Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

That healthy-looking wave has now (12z surface) been labeled a 1010mb low. Not the usual fare for May.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

Looking at this wave as a first salvo so early that may signal an active CV Season.We better be prepared here in the Eastern Caribbean for a long season,but hopefully we here are not visited.

[KWT]

Yep the convection has pretty much gone and now all is left really is the turning. However we did get some pretty impressive looking convection for a time this afternoon and no doubt it was a healthy wave. If we see this keep up with minimal levels of SAL we may well get an active CV season...

[Aric Dunn]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls


http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[bvigal]

That healthy-looking wave has now (12z surface) been labeled a 1010mb low. Not the usual fare for May.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

Looking at this wave as a first salvo so early that may signal an active CV Season.We better be prepared here in the Eastern Caribbean for a long season,but hopefully we here are not visited.

Hiya Luis!!
Luis is right, it could mean an active (or earlier) season.... or it could mean nothing at all. Invest???? OK folks, I said not usual for May to have 1010mb low at 30W in May. Did I say 1st hurricane? No. Did I say first tropical storm? No. Here where we live, prob 20kt winds and some rain in 5 days? Yes, I'll put my money on that, for sure!!! Anything else? Didn't say it, didn't say it. Let's stick with the facts, please. I do not intend to refrain from pointing out something interesting, just because some might blow it all out of proportion.

[HURAKAN]

The CPC is expecting an active West African monsoon, which should allow for strong TWs to roll into the Atlantic. I think we may be beginning to see that already happening. As the season reaches its prime, it could be common to see TWs with LLC before moving into the Atlantic. It should be fun in the next following months!

[cycloneye]

The Atlantic is almost without the Sal right now.

[KWT]

Thats a huge contrast to recent years, though I want to see what SAL is like in early July once the ITCZ gets even further north. Still all factors combined are pointing to a very acxtive cape verde season, with hopefully some nice re-curves and not a 89/96/99 type season...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
7N/8N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...AND
FR0M 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.
Here is the player, he has not lost the 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER not so bad for a end of may and the beginning of the hurricane season officially beginnig july first

[Gustywind]

Note that right now, as Cycloneye emphasizes yesterday , the sal is pretty weak, and thick moisture is steadily doting the area from 10 w to 50W...maybe conducive conditions trying to appear

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

[KWT]

Yep that possibly is the case gustywind, its going to be interesting to see what conditions are present in that region as we head into say middle July.

[Gustywind]

Yep that possibly is the case gustywind, its going to be interesting to see what conditions are present in that region as we head into say middle July.

Yeah absolutely and tkanks KWT, agree with you just matter of time
000
AXNT20 KNHC 251107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 11N
BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.

[cycloneye]

A nice convection complex (Possibly a wave) is on the virge to emerge West Africa.But of course the convection will fizzle with time.However,it shows that it is getting closer the time to watch more closely that part of the world,especially after late July.



Sat Dundee Image

[Tampa_God]

A very large wave, maybe a MLC to it as I watch it over and over again. Looking forward what the chances are that this will make it halway to the Carribbean

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 252342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT CLEARLY INDICATES A BULGE OF MOISTURE
RELATED TO THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWING VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-11N
..THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N23W 3N30W 2N41W EQ50W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS
LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FROM
4N-8N EAST OF 20W TO THE AFRICAN COAST...AND NEAR 4N9W.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg

[RL3AO]

These waves are starting to consistently leave at 8-10N.

[canegrl04]

Note that right now, as Cycloneye emphasizes yesterday , the sal is pretty weak, and thick moisture is steadily doting the area from 10 w to 50W...maybe conducive conditions trying to appear

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

I remember how fierce the SAL was last season.It did prevent alot of monster canes from forming,and kept the US coast fairly safe. All bets may be off this season I'm afraid

[KWT]

Well I'm not sure it was so much the SAL but the TUTT set-up sheared any storms that came out the cape verde region bar the ones that were decently far south.

The waves are starting to get further north now, won't be long till we have to really watch them.

[Gustywind]

Note that right now, as Cycloneye emphasizes yesterday , the sal is pretty weak, and thick moisture is steadily doting the area from 10 w to 50W...maybe conducive conditions trying to appear

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

I remember how fierce the SAL was last season.It did prevent alot of monster canes from forming,and kept the US coast fairly safe. All bets may be off this season I'm afraid

Hi cangrlr04, glad to see you, yeah absolutely, it's another season ... with anothers surprises in stores, hope that they will not be so bad because theses waves for the MOMENT seem very gorgeous and awesome with already lows pressures and placed more north, with nice ITCZ activity, and weak SAL... very promising for a beginning, so i'm agree with you if this trend continues with much more conducive conditions So each season is speacial as usual.

[Cyclenall]

Note that right now, as Cycloneye emphasizes yesterday , the sal is pretty weak, and thick moisture is steadily doting the area from 10 w to 50W...maybe conducive conditions trying to appear

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

I remember how fierce the SAL was last season.It did prevent alot of monster canes from forming,and kept the US coast fairly safe. All bets may be off this season I'm afraid

The SAL wasn't the reason the US coast was fairly safe.

[Meso]

Interesting