Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008

[CrazyC83]

I would not be totally shocked if one of the storms was an EF5 - remember, all it takes is to completely blow away a strong structure.

that is not an accurate statement. The NWS survey teams take building types, methods and conditions into account. In other words, if a POS shotgun shack house on cinder blocks is blown away, it doesn't earn the same rating that a well built brick home on a concrete foundation with hurricane clips would receive.

That's what I meant - blowing away clean a house on nothing more than slabs is no more than an EF3. But with the area being so rural, you often don't hear until later about the isolated catastrophic damage if it is just one house involved.

[Mightybri]

Hello-

My name is Brian and I am a storm chaser out of Wichita.

Went running down to Perry today to intercept the very slow moving tornados and caught up with them near the end. It was quite the show except for all the heavy rain and hell that kept occluding the tornados.

We were at a service station under the pylons to escape some of the hell and to get pictures when the Perry Police told us it was either time to head North or go to the basement of the building.

The storm became rainwrapped at that point and we left. For a few scary minutes it was being reported that the tornado had entered Perry but in the end had dissipated.

I'm in the Wichita area so if any of you chase around here, give me a yell.

Brian

[wbug1]

Heavy cell now over/near Wichita, KS looks like only possible severe thunderstorm active currently in US. Looks strong, no severe TS warning up in area. The xtreme south part looks like it may be rotating.

[Bunkertor]

The sounding would support a TOR warning? explain...

True... what i wanted to say and write is that i wouldn´t be surprised over a warning as to the sounding values.

[wall_cloud]

ah, just wanted to make sure that you didn't possess some magic key that I was never aware of

[Bunkertor]

ah, just wanted to make sure that you didn't possess some magic key that I was never aware of

I´m done at the end of the day and my english becomes worse.

[Bunkertor]

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN MN...NRN WI...FAR WRN UPR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251456Z - 251630Z

ELEVATED STG-SVR TSTM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH
CNTRL MN LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS PRODUCED HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PING-PONG BALLS IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY JUST BEFORE 930A CDT. UPDRAFTS
ARE THRIVING WITHIN A SWLY BRANCH OF THE LLJ WITH STOUT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION. 12Z MPX/INL/GRB SOUNDINGS ALL EXHIBITED SUBSTANTIAL
H5-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 7+ DEG C PER KM AND GIVEN ROUGHLY 45 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BRIEF ROTATING UPDRAFTS HAVE RESULTED.

THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTEGRITY AND PULSE TO SVR LEVELS
AS IT TRAVELS NEWD INTO NERN MN...NWRN WI...AND PERHAPS WRN LK
SUPERIOR/WRN UPR MI THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN SUFFICIENTLY HEAT
DOWNSTREAM...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PRIMARY SVR EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN IN WAKE OF
THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN INTO IA THAT WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL/NRN WI BY EVENING.

..RACY.. 05/25/2008


ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...

45819503 47959042 47398933 46608927 46039015 45659213
45319463

[RL3AO]

This is the first time I've been under any risk this year on day 1 and its a moderate!

[CrazyC83]

This is the first time I've been under any risk this year on day 1 and its a moderate!

Strange things always happen! Who would also have thought the biggest thunderstorm up here in the first five months of 2007 would be in January?

[CrazyC83]

1630Z: Virtually unchanged

[CrazyC83]

Subtle changes to the percentages - the 45 wind was hatched (possible overnight derecho), and an "impossible" hatching to parts of the 5% area:

SPC AC 251617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MN...WESTERN WI...AND EXTREME WESTERN UPPER MI.....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHWEST MO...AND SOUTHWEST IA......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX...ACROSS THE MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION......

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHERN WI INTO KS...


...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER NWRN ND MOVES EWD AND OPENS INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS
ASSOCIATED 70-90 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER
CA... A BROAD SWLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FROM SRN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NWD THRU
SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO KS. MID LEVEL MCV CENTRAL
OK HAS EVOLVED FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ENEWD POSSIBLY ENHANCING SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.


...MN/WI/WRN MI UP...
AHEAD OF THE N/S COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ERN DAKOTAS A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S
OVER IA/EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN. STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP INTO MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WI AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MI DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA SUGGEST
A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
/SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/.

...KS/NEB/MO/IA...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HEAT BURSTS
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PARTS OF OK/KS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO KS. NEVERTHELESS... A MOIST
AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THIS
REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONG MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY THRU THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...SURFACE TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE DRY/TROUGH LINE AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO
THE MOIST AXIS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /SUCH AS SEEN ON 12Z AMA SOUNDING/ AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 21Z WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR
MCS DURING THE EVENING AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS
AND SOUTHEAST NEB...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THERE IS CONCERN THAT SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE COULD DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED MCS THIS EVENING.

...TX/OK...
HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS SWD INTO TX
PANHANDLE/NWRN OK GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE
SETTING UP E OF DRY LINE COUPLED WITH 40KT OF SHEAR AND 9C/KM LAPSE
RATES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY
NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE DRYLINE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.

THE MCV OVER CENTRAL OK WILL DRIFT ENEWD AND COULD ENHANCE SHEAR AND
ASCENT INTO NERN OK/NWRN AR/SWRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK IN THIS AREA FOR
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 05/25/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1624Z (12:24PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251655Z - 251800Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND SWRN KS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE
NEEDED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED CU FIELD AND COOLING TOPS AS STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH OBSERVED TRENDS ON RADAR HAVE
BEEN FOR THESE STORMS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES
TO DEVELOP.

LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TOWARDS THE DRYLINE. MODIFYING THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
PROVIDES A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT COMBINED WITH
EFFECTIVE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 TO 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AMIDST
STRONG HEATING...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..HURLBUT.. 05/25/2008


ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

33890287 34370404 35700351 36750238 37800105 37460014
35540131 34410234

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR...SERN KS...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251717Z - 251815Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS NERN OK...NWRN AR...SERN KS...AND SWRN MO. SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

MCV INVOF CNTRL OK WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NEWD TOWARDS JLN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING ACROSS THE OUTLINED
AREA AHEAD OF THIS...AND LITTLE CIN IS LEFT TO BE OVERCOME. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE...MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS
MUCH 4000 J/KG SBCAPE CAN BE REALIZED. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BOTH
AHEAD OF THE MCV AND ALONG A PSEUDO WARM FRONT ORIENTED ROUGHLY N-S
ALONG THE KS/MO AND OK/AR BORDERS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AND MULTICELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY BACKED FLOW AHEAD OF THE
MCV...OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

..HURLBUT.. 05/25/2008


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

35419326 34859471 35709548 36829571 37659496 37739353
36409259 36159273

[Melissa]

I live near Halstead, Kansas.

It's pretty windy and humid right now.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MN...WCNTRL WI...NRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251743Z - 251915Z

ELEVATED STG-SVR TSTM CLUSTER...TIED TO A WEAK UPR IMPULSE/SWLY
LLJ...CONTINUED TO MOVE NEWD AND WEAKEN OVER NWRN WI/NERN MN EARLY
THIS AFTN. IN ITS WAKE...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS VEERED TO WSW
OVER FAR SWRN MN/NWRN IA AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT OVER ERN
SD/NEB. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ADVECT DRIER DEW POINTS QUICKLY NEWD
INTO NCNTRL IA AND SWRN MN EARLY THIS AFTN.

DOWNSTREAM...STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WAS ERODING FROM SW-NE
ACROSS IA/SRN MN WITH THE 17Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACING A LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FROM SRN/WRN IA NWD INTO SWRN MN. THE TREND OF
CLEARING/RAPID WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
NWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY REGION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A JET STREAK RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM WRN
NEB. LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE. THIS AND STRONG HEATING WILL WEAKEN
RESIDUAL INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INITIATION
PROBABILITIES 20-22Z. INITIAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER
CNTRL/SCNTRL MN...THEN BACKBUILD SWWD INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL IA BY
LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 40-50 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THE STORMS MATURE AND MOVE OFF THE
BOUNDARY...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER
SERN/ECNTRL MN INTO WRN WI/NERN IA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN BACKED THE LONGEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 05/25/2008


ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

41979496 42799450 43819455 44719530 45099557 45689528
46069415 46019264 45839219 45149146 44279116 43619122
42809153 42139217 41519320 41429424 41569475

[tornado92]

Radar suggests that some storms over the Texan Panhandle and Eastern Olkahoma have tornado watches on them.


202 WUUS54 KTSA 251848 SVRTSA OKC001-021-135-251945- /O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0315.080525T1848Z-080525T1945Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 148 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARBLE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...COOKSON... BUNCH...STILWELL AND MARIETTA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.


LAT...LON 3595 9453 3566 9448 3555 9488 3578 9499 TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 220DEG 14KT 3563 9483

[Siberian Express]

PDS tornado, MN WI

[RL3AO]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
MUCH OF WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
FAIRMONT MINNESOTA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LA CROSSE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...

DISCUSSION...RAPIDLY DESTABILIZATION AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH STRONG MID/UPPER JET PROVIDING PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE E/W BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. THERE
IS THE THREAT FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[CrazyC83]

Kinda surprised it is PDS, maybe the threat increased?