NOAA 2008 Atlantic Season Outlook=12-16 Named Storms

[PerfectStorm]

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2008 ... ne+outlook

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) -- Top government forecasters are expected to reveal how bad they think this hurricane season will be.

The government's top hurricane forecaster, Gerry Bell, will issue his prognostications for the Atlantic hurricane season at Tampa's MacDill Air Force Base Thursday morning. The season begins June 1.

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Also on hand will be the nation's top emergency response official, R. David Paulison. He oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The men are also scheduled to talk about storm preparedness, with "hurricane hunter" aircraft and crew members looking on.

[Ed Mahmoud]

"Top forecaster"?


I haven't heard the name before. Is he TPC?

[KWT]

No I haven't either but will still be interesting to see the thoughts, not long to wait really.

[cycloneye]

NOAA Outlook Press release

[cycloneye]

PerfectStorm;I edited part of the title to put NOAA instead of top forecaster.

[Ed Mahmoud]

NOAA Outlook Press release

Dr. Gerry Bell, Lead seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecaster, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

How do his forecasts compare to Klozbach and Gray in the past few years?

[cycloneye]

NOAA Outlook Press release

Dr. Gerry Bell, Lead seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecaster, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

How do his forecasts compare to Klozbach and Gray in the past few years?

You got me on that question,but I know someone will post a comparison of both to see how they haved done in the past what,10 years for example.

[KWT]

Oh ok so its NOAA's outlook, so when roughly will we know their forecast at a guess?

[Chacor]

In about... three minutes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sort of on-topic, JB posted that every year that Cincinnati has been at least 1º (F or C, he doesn't say) since 1950 have had a Carolina hurricane hit.


JB has been liking the Carolinas for the upcoming season anyway.


I guess cold in Ohio is an indication the East Coast trough will be far enough West not to protect the East Coast.

[Chacor]

90% near normal or above normal.

"For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes."

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... tlook.html

[cycloneye]

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... tlook.html

[KWT]

Slight error cycloneye in the title the forecast calls for 12-16 NS, looking at the range to be honest its a rather large range and given most seasons with near la nina SSTA profile in the Pacific nearly all of the seasons have come within that range.

Edit- ok you've changed it now!

[PerfectStorm]

Thanks Cycloneye for the edit!

[cycloneye]

Full Analysis of 2008 Hurricane Season Report from NOAA



You can read the full details of the NOAA outlook at link above.

[KWT]

Ah the extended outlook is much more interesting, the most interesting part of the lot for me is the reason why the developing La Nina pattern didnt affect the hurricane season last year.

[cycloneye]

I have a question and I am sure many have about why NOAA has the set of numbers in a spread instead of having one number per category?

[Derek Ortt]

a very good reason a range is given as there is little accuracy in giving a single number. The range reflects the uncertainty in the forecasts

[Blown Away]

Does this report and diagram give us any idea on how the Bermuda High will position itself during the hurricane season?