Very intense convection.....

[dixiebreeze]

Very intense convection headed toward African coast and is a higher latitude than usual for this time of year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[Duddy]

WOW WHOA!!!

<borat>Very nice!</borat>

[RL3AO]

If the shear was a tad lower, I'd give it a 15% chance of becoming 90L within three days of leaving the coast, but its not low so I give it a 2% chance.

EDIT: I might be the first person this year to make percentages on the next possible invest. Do I win something?

[Sanibel]

Looking at waves that haven't emerged in mid-May

[GeneratorPower]

Looking at waves that haven't emerged in mid-May

Ya wanna make something of it?

[Category 5]

Start the countdown to "poof".

However that is extemely impressive for May.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, it is less than 2 weeks to the Atlantic season.


That wave will almost certainly fizzle within a day or two after leaving the coast, and, in about a week to ten days, what is left of it will be in the Western Caribbean, which might have conditions favorable for genesis. If not, a couple of days later it will be in the East Pac.



So, this could be an invest, in early June. Maybe.

[dixiebreeze]

The African interior does seem busier than usual for this time of year, but it's still a long time to liftoff.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, this is not very unprecedented or unusual. This is very typical for May; I observed equally active and intense African equatorial/sub-Saharan convection with expansive tops and high DBZ last year and in 2006. Moderate low level convergence coupled with upper divergence and confluence often leads to intense convection. Additionally, surface heating (typically high around this time) and low level vorticity supports convection and SHRA/thunderstorms, especially with forcing mechanisms at the lower levels. Overall, this is typical and does not warrant "alarmism" in itself; however, a much more interesting feature is the northern displacement of the ITCZ.

[Cyclone1]

If the shear was a tad lower, I'd give it a 15% chance of becoming 90L within three days of leaving the coast, but its not low so I give it a 2% chance.

EDIT: I might be the first person this year to make percentages on the next possible invest. Do I win something?

Shut up, I was bored.

I might keep this a running thing.

EDIT: Re-photoshopped to make it look better.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Overall, this is typical and does not warrant "alarmism" in itself; however, a much more interesting feature is the northern displacement of the ITCZ.

Indeed, that is what has caught my eye these past couple of weeks too. We shall see if it means anything or not it terms of over all activity, as the coming season continues it's progression

[RL3AO]

Sweet Cyclone1

[Decomdoug]

The players are starting to line up in the gates and soon the race will be on.

[canegrl04]

The players are starting to line up in the gates and soon the race will be on.

Go BIG BROWN! Sorry,that s another topic

[Frank2]

Whatever convection was there when dixie bell first posted, has since dissipated (aside from any normal ITCZ convection) - easy like Sunday morning...

LOL

[dixiebreeze]

Actually, it's pretty intense again tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[boca]

Actually, it's pretty intense again tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

Hey dixie how's it going.I saw those white cloud tops in the middle of that mass pretty intense. It all goes poof once it hits the water.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Actually, it's pretty intense again tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

The Euro satellite animations on the NOAA Nesdis page have two big a time gap between frames to be super useful, but just based on that still, the shape of the blob still over Africa, it appears to have some hint of cyclonic structure, almost banding on the Southern side.


Maybe this will be the first week of June Gulf storm between 92º and 87ºW Joe Bastardi dropped an allusion to (not a forecast....yet) on his afternoon post on the PPV site.

[Ed Mahmoud]

bed time.

But, of course they go poof when the hit the water in May, but the wave keeps going, even if barely discernible in visible imagery, let alone IR shots, and generally runs the top of South America and emerges into the EastPac, occasionally into the Caribbean, and if this wave has enough juice now to fire up like that, maybe it'll fire back up in 10 or 15 days.


Or, more likely, maybe it won't fire back up. Not before reaching the EPAC, anyway.

[dixiebreeze]

Actually, it's pretty intense again tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

Hey dixie how's it going.I saw those white cloud tops in the middle of that mass pretty intense. It all goes poof once it hits the water.

Hey boca, nice to talk to you. Yep, I know it's early, but still fun to see the white spots in the convection. Maybe we'll see some long runners this season?