SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner at 10:14 AM:

Band of training supercells has developed along a SW to NE line from NE Fayette Co. to SW Walker Co. Newly issued tornado warning for Washington Co. as nasty supercell is showing strong rotation on SW flank just N of the Austin Co line. Radar velocity data is showing a strong velocity couplet with reflectivity showing hints of a hook echo.

Cells have been training along this line now for 1-2 hours and rainfall totals of 1-3” has fallen…hence Flash Flood Warning has been required for Fayette Co. and one may be needed shortly for Washington Co.

Also noted boundary…possible gravity wave along the coast from NE Chambers Co. to N Galveston Co. to SW Wharton Co. and showers have attempted to develop along this line.

While line of convection is currently anchored just north and NW of the metro areas favorable low level inflow off the Gulf coupled with approaching disturbance and exit of meso vortex to the NE may allow this line to sink very slowly southward bringing core of excessive rainfall and severe threat deeper into the region and across metro Houston. Will need to watch radar trends very closely over the next 1-2 hours.

[jasons2k]

Radar showing significant circulation with the cell moving towards Lake Livingston.

[Ed Mahmoud]

HGX radar shows the apparent tornado crossing I-45 right about now. Almost right on the Walker-Montgomery county line

At 10:10 am, law enforcement tracked a funnel between New Waverly and I-45, per HGX.

[jasons2k]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1038 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 1033 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CUT AND SHOOT..AND MOVING
EAST AT 27 MPH. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Jason- re the Jeff Linder discussion- the entire area of rain is creeping Southeast closer to Houston.


I wonder if SPC and NWS HGX will add Harris County to the watch eventually.

[jasons2k]

Outflow now showing-up on radar pushing SE along the 290 corridor - from near Jersey Village to Spring...

[Ed Mahmoud]

TXC373-407-141645-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080514T1645Z/
POLK TX-SAN JACINTO TX-
1119 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN SAN JACINTO AND SOUTHERN
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

AT 1115 AM CDT... SAN JACINTO COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A
POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR THE 5 ACRES SUBDIVSION IN SHEPARD. IN ADDITION
PEA SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN COLDSPRING. THIS TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GOODRICH...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LIVINGSTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GOODRICH...LIVINGSTON...SEGNO...LEGGETT...LAKE LIVINGSTON STATE
PARK...ALABAMA-COUSHATTA RESERVATION...SHEPHERD AND SEVEN OAKS

[southerngale]

I wonder if we'll have baseball games tonight.... sometimes the rain misses us, even when it's expected. I'll be leaving in about an hour and a half and out and about all afternoon, so hopefully it won't be too bad.

Tornado Watch

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 319
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1113 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXC199-142000-
/O.EXA.KLCH.TO.A.0319.000000T0000Z-080514T2000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 319 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

HARDIN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON AND SILSBEE.

Tornado Watch

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 319
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1113 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

LAC011-079-115-TXC241-351-457-142000-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.A.0319.000000T0000Z-080514T2000Z/

TORNADO WATCH 319 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 PARISHES

IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA

RAPIDES

IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA

BEAUREGARD

IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA

VERNON

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

JASPER NEWTON TYLER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...BUNA...COLMESNEIL...
DE RIDDER...DEWEYVILLE...JASPER...KIRBYVILLE...LEESVILLE...
NEW LLANO...NEWTON...PINEVILLE AND WOODVILLE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sometime in the last hour when I wasn't looking, they added Harris County to the tornado watch.

[southerngale]

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
TXC199-457-141730-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0013.080514T1654Z-080514T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES WILDWOOD...
SOUTHERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...WARREN...FRED...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1149 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES WEST OF
WILDWOOD...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTH OF THICKET...MOVING EAST AT 42
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WARREN AND WILDWOOD BY 1210 PM CDT...
FRED BY 1230 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3050 9455 3060 9457 3069 9459 3072 9415
3043 9417 3042 9471 3050 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 271DEG 36KT 3058 9462

[Ed Mahmoud]

Mean looking cell Northwest of Carlsbad, New Mexico where the dewpoint is 44ºF.


That must be a pretty strong upper low.

[jasons2k]

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 319
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXC201-291-339-373-407-142000-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.A.0319.000000T0000Z-080514T2000Z/

TORNADO WATCH 319 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

HARRIS LIBERTY MONTGOMERY
POLK SAN JACINTO

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...CONROE...
CORRIGAN...DAYTON...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LIBERTY...
LIVINGSTON...ONALASKA...PASADENA...SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...
TOMBALL AND WILLIS.

[southerngale]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-141800-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0067.080514T1707Z-080514T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...THICKET...SILSBEE...SARATOGA...LUMBERTON...
KOUNTZE...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THICKET...AND MOVING EAST AT
38 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SARATOGA BY 1220 PM CDT...
KOUNTZE BY 1240 PM CDT...
SILSBEE AND 7 MILES NORTH OF LUMBERTON BY 1255 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3042 9471 3042 9412 3023 9413 3026 9467
3040 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 269DEG 33KT 3036 9469

[southerngale]

Should more storms continue to develop this afternoon or is this pretty much it when this current mess goes through?

[jasons2k]

It looks like the outflow has stalled right over metro Houston - could be quite an interesting afternoon!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Should more storms continue to develop this afternoon or is this pretty much it when this current mess goes through?

Re: Houston area severe
New storms developing out near Midland, and a few cells just across the river in Mexico from Laredo area, and the sun just came back out in the Galleria, before 2 pm actual Sun time (daylight savings time less one hour), so maybe something will pop locally before dark, or the West Texas/Mexico stuff will move in after dark.


Regional radar loop

[Yankeegirl]

Morning weather shifting east as air mass reloads.

Several wind damage reports received from the northern counties this morning. Strong heating has commenced behind the morning MCS across SC and C TX and visible images show rapid development of cumulus and towering cumulus clouds along with recent thunderstorms explosions in NE Mexico and through W and SW TX. Main upper trough centered just NNE of El Paso moving eastward with strong lift overspreading areas that have recovered from morning convection.

Expect large MCS to congeal over WC TX this evening and race eastward overnight with multiple bow echoes and LEWPS. Increasing Gulf inflow of very moist air mass as noted on visible images should help sustain the complex to the coast. Outflow boundary over the area from morning convection should wash out as low level SE flow re-establishes itself. Feel the main threat will be wind damage as 120kt jet streak plows into SW TX this evening and some of this may be brought to the surface as straight line winds of 60-80mph. Timing of complex looks to be after 300am and through 900am Thursday. Forward motion may slow some as it reaches SE TX…however potential bows will race E and ESE out ahead of the main line.

Still looking at a heavy rainfall event set up on Thursday as storm complex slows over SE TX and flow becomes parallel to stalling surface boundaries. The devil is in the meso scale and much like today some places can get nailed while others stay dry.


New from Jeff.... Guess more overnight....

[southerngale]

Another tornado watch... hopefully, this one will be as uneventful as the one I had earlier today (well, Wednesday). I enjoy thunderstorms.... but don't want anything to do with a tornado!

A lot of counties are included... stay safe, everyone!

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

TORNADO WATCH 324 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC005-037-041-051-063-067-073-183-185-199-203-225-241-291-313-
315-339-343-347-351-365-373-401-403-405-407-419-423-449-455-457-
459-471-477-499-151500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0324.080515T0615Z-080515T1500Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA BOWIE BRAZOS
BURLESON CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE GREGG GRIMES
HARDIN HARRISON HOUSTON
JASPER LIBERTY MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY MORRIS
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA
POLK RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY
SMITH TITUS TRINITY
TYLER UPSHUR WALKER
WASHINGTON WOOD
$$


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...LCH...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 115 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323...

DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OVER E CNTRL AND
NE TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ENE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
MODERATE WSW MID-LVL FLOW AND ASCENT ON SE SIDE OF EJECTING UPR
TROUGH... COUPLED WITH MOIST SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...CORFIDI

[southerngale]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC241-457-150745-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0071.080515T0706Z-080515T0745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
206 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...ROCKLAND...COLMESNEIL...CHESTER...
NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 205 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DIBOLL TO 13 MILES WEST OF
CHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 36 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
CHESTER BY 220 AM CDT...
ROCKLAND AND COLMESNEIL BY 240 AM CDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3107 9458 3106 9453 3104 9447 3109 9419
3082 9417 3082 9462 3085 9462 3095 9465
3102 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 266DEG 31KT 3120 9480 3088 9476

$$

SHAMBURGER

[TexLady]

We are getting a pretty strong storm, right now. This morning when the tornado came through (I live in New Waverly), it was just as dark as it is now...lol