Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008

[btangy]

Seems like the mode is evolving more towards a squall line with hail and winds the primary threat now. Still have that supercell slightly ahead of the line SW of Hutchinson that has some strong rotation with it, but might be the final one of the night.

[Cyclenall]

Look at that, bow echo madness. Very powerful winds, up to hurricane force.

[KWT]

A very busy day then yesterday, today may be a little less active but still looks fairly active when all is told.

The UK team I'm tracking had a very active day yesterday as you'd expect, they bagged 5 tornadoes including a huge wedge with a satellite tornado as well and they also punched a hail core which had baseball sized hail....very active day for them!

[Cyclenall]

This video is of the Quinter, Kansas tornado from yesterday:

Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgGjtZxGEkI

Now that is sweet .

[tornado92]

.

[tornado92]

A very busy day then yesterday, today may be a little less active but still looks fairly active when all is told.

The UK team I'm tracking had a very active day yesterday as you'd expect, they bagged 5 tornadoes including a huge wedge with a satellite tornado as well and they also punched a hail core which had baseball sized hail....very active day for them!

True, as it looks like the Eastern sides of South Dakota all the way to Olkahoma would be where storm activity would be taking place. It still looks quite stormy for the Mid West also, looking at the plan for today...

This video is of the Quinter, Kansas tornado from yesterday:

Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgGjtZxGEkI

Now that is sweet .

Also, that tornado took hold real fast. Usually it takes a while to get itself together but once this was on the ground, off it went...

[wbug1]

I'm surprised Kansas city and areas N/S aren't under severe TS warning, still shear present and strong cell approaching Kansas city. Considering the history of this squall line.

[snoopj]

I'm surprised Kansas city and areas N/S aren't under severe TS warning, still shear present and strong cell approaching Kansas city. Considering the history of this squall line.

I'm having that line go right over me right now. I live in the north part of the Kansas City metro area and from the feel of it, there's not really a lot of cloud-to-ground lightening, the winds weren't intense, and there's no hail that I heard/could see. It just felt like a decent summer t-storm in the area. I'd say the north part of the bow echo has lost a lot of punch.

[wbug1]

Well, maybe it is finally dying down, it is also cool now being early morning.

[snoopj]

Up here, it has gotten a little cooler than I thought it would be. It was about 59-60 before the line moved through. It's much warmer down south, where it appears, most of the hail and wind is occurring.

With that being said, I'm going back to bed.

--snoopj

[HURAKAN]

Pretty intense storms for the morning hours.

[Bunkertor]

TORNADO WARNING
MOC097-145-241145-
/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0125.080524T1110Z-080524T1145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTH CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT.

* AT 607 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR JOPLIN...MOVING EAST AT 17 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DUQUESNE AND SILVER CREEK BY 615 AM CDT.
CARTERVILLE BY 620 AM CDT.
DUENWEG BY 625 AM CDT.
CARTHAGE BY 645 AM CDT.

[HURAKAN]

Active morning across the heartland.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 241235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SD INTO PARTS OF KS/OK...

LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS MORNING AS
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PINWHEEL AROUND LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED INITIATE FRIDAY/S ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO SD. MEANWHILE...A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
OVER NORTHERN NM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF MN/IA DURING THE
EVENING.

....SD/NEB...
THE SCENARIO THIS MORNING IS QUITE COMPLICATED OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. A LARGE LINEAR MCS IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MO. THIS MCS HAS EFFECTIVELY USED UP MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER KS YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL HELP
TO ADVECT HIGH DEWPOINT AIRMASS OVER OK NORTHWARD INTO RISK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z/06Z MODEL SUITE APPEARS NOT TO HAVE HANDLED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION VERY WELL...FURTHER COMPLICATING NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TODAY.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR IN
DRYSLOT OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LEAD TO AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/. FIRST STORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR IN CENTRAL SD ALONG WEST EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA ALSO SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER AND
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH NARROW MOIST AXIS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS BY EARLY
EVENING...ENDING SEVERE THREAT.

...NEB...
FARTHER SOUTH OVER NEB...QUESTION WILL INVOLVE RETURN OF MOISTURE.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT BACK TO SOUTHEAST NEB BEFORE PEAK HEATING. WHILE THIS IS
SOMEWHAT LESS RAPID THAN EARLIER FORECAST...IT STILL APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

...KS...
OVER KS...EVOLUTION OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION OF OVERNIGHT MCS SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY MAY BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE...PROVIDING A FOCUSED AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT OVER
PARTS OF KS THIS AFTERNOON. IF A STORM CAN FORM IN THIS
REGION...HIGH CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR OLD BOUNDARY MIGHT ALSO RESULT IN TORNADO
THREAT.

...OK/TX...
FROM NORTHERN OK SOUTHWARD...CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG HEATING WILL
POSE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ANYWHERE FROM
WESTERN NORTH TX INTO WESTERN OK. IF THIS OCCURS...SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

...GA/FL...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KY/WV IS FORECAST TO ROTATE QUICKLY
SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA. DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WILL HELP YIELD AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2000
J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER GA AND
DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FL LATER TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
WILL POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY TODAY.

..HART/GRAMS.. 05/24/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1417Z (10:17AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

The models seem to be quite active, even if they are not as intense as yesterday - still, the slight risk may be conservative. I'd have gone moderate with 15-hatched tornado risk.

[CrazyC83]

Cells already starting to get their act together:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC111-139-241600-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0069.080524T1532Z-080524T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1032 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1029 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF OSAGE CITY...OR 17 MILES
NORTHEAST OF EMPORIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSAGE CITY...
BURLINGAME...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 142 AND 158.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3853 9604 3863 9611 3874 9598 3874 9594
3876 9595 3883 9586 3867 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1532Z 234DEG 28KT 3861 9598

$$

HARDING

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241741Z - 241845Z

ISOLD STG TSTM HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER NERN MAJOR COUNTY VCNTY
THE INTERSECTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A PIECE OF THE
LEE-TROUGH. PARCELS FEEDING THE STORM LIKELY EMANATE FROM CNTRL OK
WHERE AIR MASS HAS MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG. THE STORM IS LIKELY SFC
BASED CONSIDERING THE CHARACTER OF THE UPDRAFT ON VSBL SATL. THIS
STORM...OR SUBSEQUENT UPDRAFTS ON ITS FLANK COULD LATCH ONTO THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD INTO NRN KINGFISHER COUNTY AND
PRODUCE TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.

..RACY.. 05/24/2008


ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

36729828 36529722 36389680 36019698 35809738 35839787
36059832 36149848

[CrazyC83]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ENID OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 346...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ALONG
INTERSECTION OF E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND N/S DRY LINE. WITH A VERY
TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG...AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL SD INTO EXTREME NCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241818Z - 241915Z

VSBL SATL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM S-N ACROSS SCNTRL SD AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE SPIKED INTO THE LWR 60S. CONSIDERABLE DRYING WAS
OCCURRING UPSTREAM OVER NRN PNHDL OF NEB AND EXTREME SWRN SD AS THE
SFC LOW OVER NERN WY SPINS SLOWLY NWD. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...MULTIPLE CONVERGENCE ZONES WILL LIKELY BE IMPETUS FOR
SLOWLY GROWING TSTMS...PRIMARILY FROM CHERRY COUNTY NEB NWWD INTO
BENNETT...JACKSON...ERN PENNINGTON AND ERN MEADE COUNTIES IN SD.
THERE WILL BE A NARROW WEDGE OF DESTABILIZING AIR ROUGHLY 50-60
MILES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MO RVR VLY THAT MAY SUPPORT STG-SVR
TSTMS WITH PRIMARILY HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW LCL/S AND STRONG
SELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND...A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD LATER THIS AFTN FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IN CNTRL/ERN NEB.

..RACY.. 05/24/2008


ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

42680147 43050156 44100207 45410388 45500247 44870041
43599933 42649885 42689924

[HarlequinBoy]

According to Fox News damage in protection was pretty light.