Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008

[Ed Mahmoud]

Some severe weather today in the Carolinas...

[wbug1]

Severe line of thunderstorms now again moving in near Atlanta, GA. 3 tornado warnings up near Atlanta, GA. Cell in SC 50 km southwest and southeast of Augusta showing moderate TVS . Heavy cell near Charleston, SC.

[wbug1]

Tornado warning Charleston, SC.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
652 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

GAC121-202300-
/O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0074.000000T0000Z-080520T2300Z/
FULTON GA-
652 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY...

AT 648 PM EDT...FULTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD BETWEEN ALPHARETTA AND ROSWELL...AND NEAR THE NORTH POINT
MALL. THIS FUNNEL CLOUD WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

LAT...LON 3402 8418 3400 8419 3401 8423 3396 8428
3398 8436 3404 8440 3410 8433 3409 8419
3405 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 296DEG 36KT 3401 8423

$$

[wbug1]

Possible TVS near Fayetteville, NC. My own opinion. To be more specific near Dunn, NC.

[wbug1]

Atlanta metro area and area ENE is under tornado warning. I see a mod-weak TVS.

[wbug1]

TVS and Tornado warning west of Walterborough, SC. Motion ESE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TORNADO 5 SE HOLLY SPRINGS 34.12N 84.44W
05/20/2008 CHEROKEE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED SOUTHEAST OF HOLLY
SPRINGS...OVER 100 HOMES HAVE BEEN DAMAGED.


&&

$$

[brunota2003]

Hail from today's severe storm that moved through:

[RL3AO]

Nasty year for the Southeast and Atlantic coast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Day 2 has hatched along the dry line Oklahoma to Nebraska tomorrow.

snip

...NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS NEB/KS/WRN OK/N TX...
WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...FROM ERN WY/SD/NEB SEWD INTO PARTS OF IA/MO N OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WITHIN REGION OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WEAKENS...A LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWWD ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR ON SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THUS...EXPECT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY STRONG HEATING. CAPPING SHOULD HINDER
WARM-SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY/THE NEB
PANHANDLE ESEWD JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
TIME...HEATING/MIXING COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER FEATURE
SHOULD RESULT IN AMPLE WEAKENING OF THE CAP TO ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE -- MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS KS AND THEN
DECREASING IN NUMBER SWD ACROSS OK AND INTO TX. WITH MIXED-LAYER
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY -- AIDED BY
VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD EXIST ACROSS SWRN NEB...AND THEN SWD
ACROSS W CENTRAL KS. ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
SWD...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE AT LEAST AS FAR
S AS SWRN OK.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THOUGH N OF THE WARM FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
REDEVELOPS...WHERE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

[CrazyC83]

Notice the SPC has picked up on the threat as far as Monday...

[Ed Mahmoud]

SPC has gone MODERATE RISK for Kansas tomorrow.

relevant snip from SWODY2

AT THE SFC...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A 986 TO 988 MB LOW SLOWLY EWD
INTO WRN KS THURSDAY. A DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE SFC LOW
EXTENDING SSEWD INTO THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE MOIST LAYER WILL EXTEND ABOVE 850 MB AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4500
J/KG RANGE. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY FAVOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAPIDLY INCREASE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 30
KT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MATURE ACROSS WCNTRL KS...SRN NEB AND NW OK.
A FEW LONGER-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE MID EVENING. MAXIMIZED
INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.

[CrazyC83]

Looks so similar to May 4-5, 2007. Hopefully the folks at Wichita TV stations (like KSN) and other stations in the area are getting plenty of rest today, because they may very well be exhausted when this is over.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not part of the Plains outbreak, rather a continuation of last nights Atlanta/Charleston area severe, storms in NWS JAX CWA

[CrazyC83]

You know it is a huge system if it is producing severe weather way back in Wyoming...tomorrow could be hectic for sure...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 220552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SWRN NEB...WRN
KS...EXTREME NWRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM WRN NEB AND
EXTREME SERN WY TO PORTIONS NW TX/SW OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE DEEP/LARGE
CYCLONE -- NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT BASIN FROM HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SYNOPTIC TROUGH. LATEST 00Z 250 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED 150 KT JET MAX
DIGGING SSEWD ALONG W SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...ACROSS ORE...NERN CA AND
WRN NV. AS SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE VORTICITY LOBES REVOLVE
AROUND THIS GYRE...MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD RETROGRADE ACROSS
SRN GREAT BASIN DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS THIS OCCURS...ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ZONE -- PERHAPS WITH TWO OR
THREE LOCALIZED ISOBARIC MINIMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SFC
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM S-CENTRAL/SERN WY SEWD ACROSS NERN CO TO NWRN
KS. AFTERNOON DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT FRONT/LOW INVOF WRN PORTIONS
KS/NEB BORDER...AND EXTEND SWD ACROSS WRN KS...CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS
TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND W-CENTRAL TX...WITH SLGT EWD MIXING EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON AND RETREAT BEGINNING BEFORE SUNSET. SHORT/BENT-BACK
DRYLINE SEGMENT MAY ARC NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN KS/SERN NEB/NERN
CO...PERMITTING NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE ALONG WARM
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THOSE AREAS. FRONT IS FCST TO EXTEND FROM LOW
ESEWD ACROSS NERN KS AND W-CENTRAL/SWRN MO...WITH NET NWD DRIFT
THROUGHOUT PERIOD.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ANOTHER AMONG SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...WITH REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES BEING MOST PROBABLE ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE REGIME WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY SLOSHING
DRYLINE...LOCATED BENEATH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES...E
OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SVR CONVECTION TODAY IS FCST TO BE MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY MORE DANGEROUS THAN ON WEDNESDAY
THANKS TO GREATER MOISTURE...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MORE
INTENSE LOW LEVEL FOCI FOR ASCENT.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH STG SFC HEATING IN
RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS...BETWEEN DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT. PRECURSORY
MOIST ADVECTION -- NOW WELL UNDERWAY -- SHOULD RESULT IN SFC DEW
POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY
DRYLINE...INCREASING QUICKLY TO MID 60S EWD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN
KS...AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER TX/OK MOIST SECTOR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP INVOF
ELONGATED SFC LOW AND NEARBY DRYLINE AND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NNEWD TO NNWWD ACROSS WARM FRONTAL ZONE.
BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...LOW LEVEL SRH AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY EACH WILL BE
MAXIMIZED THERE...AND ANY MATURE STORMS INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL
ZONE MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES BUT THEN MOVE QUICKLY INTO UNFAVORABLE
SFC AIR MASS.

VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASINGLY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES FARTHER
S IN WRN PORTION OF MOIST SECTOR WITH TIME AS WELL...AS CAPPING
WEAKENS ALONG DRYLINE. THIS ESPECIALLY IS A CONCERN LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN LIFTED PARCELS STILL ARE SFC-BASED AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ GREATLY ENLARGES HODOGRAPHS IN ENVIRONMENT OF ANY
EXISTING SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL WILL BUILD SWD ALONG KS SEGMENT OF
DRYLINE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

STRONG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF MEAN FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTM COVERAGE PROVIDES SOME STORM-SCALE
UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDING GREATER SIGNIFICANT HAIL/TORNADO
PROBABILITIES ATTM. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SBCINH --
E.G. 2000-2500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF WRN KS AND PERHAPS SMALL PART OF
SWRN NEB -- TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
DISCRETE/CYCLIC/TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...ALSO PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THOUGH
SUPERCELLS/TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST WELL INTO NIGHTTIME
HOURS...OVERALL MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME AFTER DARK.
INCREASING/ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE WELL N OF WARM FRONT -- ACROSS
N-CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL AS FAR N AS
PORTIONS SD.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONGER BUOYANCY -- E.G. 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE -- AND GREATER
MLCINH EACH ARE FCST SWD OVER ERN PANHANDLES AND WRN OK...COMPARED
TO FARTHER N...LIMITING POTENTIAL COVERAGE. THREAT THEREFORE
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS SRN
HIGH PLAINS...HENCE SWD REDUCTION IN SVR PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER...VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM OVER THIS AREA. SOME FCST
SOUNDINGS REASONABLY INDICATE SLGT INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR -- E.G.
55-60 KT OVER WRN OK OR ABOUT 5-10 KT MORE THAN S OF WARM FRONT IN
KS -- THANKS TO MORE WLY COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT.

...ARKLATEX AREA...ERN OK...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONE OF
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...JUXTAPOSED WITH STG
DIURNAL HEATING...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND RELATIVELY WEAK
SBCINH. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
FOCI...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO DEVELOPMENT OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY
IN NARROW ZONE OF SELY SFC WINDS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND
S OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...MESSY/TEMPORARY SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE
AMONG MORE PREDOMINANT MULTICELLULAR MODES. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE
MRGL PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS.

..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 05/22/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1146Z (7:46AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

1300Z update - virtually unchanged, still hints of a HIGH:

SPC AC 221225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS SWRN NEB...WRN
KS...EXTREME NWRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM WRN NEB AND
EXTREME SERN WY TO PORTIONS NW TX/SW OK...

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DEEP UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PERIOD...OR
EVEN RETROGRADE SOME...AS STRONG UPPER JET DIGS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER ERN CO WITH DRY LINE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED SWD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS FAR WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM NERN CO INTO CENTRAL MO...WITH WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT
FROM NERN OK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. S-SW OF THIS
DIMINISHING FRONT...VERY RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED NWD EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH NEAR 70F DEW POINTS NOW INTO SRN OK AND MID 60S
INTO FAR S-CENTRAL/SWRN KS. STRONG 70-80 KT SLY MID LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATOP NWRN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
RETURN WITH 50-60 KT SWLY H5 WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS DRY LINE OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SETUP WILL THEREFORE BECOME QUITE VOLATILE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES INTO THE MID EVENING.

DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN STRONG ELY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO NERN CO/NWRN NEB/SERN WY NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THREAT
OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS MODEST SURFACE HEATING SUPPORTS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SFC-BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP INVOF
ELONGATED SFC LOW AND NEARBY DRYLINE AND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS FROM
SRN NEB INTO WRN KS WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WARM FRONTAL ZONE.
RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...LOW LEVEL SRH AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY. THUS ANY MATURE
STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES BUT
THEN MOVE QUICKLY INTO UNFAVORABLE SFC AIR MASS.

VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASINGLY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES FARTHER
S IN WRN PORTION OF MOIST SECTOR WITH TIME...AS CAPPING WEAKENS
ALONG DRYLINE. THIS ESPECIALLY IS A CONCERN LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WHEN LIFTED PARCELS STILL ARE SFC-BASED AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ GREATLY ENLARGES HODOGRAPHS IN ENVIRONMENT OF ANY
EXISTING SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL WILL BUILD SWD ALONG KS SEGMENT OF
DRYLINE THROUGH AFTERNOON. STRONG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF MEAN FLOW
AND POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTM COVERAGE PROVIDES SOME
STORM-SCALE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDING GREATER SIGNIFICANT
HAIL/TORNADO PROBABILITIES ATTM. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SBCAPE-- E.G. 2000-2500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF WRN KS AND
PERHAPS A SMALL PART OF SWRN NEB -- TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
DISCRETE/CYCLIC/TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SUPERCELLS/TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST WELL INTO
NIGHTTIME HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT...ALTHOUGH EVOLUTION
INTO MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED AFTER DARK.
INCREASING/ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE WELL N OF WARM FRONT -- ACROSS
N-CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL AS FAR N AS
PORTIONS SD.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONGER BUOYANCY -- E.G. 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE -- AND GREATER
MLCINH EACH ARE FCST SWD OVER ERN PANHANDLES AND WRN OK...COMPARED
TO FARTHER N. STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT POTENTIAL COVERAGE...AND THREAT THEREFORE BECOMES
MORE ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS SRN HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS SHOULD CAP BREAK GIVEN GREATER STEERING FLOW
ACROSS THE DRY LINE. ANY SUPERCELL WHICH DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE A
STRONG TORNADO ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING.

...ERN TX INTO ARKLATEX AND ERN OK...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONE OF
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...JUXTAPOSED WITH STG
DIURNAL HEATING...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND RELATIVELY WEAK
SBCINH. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
FOCI...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO DEVELOPMENT OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
HOWEVER...12Z LCH/FTW SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...
ESPECIALLY IN NARROW ZONE OF SELY SFC WINDS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW AND S OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BRIEF SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE
AMONG MORE PREDOMINANT MULTICELLULAR MODES. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE
MRGL PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS.

..EVANS/EDWARDS/SMITH.. 05/22/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1321Z (9:21AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can Texas Snowman or a moderator change the thread title to reflect "today and tomorrow"?

[CrazyC83]

This pattern has a Greensburg-esque feel to it...