![Image](http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0408.gif)
WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062200Z MAY 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 123.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.7N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.7N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.6N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.2N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 123.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE 25 KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER.
TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWARD NEAR TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL ACCELERATE. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION
PRIOR TO TAU 96. THE DEPRESSION WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL
SHEAR AFTER TAU 48. TD 04W WILL WEAKEN AFTER THIS TIME DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 140030Z MAY 08 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140030) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z,
150300Z AND 150900Z.//
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