IWIC 2008 Atlantic hurricane season forecast 12/7/3

[Kerry04]

A very good write up

http://www.independentwx.com/2008

[Bocadude85]

"One significant correlation regarding east Florida landfalls involves the spring NAO and winter ENSO. Years with winter El Niño conditions prior to the hurricane season average more east Florida landfalls, especially during positive or negative spring NAO. 2008 falls alongside 1950, 1955, 1956, 1963, 1968, 1974, 1984, 1985, 1996, and 1999 with a winter La Niña and neutral spring NAO. Of these years, only 1984 had an east Florida hit, and it was from an in-situ west Atlantic tropical storm. Such development, as mentioned in the subtropical Atlantic sub-section, is highly unlikely in 2008

"

"While south Florida should remain safe, the above data suggests one named storm or perhaps hurricane landfall anywhere from central Florida to Georgia this season."

Correct me if Im wrong but in 1950 Hurricane King hit South Florida and in 1999 Hurricane Irene hit South Florida, I also saw the year 1964 in their forcast which featured Hurricane Cleo in South Florida.

[KWT]

Well its certainly in-depth forecast though there are some thin gs I don't agree with, esp the idea of decent early activity, whilst the last two months will be queit, \I tned to find when you've had a borderline strong la nina the winter before the season takes a while to pick up but when it does continues quite late though they do seem to have at least one TC form before the season picks up, quite often in June.

Also the forecast makes assumptions that the pattern found in Spring will still be present come the Autumn and I just don't think you can really make that assumption

I suppose it all depends on what years you favor and think will most closely reflect this one, it is an interesting forecast and there are things I do agree with, esp with regards to the lack of Caribbean activity, though should be noted that obviously with a good 3-5 cape verde cyclones any of them that are quite deep south at the start could well be a risk...we saw that several times in 1995 for example even though I relaly don't think that year is going to be the best one to use...years I'm using is 2000 and 1989, i was also thinking about 1955.

[Blown Away]

"One significant correlation regarding east Florida landfalls involves the spring NAO and winter ENSO. Years with winter El Niño conditions prior to the hurricane season average more east Florida landfalls, especially during positive or negative spring NAO. 2008 falls alongside 1950, 1955, 1956, 1963, 1968, 1974, 1984, 1985, 1996, and 1999 with a winter La Niña and neutral spring NAO. Of these years, only 1984 had an east Florida hit, and it was from an in-situ west Atlantic tropical storm. Such development, as mentioned in the subtropical Atlantic sub-section, is highly unlikely in 2008

"

"While south Florida should remain safe, the above data suggests one named storm or perhaps hurricane landfall anywhere from central Florida to Georgia this season."

Correct me if Im wrong but in 1950 Hurricane King hit South Florida and in 1999 Hurricane Irene hit South Florida, I also saw the year 1964 in their forcast which featured Hurricane Cleo in South Florida.

I think King, Cleo, and Irene are conisdered hits from the South. 1985 had Kate from the East through Key West.

[Jam151]

Correct me if Im wrong but in 1950 Hurricane King hit South Florida and in 1999 Hurricane Irene hit South Florida, I also saw the year 1964 in their forcast which featured Hurricane Cleo in South Florida.

I believe they were looking at deep tropical storms that stayed north of the caribbean and hit florida.

[GeneratorPower]

I'm sorry but with the sheer number of cliches and other poor writing, I have a hard time believing this was written by a professional with any clue about what he is talking about. It reads like a college term paper. Plus, they are trying to forecast things that have been proven over and over again to be unforecastable. I've got $5 on this paper being a complete bust come the end of the season.

[Jam151]

I'm sorry but with the sheer number of cliches and other poor writing, I have a hard time believing this was written by a professional with any clue about what he is talking about. It reads like a college term paper. Plus, they are trying to forecast things that have been proven over and over again to be unforecastable. I've got $5 on this paper being a complete bust come the end of the season.

They made it a point to focus more on the forecast instead of theory because people used to complain that it was too long of a read. They were actually pretty close the last 2 years.

[KWT]

Its not even so much that but I think they try a little too hard on all the details t obe honest. I think its interesting read and its clearly been researched based on just how long it is and the examples but it does make some assumptions that I'm not sure will hold.

Still we will see, I suspect number wise they may not be far out as it happens...

[GeneratorPower]

I'm sorry but with the sheer number of cliches and other poor writing, I have a hard time believing this was written by a professional with any clue about what he is talking about. It reads like a college term paper. Plus, they are trying to forecast things that have been proven over and over again to be unforecastable. I've got $5 on this paper being a complete bust come the end of the season.

They made it a point to focus more on the forecast instead of theory because people used to complain that it was too long of a read. They were actually pretty close the last 2 years.

Climatology was pretty close the last two years, too.

[mf_dolphin]

ADMIN note: IWIC is not a professional organization from the meteorology standpoint so this is strictly an amateur forecast.