Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[RL3AO]

Yep. Very well could up being TS Alma in a few weeks.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN
18W AND 20W.

Here is our guest from africa, nice looking wave in spite of the shear and the SAL doting the area for the moment at this time of the year...Whereas if we where in August or September, I would bet much more on this beautiful wave

[Pedro Fernández]

Dr. Jeff Masters talks about that tropical wave in his blog. He says it is the first tropical wave of the year for the Atlantic Basin.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200805

"Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins May 15, and tropical waves such as this one sometimes serve as the nucleus for May tropical storms, once they cross Central America and enter the Eastern Pacific."

Perhaps it is a premonition?

I wouldn't pin one's hopes on it for its development over the Atlantic Basin...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm not impressed with the tropical waves and the Itcz in general. In fact it appears to be below 5 north in much of the eastern and centeral Atlantic. Also the deep troughs should also work to keep the seasons start a slow one.

[tolakram]

Tropical wave dropped.




Is there a location with an archive of these images? I would like to see analysis from past years.

[gatorcane]

Impressive-looking convection continues to build offshore Africa. It definitely would appear there is more moisture available in this region of the MDR than last year and the higher than normal SSTs are more than likely contributing:

[Cyclone1]

Decent moisture, that's for sure.

[gatorcane]

Very impressive at this hour to say the least with some hints of mid-level rotation, although we know as it moves more West, convection will die down substantially:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ON THE 18Z SFC MAP ALONG 17W/18W
SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PHOTOS AND AN
ASCAT PASS. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING NWD TO AROUND 12N. ALSO...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM
INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS WAVE THAT PROBABLY MOVED
OUT OF AFRICA THIS MORNING.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Meso]

The EURO has been showing a wave for a while coming off Africa.Well,I'm assuming it's a wave,a small area of 20-25 m/s winds which is moving westwards.Moves off moves off Africa in about 200 hours, no visible lower pressure with it but it does cause a slight bump in the isobars when it moves off

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN
ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 12N.

Our guest from Africa once again... is continuing his trip nicely with a pretty large enveloppe of moisture nice to see on sat pic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

[KWT]

The ITCZ is really starting to spark up now as you'd expect at this time of year, I have no doubt though its a little more active then it should be right now, not surprising given the above average sea temps presently.

[gatorcane]

TAFB has recognized this new wave off Africa and is showing it on their latest surface plots (see bottom-right corner of this image)

[KWT]

Yep not that surprising really. Also i note that other wave we were tracking is now heading towards the EPAC, will be interesting to see if it does anything once it gets there.

[gatorcane]

Yep not that surprising really. Also i note that other wave we were tracking is now heading towards the EPAC, will be interesting to see if it does anything once it gets there.

Indeed I was thinking the same thing about the wave moving into the EPAC.

[gatorcane]

NHC TWD. The first wave they discuss is the one off of Africa, the other is a new one that has been added NE
of the NE Coast of South America.

No development is likely with any of these waves at this time.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS MORE DISORGANIZED TODAY AS VISIBLE IMAGES ONLY INDICATE
A FAINT BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. THE AXIS IS
PLACED IN THE CENTER OF THE BROAD STRUCTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 12Z ANALYSIS ALONG 47W S
OF 11N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
TRACEABLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION...BUT WAS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...
TODAY THE WAVE IS MORE DEFINED WITH VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE FIELD SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 6N...
ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGING FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA.

[RL3AO]

Didn't we get a May invest out here last year that looked like it was a depression/storm for a while? Or was that in June?

[Eyewall]

If these waves keep coming off this early and looking this good could this lead to storm developement in the caribbean in july , but nothing like we saw in 2005. Thoughts

[KWT]

Well July 2005 was a bit of a freak as it goes, we got hurricane Dennis which broke the old pressure record, only for Emily to break it just a week or so later!

Anyway yeah going to have to see whether that wave will do anything in the EPAC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro looks like it tries to get something going in the EastPac days 9 and 10, but it may be limited by proximity to the coast.


Hard to tell what goes on with Euro, with free acess limited to a very few coarse resolution maps with only a few parameters at 1 day intervals.