Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#281 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri May 23, 2008 2:45 pm

Check out tomorrow's forecast sounding at Kansas City, KS

Image
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#282 Postby snoopj » Fri May 23, 2008 2:47 pm

It's been a long time since I've seen this in a watch probability box:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (70%)

They don't go above 95% very often. This is about a sure a bet as any. Ouch.

--snoopj
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#283 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 23, 2008 2:48 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Check out tomorrow's forecast sounding at Kansas City, KS

Image


OUCH!!! Better hope the CINH doesn't get any lower!
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#284 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 23, 2008 2:51 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PNHDL TX...CNTRL/ERN OK PNHDL AND EXTREME
WCNTRL-NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231949Z - 232145Z

ISOLD TSTMS MAY INITIATE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN TX/OK PNHDLS 21-22Z AND
COULD MOVE INTO EXTREME WCNTRL/NWRN OK THIS EVE. A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS THE
WCOAST TROUGH RETROGRADES. BUT...A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING THE ERN
RIM OF THE TROUGH WILL SKIRT PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS WRN/SWRN KS...BUT THERE IS A CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS
AS FAR S AS I-40 IN THE ERN TX PNHDL AND WCNTRL OK.

VSBL SATL ALREADY SHOWS A CU FIELD OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH
DEEPER TOWERS TRYING TO ESTABLISH OVER TEXAS AND WRN BEAVER
COUNTIES. AIR MASS WAS STRONGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO ADVECTION OF MID
60S DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 90F. THE DRYLINE
CIRCULATION...ALREADY ENHANCING ACROSS SWRN KS...WILL LIKELY BECOME
STRONGER FARTHER S INTO AT LEAST THE NERN TX PNHDL THROUGH LATE
AFTN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
WEAKENING CAP WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO INITIATION AFTER 21-22Z.

DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR AND VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORM. FURTHERMORE...A SUSTAINED STORM
MOVING NEWD TOWARD FAR NWRN/WCNTRL OK THIS EVENING MAY ALSO PRODUCE
A TORNADO OR TWO AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS
STOUT...BOOSTING 0-1KM SRH ABOVE 250 M2/S2 AMIDST LOW LCLS.

..RACY.. 05/23/2008


ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

35970106 36520128 36890124 36960050 36979988 36919947
36729920 36409920 35999930 35719950 35429976 35190008
35170038 35390073
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#285 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri May 23, 2008 2:58 pm

-36 J/Kg is breakable, and at 7pm, the CAPE is probably a tad lower and CINH a tad higher than at 4 pm or 5 pm at max heating.
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#286 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 23, 2008 3:01 pm

Crazy couple days for Laramie Co, WY
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
200 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHEYENNE...

* UNTIL 245 PM MDT

* AT 153 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHEYENNE...MOVING NORTH AT 37 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CHEYENNE BY 210 PM...
NORTH CHEYENNE BY 220 PM...
WHITAKER BY 240 PM...
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#287 Postby snoopj » Fri May 23, 2008 3:03 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Check out tomorrow's forecast sounding at Kansas City, KS

Image


This reminds me that I'll have to learn what those actually mean. Right now, I have no clue, but you mentioned Kansas City and that's my neck of the woods.

--snoopj
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#288 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 23, 2008 3:08 pm

SPC AC 232000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NEB...WRN
KS...CNTRL KS AND NE CO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...


...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY AS
THE EXIT REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX
REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
CLUSTER OF TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WITH
SOME STRONG TORNADOES.


LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB SFC LOW OVER CNTRL CO WITH BACKED
SFC WINDS ACROSS NEB...NRN KS AND NE CO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR GOODLAND KS WITH A DRYLINE SWD ACROSS SW KS. A
MOIST AXIS EXISTS FROM CNTRL KS EXTENDING NWWD INTO NW KS WHERE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. FURTHER NORTHWEST IN FAR
NE CO AND SRN NEB...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM INITIATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 22Z TO
23Z FROM NE CO SEWD ACROSS WCNTRL KS. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND WSR-88D
VWPS ALONG THIS ZONE SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60 TO 80 KT RANGE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE
THE DOMINANT MODE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS CNTRL KS AND SRN NEB. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WCNTRL KS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH
VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES. SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS THAT CROSS THE WARM FRONT IN WCNTRL KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON
. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXPAND SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS AS
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS INITIATE THERE EARLY THIS EVENING. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 4000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING SWD INTO NW OK. THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY MAY HELP THE SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

...SRN CA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AS AN
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS NRN BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN
CA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LA BASIN
ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS OF CA SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND
COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH MAY SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.

...MISSOURI...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL MO AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES/KIS.. 05/23/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2004Z (4:04PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#289 Postby Bunkertor » Fri May 23, 2008 3:11 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Check out tomorrow's forecast sounding at Kansas City, KS


OK, Ed. But todays storms can change a lot ? What do you think ?
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#290 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 23, 2008 3:15 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
311 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 308 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 29 MILES SOUTH
OF QUINTER...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF DIGHTON...MOVING NORTH AT 38
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
QUINTER AROUND 350 PM CDT...


AT 310 PM CDT...A ROTATING WALL CLOUD WAS REPORTED ON STATE HIGHWAY
4 BETWEEN UTICA AND SHIELDS.
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#291 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 23, 2008 3:41 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

NEC063-232045-
/O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-080523T2045Z/
FRONTIER NE-
333 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
FRONTIER COUNTY...

AT 330 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EUSTIS...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
EUSTIS BY 340 PM CDT...
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#292 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 23, 2008 4:10 pm

Image
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#293 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 23, 2008 4:17 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
314 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

* UNTIL 400 PM MDT

* AT 309 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO OVER
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE...MOVING
NORTH AT 28 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AT 330 PM
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#294 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 23, 2008 4:43 pm

Gove Co, KS

Image
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#295 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 23, 2008 4:44 pm

TORNADO WARNING
WYC021-031-232230-
/O.NEW.KCYS.TO.W.0017.080523T2140Z-080523T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
SOUTHWESTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT

* AT 335 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAMBERT...OR 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE...MOVING
NORTH AT 37 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAMBERT BY 355 PM...

MOVE INTO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
CHEYENNE AT 1-800-269-6220.

LAT...LON 4184 10527 4186 10500 4142 10497 4140 10510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 167DEG 32KT 4151 10505

$$

SOWKO
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#296 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 23, 2008 4:56 pm

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 415 PM MDT

* AT 349 PM MDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
JUST EAST OF JOHNSTOWN. OTHER LANDSPOUT TORNADOES OR
GUSTNADOES WERE REPORTED EAST OF WINDSOR AND JUST EAST OF
GREELEY.
THE LANDSPOUTS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL WELD COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROCKPORT...
PURCELL...PIERCE...NUNN...LUCERNE...LA SALLE...KERSEY...KEOTA...
HEREFORD...GROVER...GILL...GALETON...EVANS...EASTON...
BRIGGSDALE...BARNESVILLE...AULT...GREELEY AND WINDSOR.
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#297 Postby Bunkertor » Fri May 23, 2008 4:59 pm

There´s a lot of traffic at KSN. What did the anchor mean with holy cow. What´s on? They seem to be very concerned.
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#298 Postby Bunkertor » Fri May 23, 2008 5:02 pm

F**k Tornado warnings coming up all over the place.
Last edited by Bunkertor on Fri May 23, 2008 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tornado outbreak again today?

#299 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 23, 2008 5:03 pm

It might be this.

Image
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#300 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 23, 2008 5:04 pm

He is talking behind the scenes suggesting something bad is developing...Greensburg redux?
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