Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[cycloneye]

00z GFS Loop



GOM Bound as a hurricane?? Take a look at the loop of the 00z run.

[boca]

I like to know what will spark off this spurious phantom storm in the SW Caribbean north of Panama.Its clear as a bell right now.Lets see if the GFS keeps on developing the system and pushing it back in time.I think its sniffing out the monsoon areas of Latin America and just spinning things up due to lower pressure. Maybe this late season cold front progged to come thru S Florida on Sunday will be the spark. Just grabbing at straws at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Meso]

[KWT]

ECM now trying to develop a closed circulation in the SW Caribbean tkaing a similar track to the GFS, over N.Yucatan by 240hrs, however lookes nothing more then maybe a tropical depression on this run but the fact it shows a closed low is a big plus for the GFS idea to be right.

Looks like on the 0z run the GFS takes a sort of Cindy 05 track though a touch further east towards the panhandle. Probably still too early to call for anything yet but the ECM and GFS both form a closed low in the Sw Caribbean in the enxt 5-6 days.

[Thunder44]

The 0z GGEM from last night has this system too. It has a 998 low over the Yucatan at 240hrs. Still too soon to trust the models with reliability, but something to keep watching.

[Vortex]

6Z GFS..This would be quite a way to open the 2008 Hurricane season...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

[wxman57]

We know that the models tend to indicate development in this region quite frequently this time of year. In most cases nothing develops. It's interesting that the GFS moves a vorticity max eastward across the Pacific, across Panama, and into the SW Caribbean as the source of its storm. The European drives a different vorticity max northward across Mexico and into the BoC. Both scenarios are quite unusual, so I'd say it's just something to keep an eye out for over the next 3-4 days. Probably won't have a storm develop but I'd feel more comfortable if the models didn't forecast development.

[Thunder44]

6Z GFS..This would be quite a way to open the 2008 Hurricane season...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

Assuming it develops, I don't see how it can make that turn north without a trough to pick it up. Honestly, I think it's more likely that the ridge over the SE US is stronger and keeps this storm from getting much further north than Yucatan.

[NDG]

This is how persistent and consistent the GFS has been for at least the past week.

This a run from Saturday, OF LAST WEEKEND!

[NDG]

We know that the models tend to indicate development in this region quite frequently this time of year. In most cases nothing develops. It's interesting that the GFS moves a vorticity max eastward across the Pacific, across Panama, and into the SW Caribbean as the source of its storm. The European drives a different vorticity max northward across Mexico and into the BoC. Both scenarios are quite unusual, so I'd say it's just something to keep an eye out for over the next 3-4 days. Probably won't have a storm develop but I'd feel more comfortable if the models didn't forecast development.

Actually, the euro drives that vorticity, as per last night's run now, into the NW Caribbean now, very similar to the GFS, but closer to C.A.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snip from NWS HGX AFD

FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SOMETHING TROPICAL IN NATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WEDNESDAY AND DRAGGING IT WEST CLOSE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY FOR TX AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS WILL
DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF FROM NRN FLORIDA TO MATAMOROS MEXICO WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR
TURN IT OFF INTO CUBA. BUT AGAIN I WOULD STRESS THAT HOW WELL THE
GFS DOES AT INITIATING TROPICAL SYSTEMS THIS YEAR IS STILL IN
QUESTION BUT DEFINITELY WARRANTS A BEAR WATCH.

If anything does form, it may head toward Florida and end the dry conditions in time to ensure fires don't threaten this year's Coke Zero 400.

[boca]

I personally think the GFS model is on crack.

[jimvb]

Apparently so. The Houston people think that this deserves a Bear Watch. Apparently they are bearish on this storm; they don't think it will amount to much. Or maybe they are saying that bearish (i.e., bad) conditions could happen. They may be thinking of what happens on Wall Street if a hurricane strikes the rigs and refineries on the Gulf.

[Meso]

This is really stretching it but purely for interest sake here is a 240 hour run of the CMC

[wxman57]

Actually, the euro drives that vorticity, as per last night's run now, into the NW Caribbean now, very similar to the GFS, but closer to C.A.

Yeah, I see that. Yesterday's 12Z EC took it across MX into the BoC. The 00Z run is similar to GFS. Both are probably wrong, but I don't like the thought of any early-season development.

[Frank2]

At least the NWS discussion indicates that the western half of the Gulf will be unfavorable for whatever develops (IF anything develops at all), so, that should keep anything well east of the oil-producing areas, and, perhaps it'll be a very good rain chance for Florida - THAT we do need...

[NDG]

If the euro comes out with something similar to its previous 00z run and to the gfs continuous runs, what are the chances of the top two trusty models being wrong?
I guess that Tuesday-Thursday time period will tell how far east that eastward moving vorticity out of the E-PAC forms.

[gatorcane]

I guess the convection in the EPAC is where this "phantom" low starts? I am still not buying a Caribbean storm solution -- I think the EPAC is much more likely.

[gatorcane]

Is the GFS for real? I know its 360 hours but wow....I highly doubt this could happen being we are in May.

[NDG]

As that trough of low pressure digs SW or moves into the western Caribbean, that is what will push some of that moisture and vorticities into the southern Caribbean, at least that is what the gfs and euro are coming out with.