclone hit the most populous and low-lying area and the cyclone maintained its strength (category 2 or above) and moved quickly. The storm surge affected not only the coastal area but also about 30-40 km inland. A problem was the lack of a radar network to monitor the storm.



The DMH, which recently benefited from an upgrading of the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) through WMO, received accurate information on the cyclone from several WMO centres, in particular the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) New Delhi. DMH received satellite images from India and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Specialized Meteorological Centre (Singapore) through the Internet. Warnings were provided to authorities as of 29 April. A press briefing was given to national media on 1 May and newspaper headlines on 2 May, the day of landfall, focused on the cyclone.

The New Delhi Office of the India Meteorological Department started to issue RSMC advisories at 00 UTC every 3 hours on 27 April, which continued until 06 UTC on 3 May. The last advisory said “the status of Nargis is a Severe Cyclonic Storm (50 knots) about 90 km south-west of Yangon”. The first forecast of landfall was issued at 06UTC on 1 May (36 hours in advance of landfall), which said that “Nargis will cross the Myanmar coast between 16 to 18 degrees north by the night of 2 May”. At 21 UTC of 1 May, it was forecast that “the maximum wind speed at landfall is expected to be 90 knots”. At 09 UTC on 2 May, the forecast was that “Nargis will cross near 16 degree North by 12 UTC with 90 knots wind speed”.


For further details please visit WMO web-site (http://www.wmo.ch/pages/mediacentre/pre ... ex_en.html)


http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/pressrelease.htm
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#593 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat May 10, 2008 3:25 am

Grim....the 00z ECMWF run develops a tropical storm of the west coast of Burma in about 144-168 hours. A long way off but not a good thing to see. Let's hope the model backs off this and nothing materialises.
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Re: Bay of Bengal: NARGIS (TC 01B) Update=+22,000 dead

#594 Postby ugaap » Sat May 10, 2008 3:36 am

Heavy to very heavy rains about 8 to 10 inches are forecast by COLA model from 10th to 15th May for Cyclone affected areas of Myanmar. This would hamper aid work for the people of Myanmar.
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#595 Postby KWT » Sat May 10, 2008 3:45 am

Yep we've got to pray typhoon hunter that it doesn't occur because all the extra rain would be extremely bad for any relief effort and even a tropical storm could cause some big problems.
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Re: Bay of Bengal: NARGIS (TC 01B) Update= 23,335 dead

#596 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 10, 2008 11:38 am

CYCLONE NARGIS MAY BRING CHANGE IN ITS DESTRUCTIVE WAKE
By Georgie Anne Geyer
Thu May 8, 7:57 PM ET

WASHINGTON -- One can only wonder how a country like Myanmar -- historically known as Burma -- can bear all the miseries being heaped upon it. On top of the savage military dictatorship that has ruled it since 1990 comes Cyclone Nargis, another of those destructive Southeast Asian storms, killing perhaps as many as 100,000 people.

The military, with its 400,000 troops ruling a country of impoverished people, rent with the HIV/AIDS epidemic and holding at least 60,000 people in forced labor battalions, as of this writing has not allowed American or European aid into the country even to begin to stem the extraordinary suffering.

I got into Burma by chance seven years ago, when I was writing a book on the origins of various cats. While I was interested in writing about the Burmese situation, I was interested mostly in the history of the Burmese cat.

At the airport I was questioned by a Soviet-style Burmese female customs agent about what I was doing there. I said, "I'm writing about cats." Looking at me with distrust, she said in some bewilderment, "But we don't have any cats." It turned out they didn't, but that is another story, and I still relish the confusion I inflicted upon her in that miserable country.

I also found it be one of the most beautiful lands in the world, a once-magical place that was called "the Golden Land" in honor of its riches in timber, gold and rubies.

As you drive into the capital of Yangon, better known by its former name of Rangoon, you are first overtaken by the magnificence of the Shwedagon Pagoda that overlooks the city. More than 300 feet high, it is covered with gold and towers over the city like some mystical Buddhist being. (Reports that the tower was damaged by the cyclone remain unconfirmed.)

Yangon itself is a gracious city of boulevards lined with handsome public buildings, most built by the British colonialists who ruled the country from 1886 until World War II. In fact, entering the city, you feel as if time has simply stopped. It is 1945, and isn't that Ronald Colman stepping out of an alley?

To the north, the valleys of the Bagan region are filled with thousands of pagodas in one of the great historic sites of the world.

But Burma has been cursed with tribalism. With more than 50 different tribes and 100 indigenous languages (not dialects, but actual languages), Myanmar is an easy country to repress. But it is also a rich soil for insurgent tribal armies fighting against the military government -- at one point, the military regime faced 17 of them and, though agreements have been signed between Yangon and the tribes, any real peace is elusive in a land with an abysmally low per capita income of $180.

Strangest of all is the fact that the people refer to the military government as the "invisible government." You don't see it until it strikes, usually brutally and without warning. But you feel everywhere the tiresome, banal repression of the State Peace and Development Council, formerly known as SLORC. The top generals are known as Nos. 1, 2 and 3, and they are so identified in the papers. They trust one another so little that the top men sleep every night in the same military compound, each one keeping an open eye on the others.

They have now constructed an elegant "capital" for themselves, far in the interior, called Naypyidaw or "Abode of the Kings." The military under "the leader," Thang Shwe, also known as "Senior General No. 1," constantly identifies itself with the former kings of Burma and employs their beliefs in and uses of astrology.

But the military rulers also have a No. 1 enemy, and she is a slight, beautiful, deeply intelligent woman named Aung San Suu Kyi, generally known as "the lady." Her legitimacy as a leader comes both from her determination and from the fact that she is the daughter of the "George Washington of Burma," Gen. Aung San, founder of the original Burmese military who was mysteriously assassinated on July 19, 1947, leaving the way open to the military's less attractive elements.

Essentially under house arrest in a dwelling that sits beside one of the beautiful lakes of Rangoon, she nevertheless stands as a symbol of what Burma could become, if ...

But it's a big "if." Riots, demonstrations, U.N. intervention, foreign diplomacy -- all have been tried, and nothing has worked to change the rigid and cruel military mind, which sees itself as guardian of the country from ethnic chaos within and intervention from the outside.

Yet what human hands have been unable to accomplish, perhaps the hand of God, in the form of this cyclone, can. Strange and destructive natural disasters can often change situations dramatically, as happened recently in parts of Indonesia.

Laura Bush admirably addressed the question this week, criticizing the Burmese military for its lack of response; she is an admirer of "the lady" from reading the Nobel Peace laureate's writings.

In Southeast Asia, where China has accomplished a 10 percent growth rate for several years, where Singapore has become the model of development for the world, and where countries such as once ethnically torn Malaysia have found ways to thrive, Myanmar is more and more an anomaly.

So this could be the moment, or at least "a" moment for Burma. Cannot the nations of the West, and Myanmar's Asian neighbors -- and above all, the Western oil companies that still do business with Burma -- use this opportunity to open up this imprisoned land and somehow manipulate or force change? It is long past the time when such a regime and such frightful suffering should be accepted by the world.
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Re: Bay of Bengal: NARGIS (TC 01B) Update= 23,335 dead

#597 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Sat May 10, 2008 7:19 pm

TY Rammasun
Image
the cloud top isn't as cold as Nargis. one reason i think Nargis was at least a high end cat 4
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Re: Bay of Bengal: NARGIS (TC 01B) Update= 23,335 dead

#598 Postby Sanibel » Sat May 10, 2008 11:30 pm

The rain could actually help some people get clean water to survive.
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#599 Postby Chacor » Sun May 11, 2008 2:24 am

Image
A village 16 miles south of Rangoon. Left: in 2002; right: this week.

Also, shamefully:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/a ... ge_id=1811

At lunchtime yesterday – seven days after Cyclone Nargis killed an estimated 100,000-plus people and left up to 1.5 million homeless – Burma's junta finally allowed in two UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) trucks carrying 20 tons of tents and plastic sheeting, enough to shelter 10,000 victims.

It had taken five days of pleading and cajoling. But at 1pm local time, to the undisguised delight of the aid workers, the aid was finally allowed into Burma from Mae Sot in northern Thailand on condition no aid workers were on board.

Once the border was crossed, the precious cargo was in the hands of the military. UN staff prayed it would be immediately transferred to army trucks and rushed to the stricken Irrawaddy Delta where every hour is costing lives.

Sharing at least some of their hope, I defied a ban on foreign journalists to cross into Burma ahead of the trucks – and saw a shameful debacle that showed the extent of the hated junta's callous indifference to its dying thousands.

From the Burma side of a crossing where foreigners are allowed to visit for a few hours, usually followed by a pathetic collection of government spies, I watched the trucks leave Thailand.

Inside were tents and sheeting drawn from stockpiles usually used in border camps where, ironically, refugees fleeing persecution at the hands of the Burmese generals are homed. Their easy availability was the result of the generals' four decades of brutality.

All the same, each makeshift home could provide a lifeline for families of up to ten and should have been seen as a godsend for the military government on its self-proclaimed mission to handle the aftermath of the disaster without the help of international rescue teams.

But the moment the trucks were out of sight of the border post, the true importance that the junta attached to the delivery became ominously apparent, as they were directed off the main road and along a two-mile dirt track to a semi-deserted monastery and pagoda.

As our taxi bumped along in a cloud of dust behind the trucks, I still expected to find army lorries and soldiers ready to unload the cargo and take it to the cyclone-hit communities.

Surely even the most xenophobic regime could not pass up the chance to save lives once the tools to do so were in its hands.

But underestimating the junta's ability to appall is always a mistake.

There were no soldiers and no trucks at the monastery, just a languid, uninterested young major and two junior soldiers.

I watched as they casually waved the trucks to parking bays without even looking to see what they contained, then ambled back to a reception area to resume the card playing and tea drinking that had been so rudely interrupted.

From the end of the driveway, I watched to see when the relief operation would begin. But nothing happened, just elderly monks and casually-dressed government officials wandering around, seeming to ignore the UN trucks.

My presence had been noticed, so I walked up and introduced myself and congratulated them on securing the aid. When would it be leaving for the disaster area, I asked?

Beaming with self-importance, the young major – Myat Hdut Aye – explained that nothing more would be happening for the time being.


Basically, the aid was transported to an abandoned monastery and dumped.
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Re: Bay of Bengal: NARGIS (TC 01B) Update= 23,335 dead

#600 Postby Ad Novoxium » Sun May 11, 2008 5:36 am

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080511/ap_on_re_as/myanmar
News article about aid and Burma from Yahoo news. Not my closest source of news, but one statement here scares me:

Oxfam regional chief Sarah Ireland said "there are all the factors" for a public health catastrophe." She said the death toll from the May 3 cyclone is likely to be 100,000 and the number could multiply by 15 times in the coming period.


1,500,000 deaths...due to both a cyclone and gross negligence on the part of the junta. Even Bhola didn't have this bad a number, and I desperately pray this number never sees the light of day as a death toll. If this becomes the toll (and it likely will not), it will become the third (possibly second deadliest) natural disaster ever, next only to the 1887 and 1931 Yellow River Floods in China.
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