I think it's a goner

OtherHD · #1 Postby **OtherHD** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:21 am

RIP to our little wave that couldn't. It looks horrible on satellite images and it's about to enter the TZOD (Tropical Zone of Death). Any low that recon finds will probably be small and weak and won't last very long anyway. It has a chance if it can reach the central-western Caribbean, as long as the dry air doesn't follow it.

:cry:

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:24 am

Never say never..remember lili??? :roll:

She disappeared only to come back and ...... you know the rest!! :o :wink:

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:27 am

You said it OtherHD - not me. Can we just have patience enough to see what recon finds without proclaim its a TD or its a goner. One reason I like the tropics is I can follow things developing, weakening, turning and so on and so forth - this is what its all about.

Comments welcome.

Patricia

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:30 am

ticka1 wrote:You said it OtherHD - not me. Can we just have patience enough to see what recon finds without proclaim its a TD or its a goner. One reason I like the tropics is I can follow things developing, weakening, turning and so on and so forth - this is what its all about.

Comments welcome.

Patricia

I agree TICKA!!! BTW..i know it's off topic but how is your back last I heard it was hurting you real bad!!! :?:

Hope it's better!! :wink:

Guest · #5 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:33 am

I interrupt this broadcast message for an update for Rainband.

Yes I was in alot of pain last week Rainband - but went back to the doctor - got some medication - started exercising and getting more physical activity (but not overdoing it) and its hurting less - thanks for asking. I have to lose weight per the doctor's orders. So starting today!!!!

Now back to the tropics!!!!!

OtherHD · #6 Postby **OtherHD** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:34 am

And how about everyone else that has been saying it's a TD without evidence from Recon? I don't see you jumping on their case. Or is it because I said it wouldn't become a TD... I'm just calling it as I see it. If you don't want me posting my thoughts, then just say so and I'll stay in the chatroom.

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 11:46 am

well don't get upset - I was just making a statement. POST AWAY.

southerngale · #8 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 12:03 pm

I thought it was already a TD yesterday/last night...but what do I know? :roll:

It has looked more ragged the last few hours, however the shape looks better in the latest frame......to me. We'll see if that holds up in the next few frames or if it's just an illusion....lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

hurricanedude · #9 Postby **hurricanedude** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 12:43 pm

Hey HD, I hereby demote you to the OTHERHD again as I am now THE ONLY DUDE, LOL....you know what Im talking about...kiddo
as far as the tropical wave is concerned, I have certainly seen better but this season appears to be one with its own mind, the usual factors may not be in play this season, I mean look, we had a TS in April, thats about as rare as me being quiet for 5 minutes LOL

OtherHD · #10 Postby **OtherHD** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 12:52 pm

Thanks dude...I guess?? :? :lol:

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 12:58 pm

There is a lot of convection that can wrap around the center. This is a better setup than no convection or a little convection around a good circulation center.

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 2:56 pm

ticka1 wrote:I interrupt this broadcast message for an update for Rainband.

Yes I was in alot of pain last week Rainband - but went back to the doctor - got some medication - started exercising and getting more physical activity (but not overdoing it) and its hurting less - thanks for asking. I have to lose weight per the doctor's orders. So starting today!!!!

Now back to the tropics!!!!!

Good news!!!!!! Hope you feel much better soon!!!!!! :wink:

Colin · #13 Postby **Colin** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 3:18 pm

We'll have to see what the recon. says before we say anything...but I agree, it doesn't look too good right now.

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 5:30 pm

Recon did not find a closed circulation, but this thing is FAR FROM A GONER!!!!!!

AND NOW WILL THE REAL HURRICANED DUDE PLEASE STAND UP!!!!
WELCOME HOME MIKE!!!!!

rainstorm · #15 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 5:49 pm

i think dude is right

#16 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 8:28 pm

It just so happens that the recon plane arrived when this system was at its poorest organization in the past 36 hours. Clearly, the circulation was there at sunrise today, but it faded fast between the time the plane left Biloxi and its arrival in the islands. Also, I noted a significant jump in forward speed today, closer to 25kts. That certainly didn't help the circulation. So I wouldn't be so quick to say "see, the recon found no circulation so it never was a TD". I agree that when the plane arrived it was only a wave, as it is now. And as long as it is moving at close to 25 kts it's not likely to develop. This forward speed should decrease considerably by around 72 hrs (south of Jamaica). So any development would likely occur after then.

By the way, did anyone catch Joe Bastardi's Tropical Weather Outlook today? He really lashed out at the NHC for inconsistency. He's always fun to watch. But doesn't he look like he slept under a bridge somewhere before each video? :lol:

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 8:44 pm

What worries me now is not the convection which is making a comeback, but the very fast motion ... which wxman57 alluded to already ... and yes, he's very correct in regards of systems having a hard time closing off a circulation with such forward momentum ... also, of note ... the ULL ahead of it is also moving west but slower than Invest 95L ...

Between last night and tonight's WV imagery ... (The tropical RAMSDIS site stopped updating for a while ... but clearly shows the dry air is eroding .. has eroded from 24 hours ago ... )

Thunder44 · #18 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 8:45 pm

I agree with you wxman57 that it the NHC recon plane did arrive when it was poorly organzied. I don't think the storm speed will too much of factor it's development though.

Yeah, I saw JB tropical outlook. He was really angry at the NHC earlier today. He thought the recon was going to find a TS today. But he has now conceided that NHC "assessment" on this system is correct and commends Stacey Stewart again. He still thinks it will develop once west of 75N.

grentz7721 · #19 Postby **grentz7721** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 9:11 pm

That wave is still there from the latest satellite pictures. It could become a
TD later this week.

#20 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 07, 2003 10:38 pm

Oh, sure, the wave is still there, and it has the same chance of development as any other wave. But it's a rare system that develops with a forward speed of 25 kts. Allen developed in 1980, maintained a forward speed of 20-25kts and attained Cat 5 strength, but that's certainly not the norm. Of course, the ridge to the north weakens after 48-72hrs as that front approaches the east coast. So the easterly trades will drop considerably, allowing for slower WNW movement. It's not likely to develop until then.

Really, I need a few weeks to get some work done - no time for storms.

I think it's a goner

I think it's a goner

Recon

Yep

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