Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[lebron23]

00z .........exciting then boring

[JonathanBelles]

looks like the latest run has the system very disorganized, and then just loses it.

[Jam151]

Why is everyone so enthralled with the GFS? Everyone seems to ignore the ECMWF, NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET etc. Just because one model is or isn't showing something doesn't mean the model consensus isn't showing something completely different.

[NDG]

Why is everyone so enthralled with the GFS? Everyone seems to ignore the ECMWF, NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET etc. Just because one model is or isn't showing something doesn't mean the model consensus isn't showing something completely different.

And your point is

[StormspinnerD2]

Why is everyone so enthralled with the GFS? Everyone seems to ignore the ECMWF, NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET etc. Just because one model is or isn't showing something doesn't mean the model consensus isn't showing something completely different.

And your point is

The point is that it's foolish to rely solely on one model. The consensus of the models should be used to make any judgments; forecasts based entirely on one model alone tend to be wrong. Getting hyped up over something that the GFS sees is totally foolish if other models aren't seeing the same thing.

[Meso]

Other models arent seeing the same thing? The EURO showed something the same as the GFS and the long range CMC also did.. the problem is most of the models run till 144 hours and the main development of said storm is a bit longer than that,or has been.While of course it would be stupid to think that the gfs is right and its going to happpen..Some support from other models as well as consistancy over 30 runs is definitely something worth keeping an eye on even if its an unlikely scenario


00 EURO


00 Nogaps

[Jam151]

Some support from other models as well as consistancy over 30 runs is definitely something worth keeping an eye on even if its an unlikely scenario

that's my point actually. The GFS "kinda" dropped it in the previous run and half the board seemed to freak out. Still, it's only one run and it's not like the other models haven't been showing the same suspect low pressure system either.

[KWT]

GFS now more keen within the 5 day period to strengthen the EPAC system rather then the SW Caribbean region which may mean a shift in where the model is trying to form development. However whilst it does this some of the ohter models come on board wwith on of the GFS previous ideas. ECM still favors the SW Caribbean like it did on its 12z run yesterday.

All very interesting stuff.

[Meso]

06z gfs

Weird run,it moves the low North into the gulf then south again then north again

[Thunder44]

Why is everyone so enthralled with the GFS? Everyone seems to ignore the ECMWF, NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET etc. Just because one model is or isn't showing something doesn't mean the model consensus isn't showing something completely different.

I think it's because the GFS is easier to read off of the NCEP graphics and it runs four times a day. I don't really expect any of the models to get the details right, this far out. They are just not that good. Whether it's in the EPAC or Carribean, the models still develop the system in 3 or 4 days. That what I'm looking for the most right now.

By the way, I've noticed some turning the clouds this morning in the EPAC, just off the coast of Costa Rica. Could this be the first signs of low pressure development?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/loop-avn.html

IR 2 loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/loop-ir2.html

[NDG]

We can say that most global models are in agreement now for development to take place in the Gulf of Honduras in the western Caribbean, whether the vorticity originates from the southern Caribbean or off the coast of Nicaragua in the epac, they move it along with a large plume of moisture into that area. The only global model not on board is the UKMET, the CMC is coming on board little by little.

[KatDaddy]

From this mornings Houston-Galveston AFD:

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN THAT EVENTUALLY
MOVES WEST INTO THE BAY CAMPHECHE...EARLIER RUNS SHOWED IT MAY
STALL OVER THE YUCATAN THEN HEADOFF TH THE EAST BUT BOTH GFS/ECMWF
NOW HAVE LESS OF A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ENOUGH
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND TEXAS TO STEER IT WEST
KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH. MAY MAKE FOR A WET SUNDAY IN SETX THE
FIRST SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF JUNE IF IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WEST
TAPING INTO THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE.

[NDG]

This is where I am starting to see where things start cranking up in the next couple of days. Definitely a broad area of low pressure trying to get going now in the Nica/Costa Rica area, with multiple vorticities around it, don't look to the west of it where most convection is because there is nothing but W winds found, all that moisture should continue to head towards the area of low pressure into western Caribbean during the next couple of days.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 144 Hours It starts here with a low North of Honduras.

[NDG]

Yeah, gfs bashers are not going to like this run, it goes in line more with the euro now.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 162 Hours Low just east of Cozumel.

12z GFS at 216 Hours Low in Central GOM.

12z GFS at 324 Hours Over 300 hours here but anyway look what this run does with the low.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_312l.gif

For what it's worth, it moves the tropical system west into Mexico or southern Texas.

[NDG]

12z CMC, now very similar to gfs, for what is worth, for those looking for more back up.

[Aric Dunn]

ECMWF 00z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

nogaps 00z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

both show western carrib development in addition to the gfs.

adding to previous post for more back up

[Eyewall]

It is looking more and more like we will have a storm in the gulf next week. The question is how strong will it be and where will it head is yet to be seen.