South Florida May Rainfall Watch (Lushine Dry May Theory)

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami bringing rain chainces up to 30% today and tomorrow as some energy moves along a stalled frontal boundary across Central Florida -- a good opportunity for rain across the major terminals of SE Florida. If the models are wrong, then the next chance of rain appears to be 7+ days out.

[Sanibel]

The front dried up on contact as it arrived here. I think we are just at the tropical boundary here where continental airmasses weaken. This was a winter pattern with a front descending from the NW. We should be seeing convection clouds bringing showers.

[gatorcane]

Hardly any rain across the major South Florida terminals with only 11 days left in the month. The magic mark according to Lushine's theory is 5 inches.

May rainfall totals to date at major South Florida terminals:

Miami International: MONTH TO DATE 0.63
Ft. Lauderdale International: MONTH TO DATE 0.02
West Palm Beach International: MONTH TO DATE 0.27

But, looks like some relief in sight but I'm not going to hold my breath. The omega blocking pattern continues to be the story this May and a backdoor cold front? Interesting:

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD, BUT GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPING OF AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN AT M/U LVLS. HOWEVER, EVERY RUN HAS BEEN SHIFTING
THE UPSTREAM RIDGE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO THE POINT THAT NOW S. FL
MAY BE ACTUALLY MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO PERSISTS ON A BACK
DOOR FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH S. FLORIDA AS THIS
TROUGH DIGS SW INTO THE GULF OF MEX. WL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHWRS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TSTMS BEING A HIGH CHANCE FOR
SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO THE FLORIDA STRAIT SOMETIME
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A RAPIDLY DRYING TREND FOLLOWING
THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM COULD ACTUALLY BRING A RELIEF TO THE HOT
AFTERNOONS OF LATE WITH MAX AFTERNOON TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE M/U 80S INTERIOR AND WEST AND REACHING ONLY THE L/M 80S ON
THE EASTERN AREAS.

[gatorcane]

Once the backdoor front goes through rain chances are going to drop to 0% across South Florida with lows in the 60s and low humidity with highs in the low to mid 80s? Is it really end-of-May? Let's see how much rain South Florida squeezes out this week before the front goes through.

Extended Forecast for metro Miami starting the week of May 26th:

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Memorial Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

[Blown Away]

I know we need the rain but there is part of me that would like to see a near top 5 dry May just to put the Lushine theory on the 2008 hurricane season clock.

[Sanibel]

Rainy season just got here. We had a 5 minute big drop shower from a convection cell coming in off the Gulf on the SW wind. SW flow gives us morning showers. This was a small humid convection cell. Show time! Dew point up over 70* The hot sun will start driving it now.

[Blown Away]

South Florida's rainy season may start by weekend
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
10:51 PM EDT, May 20, 2008

The rainy season, when South Florida sees showers or thunderstorms most afternoons, might start by the end of this week, the National Weather Service in Miami said Tuesday.

That would ease the region's persistent drought conditions and help firefighters douse wildfires in the Everglades.

Normally, the five-month rainy season starts May 20 and ends in late October, delivering about 70 percent of the region's annual rainfall. Although scattered showers fell on Monday and Tuesday, there hasn't been enough moisture in the atmosphere to consider the season officially launched yet, weather service meteorologist Robert Molleda said.

Molleda said a cold front, forecast to arrive on Sunday, might bring dry, cooler air to the region and delay the rainy season further.

Seems to be a relationship between dry SFL May's, late rainy season start date (@28th), and SFL hurricanes. I guess we will know shortly, we got some heavy rains in Hobe Sound yesterday.

[Sanibel]

1/5 inch last night from an eroding front.

[gatorcane]

Rainy season just got here. We had a 5 minute big drop shower from a convection cell coming in off the Gulf on the SW wind. SW flow gives us morning showers. This was a small humid convection cell. Show time! Dew point up over 70* The hot sun will start driving it now.

Not quite Sanibel....

It appears the rainy season will get a late start this year after temporarily surfacing for a few days this weekend. Note the record highs across SE Florida yet again

NWS Mia discussion May 21st 2008:

.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY...WITH
MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE HAVING BROKEN THEIR RECORDS BEFORE 2
PM EDT.

MAY 20 IS THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE ONSET OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA RAINY
SEASON. DUE TO DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE EACH OF THE
PAST TWO AFTERNOONS LIMITING CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT RAINY
SEASON WILL NOT START UNTIL NO EARLIER THAN TOMORROW...MAY 22. THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WILL PUT A
TEMPORARY HALT TO THE WET PATTERN EXPECTED TO COMMENCE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE ACTUAL START DATE OF THE
RAINY SEASON WILL PROBABLY NOT BE DETERMINED UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE EXTENT OF THE DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BETTER
NOTED. /MOLLEDA

[MiamiensisWx]

This month will likely finish with below average precip totals for Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach stations. If you add surplus amounts related to additional SHRA/TSTMS during the last several upcoming days before May ends, it still won't alter the regional "dent". Mays with less than one inch of rainfall are generally unusual in the climatological database, so we will likely witness one of the drier Mays recorded for southeast Florida. I still do not support the "dry May/TC strikes" hypothesis, as stated in my previous analysis of available data.

[gatorcane]

This month will likely finish with below average precip totals for Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach stations. If you add surplus amounts related to additional SHRA/TSTMS during the last several upcoming days before May ends, it still won't alter the regional "dent". Mays with less than one inch of rainfall are generally unusual in the climatological database, so we will likely witness one of the drier Mays recorded for southeast Florida. I still do not support the "dry May/TC strikes" hypothesis, as stated in my previous analysis of available data.

Indeed if this May turns out to be one of the driest Mays, it will be interesting to see how this hurricane season plays out for South Florida. Interestingly enough, the last year this theory was put to the test was in 2005 where only 2 inches of rainfall was received in May, well below the 5 inch mark proposed by the theory. Lushine said that he would move to Alaska if May was dry. October of that same year, Wilma slammed Southern Florida as a borderline CAT 2/3

[Blown Away]

I think 2.5" is a good benchmark to be considered a "Very Dry May", what do you think?. Lushine never set that mark, but looking at the data it seems most of the hurricane impact years had May totals <2.5". It looks like SFL will get a late start w/ the wet season and less than average rainfall for May. If we end up w/ <2.5" of May rainfall and the "Wet Season" begins >May 28th, I'm ready to put some money on the table!!

[boca]

:uarrow:
I think 2.5" is a good benchmark to be considered a "Very Dry May", what do you think?. Lushine never set that mark, but looking at the data it seems most of the hurricane impact years had May totals <2.5". It looks like SFL will get a late start w/ the wet season and less than average rainfall for May. If we end up w/ <2.5" of May rainfall and the "Wet Season" begins >May 28th, I'm ready to put some money on the table!!

I wonder why Lushine was the only forecaster that believed in this theory.All the other forecasters just throw it out.I'll take a couple of tropical storms,but a hurricane no way.

[Blown Away]

If you live in Hobe Sound, you would think the "Wet Season" is here after the past 2 days.

[Jinkers]

Had only a few sprinkles today, my mom in Pembroke Pines got a good shower, today is my day to sprinkle, so I am doing that right now-lol

[Blown Away]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008

DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF CUBA TODAY WHILE OCCASIONAL WEAK RIPPLES/SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW MOVE OVER FL. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL ALLOW S FL TO BE AROUND CLIMO POPS TODAY. THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE LAKE AREA/INTERIOR WERE THE BEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZES MAY COLLIDE. ALSO TODAY, A SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT LOW TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SURFACE LOW TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTH BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS THE M/U LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS CUBA BREAKS DOWN PUSHING A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH S FL SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ACROSS SFL THE FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY SW, AND THIS WILL FOCUS MOST TSRA ALONG THE EAST COAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH CO, AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS A PUSH INLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. PLENTY OF MID LEVEL WARMING WILL ALSO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT CUTTING OFF MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS DRY REGIME IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BEYOND MID WEEK... MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BACK NORTHWARD RETURNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

It seems the SFL wet season will likely start no earlier than May 28th.

[Blown Away]

Slowly starting to accummulate some rainfall in SFL.

[Blown Away]

Rain chances slim for SFL towards the end of May. 84 degrees on Monday, nice!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ive had 7 inches in the last 2 days here in Stuart...I must be safe this year...LOL

[Sanibel]

Good convection outbreak yesterday and probably today too. It's here.