Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Meso]

lol,well the model is only showing it in 15 days.. You could see some cloud there by then

[gatorcane]

TAFB shows a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean in 3 days, so i say a decent chance of some clouds by then

[JonathanBelles]

lol. Pretty bad we have to give POC's.

[RL3AO]

Maybe that wave can do something in the Epac.

[Category 5]

The latest run shows Antartica breaking in half.

[jaxfladude]

The latest run shows Antarctica breaking in half.

Yep, that has been forecasted for awhile now, sad to say the forecast is right on schedule...
no more "Happy Feet" I fear....

[KatDaddy]

No more Pingu which is just frightening. Perhaps he will transform into a tropical Pingu. Someone will get who Pingu is........Nook! Nook!



What do you know someone is already thinking about a tropical Pingu.



Ok back to the tropics

[bvigal]

Gooooood morning fellow campers!! Another season is upon us! Love this thread, it happens every year.

To be fair to the GFS, it's used all year long for forecasting, and here in the tropics, it's the most accurate, followed by the NAM. But, we don't pay much attention beyond 7 days.

However, I'll throw in this tidbit. The shading is previous 12hr precipitation, so no indicator of wind, etc. Also, it doesn't show any low pressure system, just a big wad of rain coming off the GOM for New Orleans - way out on the 29th, ample time to go poof from the model.

[boca]

Gooooood morning fellow campers!! Another season is upon us! Love this thread, it happens every year.

To be fair to the GFS, it's used all year long for forecasting, and here in the tropics, it's the most accurate, followed by the NAM. But, we don't pay much attention beyond 7 days.

However, I'll throw in this tidbit. The shading is previous 12hr precipitation, so no indicator of wind, etc. Also, it doesn't show any low pressure system, just a big wad of rain coming off the GOM for New Orleans - way out on the 29th, ample time to go poof from the model.

Which run was that I didn't see that on the GFS 06z run?

[bvigal]

Hiya Boca!! It was the 0z.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[NDG]

The gfs always comes out with the same crap about this time every year. Is the normal pressure falls across C.A., southern Caribbean and EPAC that the gfs mistakes it with tropical activities. My thinking is that any tropical activities will be in the eastern Pacific by the end of the month, as usual.

[boca]

Hiya Boca!! It was the 0z.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

On the 06GFS run that area towards New Orleans was totally gone,which should be no surprise. We could use the rain badly here in Florida I hope something of tropical nature maybe a tropical storm wouls affect us in June.

[bvigal]

When I run it, 6z,12z,18z are all May 13. 0z is May 14, the latest. Doesn't matter, though, it's so easy to see how fictional these are beyond 7 days. Big blobs of moisture appear, disappear on the next frame (6hrs), reappear on the next, etc. LOL!

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB thinks an upward motion pulse, now leaving SE Asia after helping fire up Margis and the South China Sea systems, will be in the East Pac late May, possibly stirring action, and will be in the Caribbean/Gulf the first week of June, and might enhance the possibility something happens early season.

[RL3AO]

JB thinks an upward motion pulse, now leaving SE Asia after helping fire up Margis and the South China Sea systems, will be in the East Pac late May, possibly stirring action, and will be in the Caribbean/Gulf the first week of June, and might enhance the possibility something happens early season.

I said that in chat last night. Was JB there?

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB thinks an upward motion pulse, now leaving SE Asia after helping fire up Margis and the South China Sea systems, will be in the East Pac late May, possibly stirring action, and will be in the Caribbean/Gulf the first week of June, and might enhance the possibility something happens early season.

I said that in chat last night. Was JB there?

Who knows? He is back from HOU and cutting videos.


BTW, just read his column on the PPV hurricane forecast thread, and everyone gets a hurricane this year, potentially. But Florida to New England is target #1.

[hial2]

No more Pingu which is just frightening. Perhaps he will transform into a tropical Pingu. Someone will get who Pingu is........Nook! Nook!

It's amazing that multinational companies that merchandise toys don't do research and realize that some names that might be O.K. in their language have a slightly different meaning in others, especially slang.
I don't think there will be a great demand for that toy penguin in many latin households..

[flwxwatcher]

JB thinks an upward motion pulse, now leaving SE Asia after helping fire up Margis and the South China Sea systems, will be in the East Pac late May, possibly stirring action, and will be in the Caribbean/Gulf the first week of June, and might enhance the possibility something happens early season.

Yes, I read in JB's column he said the Gulf is the place to watch after the 25th.

[Vortex]

18z GFS 5/16

Well if this ever verified could bring some welcome rains to S.FL

H+324
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

H+336
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif

H+348
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_348l.gif

H+360

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_360l.gif

H+372

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_372l.gif

H+384 Alllisons twin??????

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Also notice the low in the eastern Atlantic, a little early for the CV season heh?