Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Ivanhater]

Yep I do wish it would get a move on, its nearly 12.00am over here in the UK now!

Well Vortex the key is to get the other models onboard, the GFS may well have been presistant but it could well be presistantly wrong...

Lol..get to bed!..Another reason im keeping a close eye on the GFS is this is the 1st test to see how the model will perform this year..some models do better certain years so if this does form GFS might be a good model to look at this year..

[Vortex]

Good points KWT and Ivanhater!

[cycloneye]

Agree 100%

[Aric Dunn]

18z .... last few images shows something possibly coming out of the carrib


http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/javaa ... height=700


and here is the gfs long range im sure you all are going to go crazy over this
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/javaa ... height=700

[Ivanhater]

Wow..shows a tropical storm hitting around the Tampa area!

[Aric Dunn]

Wow..shows a tropical storm hitting around the Tampa area!

well the pressure on that looks like 989 but can hardly tell

[cycloneye]

I would wait another round of 00z and 12z tommorow to then get more enthusiastic.

[Aric Dunn]

I would wait another round of 00z and 12z tommorow to then get more enthusiastic.

right!

[Ivanhater]

Making landfall..



Close call for the Carolinas as well on this run.

[flwxwatcher]

I would wait another round of 00z and 12z tommorow to then get more enthusiastic.

I think I will wait for 00Z and 12Z in about a week to then get more enthusiastic.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop



I call this run,very interesting,but again,I want to see the next 00z and 12z runs tommorow to then jump on the bandwagon in an enthusiastic way.

[Vortex]

If the 18z even remotely verified that would be some drought buster for SFL. Events like what the 18z GFS is painting have be known to produce 10-20" of rain in southern florida in June.

H+288

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

H+300
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Seems to show it moving up the coast as a nor'easter (while undergoing extratropical transition), after a Florida landfall. Still very far out, but interesting none the less.

[hial2]

Possibility of T/C in GOM = $6.00 gallon gas..unfortunately..

back to tropical weather..

[gatorcane]

if the GFS does verify kudos to it...it has been predicting a low here for about 10+ days now...

I agree with Luis, lets see if the next runs are even more in agreement but at this point I think we can all agree "something" looks like it could get going in the SW Caribbean in several days....

[Duddy]

Oh boy! I'm starting to get those pre-season butterflies in my stomach!!!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS sea level pressure at 168 hours showing the seminal stages of the GFS low starting to form in the SW Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Possibility of T/C in GOM = $6.00 gallon gas..unfortunately..

back to tropical weather..

Not if it gets/stays East of 90ºW by the time it enters the Gulf. And even if it came West of 90º, a typical weak early June storm, like Allison, would have fairly minor effects on offshore and refinery ops.

[Vortex]

Something to ponder as we talk about June storms in the coming days..

Hurricane One
Hurricane One 3



Duration June 20 – July 1
Intensity 115 mph (185 km/h), Pressure unknown
The first tropical storm of the 1945 season formed in the western Caribbean Sea on June 20. It moved northward through the Yucatan Channel, and rapidly intensified to a 115 mph (185 km/h) Category 3 major hurricane on June 23. This made it one of three storms to reach major hurricane status in the month of June, and the third most intense storm to occur in June. It turned northeast over the Gulf of Mexico, and steadily weakened to a minimal hurricane at the time of its western Florida landfall near Cedar Key on June 24. It continued northeastward, hitting Cape Hatteras on June 26, and became extratropical on June 28 over the northern North Atlantic, and the system later dissipated on July 1. The hurricane caused only minor damage.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thread title now suggests I'd better go look at the 0Z GFS...