Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Ed Mahmoud]

So far, through twelve hours, no storm in the Caribbean...

[Ed Mahmoud]

bed time.


Through 78 hours, ITCZ, especially from South America into the Pacific active, but no tropical cyclones.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 114 Hours Maybe,this is the start of a system,lets see in the next frames.

[boca]

Luis I was thinking the same thing as I saw that red spot north of Panama.

[RL3AO]

Oh boy. Already doing frame by frame model watch posting?

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 138 Hours Something cooking near Panama.

[boca]

GFS at 138hrs there it is.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138m.gif

[boca]

Oh boy. Already doing frame by frame model watch posting?

What does that say about me? Don't answer that.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 150 Hours Low just East of Nicaragua.

[boca]

Looks like the low is east of Honduras making that slow north progress at 168hrs.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 168 Hours A very different scenario in this run.It stucks a weak low in the SW Caribbean,distint from past runs that had a system getting stronger and moving towards Cuba and South Florida.

[Eyewall]

Where will landfall be this time guessing game.

[boca]

At 192hrs off NE coast of Honduras.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192m.gif

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 180 Hours Now we are talking about a stronger low (1003 mbs)

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 300 Hours A soaker for Florida Peninsula and a lopsided low.Thats all for me,bedtime.

00z GFS Loop Complete loop of this 00z run.

[Category 5]

I hear the latest 300 hour run shows UFO's attacking New York City.

[boca]

I hope it verifies,it would be a good soaking for Florida's drought.

[JonathanBelles]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

This is one of the oddest frames I have seen.

[Eyewall]

Just like a normal june gulf of mexico storm with all the moisture of the eastern side and the center exposed because of wind shear.

[boca]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_324l.gif

This is one of the oddest frames I have seen.

It sure does it looks like its turning baroclinic.