RL3AO wrote:Lets see if they go 15H over the PDS area.
It should be 15H over the PDS watch, and 10H up to the border...
Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Tornado outbreak again today?
SPC AC 252006
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN WI..SE MN
AND NW IA...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL KS...SE
NEB AND NW MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND OZARK PLATEAU...
...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WI...CNTRL WI...FAR SE MN AND NE IA...
...UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NNEWD INTO THE REGION. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN
AXIS FROM WRN IA EXTENDING INTO SE MN AND WRN WI WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY NEAR 70 F IN NRN
IA AND THIS AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY NNEWD INTO SE MN AND WRN
WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INITIATION IS OCCURRING IN SCNTRL MN AND
THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND SWWD FROM WRN WI AND ERN MN INTO NRN
IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AT MID-LEVELS...RUC DATA SHOWS A 50 TO 70 KT JET MAX LOCATED FROM
NEB NEWD ACROSS SRN MN. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS
THE LINE ORGANIZES. CONCERNING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-1 SRH VALUES IN THE 130
TO 200 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENT
FOR TORNADOES. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET EXPANDS NNEWD FROM WRN IA INTO WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A
PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS NRN
MO...IA INTO WRN WI WITH 850 MB TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5
C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL MAKE VERY LARGE
HAIL A POSSIBILITY WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 50 TO 70 KT
MID-LEVEL JET ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM CO TO NEB AND
THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE
NWRN PART OF THE REGION. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F IN NW KS AND IN THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND SSWWD ALONG
A DRYLINE INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NEWD INTO NRN KS AND INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM WRN KS SHOW ABOUT 30
KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHEAR IS LIKELY GREATER IN NW KS CLOSER TO
THE MID-LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...VWPS SHOW ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS DUE TO A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE
WRN TX PANHANDLE ACROSS NW KS. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS. AS THE MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO NRN
KS AND SE NEB LATER THIS EVENING...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY
ALSO BECOME ENHANCED.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2014Z (4:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN WI..SE MN
AND NW IA...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL KS...SE
NEB AND NW MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND OZARK PLATEAU...
...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WI...CNTRL WI...FAR SE MN AND NE IA...
...UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NNEWD INTO THE REGION. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN
AXIS FROM WRN IA EXTENDING INTO SE MN AND WRN WI WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY NEAR 70 F IN NRN
IA AND THIS AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY NNEWD INTO SE MN AND WRN
WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INITIATION IS OCCURRING IN SCNTRL MN AND
THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND SWWD FROM WRN WI AND ERN MN INTO NRN
IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AT MID-LEVELS...RUC DATA SHOWS A 50 TO 70 KT JET MAX LOCATED FROM
NEB NEWD ACROSS SRN MN. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS
THE LINE ORGANIZES. CONCERNING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-1 SRH VALUES IN THE 130
TO 200 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENT
FOR TORNADOES. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET EXPANDS NNEWD FROM WRN IA INTO WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A
PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS NRN
MO...IA INTO WRN WI WITH 850 MB TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5
C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL MAKE VERY LARGE
HAIL A POSSIBILITY WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 50 TO 70 KT
MID-LEVEL JET ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM CO TO NEB AND
THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE
NWRN PART OF THE REGION. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F IN NW KS AND IN THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND SSWWD ALONG
A DRYLINE INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NEWD INTO NRN KS AND INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM WRN KS SHOW ABOUT 30
KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHEAR IS LIKELY GREATER IN NW KS CLOSER TO
THE MID-LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...VWPS SHOW ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS DUE TO A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE
WRN TX PANHANDLE ACROSS NW KS. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS. AS THE MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO NRN
KS AND SE NEB LATER THIS EVENING...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY
ALSO BECOME ENHANCED.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2014Z (4:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
My feeling the issuance of the PDS is due to a confluence of ingredients as progged by the SREF over E and SE MN (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs ... __f012.gif), but the low clouds present this morning may interfere with the destabilization of the boundary layer where it doesn't clear out in the next couple of hours. It looks like the overcast is breaking though and there's plenty of instability aloft as evidenced by the 17Z MSP sounding (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings ... BS/MPX.gif).
There is also a 100knot jet streak over MN (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/300mb.gif) so ageostrophic lift associated with it will dynamically help any convection that finds itself in the appropriate left front or right rear quadrants. There is also positive vorticity advection providing further synoptic scale lift.
The focus for initiation should be a surface boundary seen clearly in the latest mesoanalysis with the trough in W MN and IA (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/pmsl.gif). There's a few cells already beginning to blossom along the boundary. All in all, I think the PDS will likely verify as the signal is quite strong in the short range guidance even if there aren't supercells yet on radar.
There is also a 100knot jet streak over MN (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/300mb.gif) so ageostrophic lift associated with it will dynamically help any convection that finds itself in the appropriate left front or right rear quadrants. There is also positive vorticity advection providing further synoptic scale lift.
The focus for initiation should be a surface boundary seen clearly in the latest mesoanalysis with the trough in W MN and IA (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/pmsl.gif). There's a few cells already beginning to blossom along the boundary. All in all, I think the PDS will likely verify as the signal is quite strong in the short range guidance even if there aren't supercells yet on radar.
0 likes
Re: Tornado outbreak again today?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LANE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
NORTHWESTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HEALY
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEALY...
SHIELDS...
PENDENNIS...
UTICA...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHERN LANE...NORTHWESTERN NESS AND
SOUTHWESTERN TREGO COUNTIES.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX MOUNTAINS...WRN TRANSPECOS NWD INTO THE
SERN NM PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252011Z - 252145Z
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DAVIS...DELAWARE
AND APACHE MOUNTAINS OF SW TX THIS AFTN...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORMING FARTHER S OVER JEFF DAVIS...PRESIDIO AND BREWSTER COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MORE STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER LEA
COUNTY NM.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ARE BEGINNING TO BREACH
THE CAP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AT
MID-AFTN. FURTHER HEATING ALONG THE LOWER TERRAIN WILL ALSO LIKELY
ALLOW STORMS TO SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE LWR TERRAIN LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING OVER THE WRN TRANSPECOS/PERMIAN BASIN.
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE OFFSET BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY RESULT WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAILSTONES. A
BRIEF LANDSPOUT MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT LCLS APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO PREVENT LONG LIVED TORNADOES.
..RACY.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
31680427 32880375 34050353 34100288 33170274 32440279
31780270 30900295 30140314 29100290 29040331 29600456
30590474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX MOUNTAINS...WRN TRANSPECOS NWD INTO THE
SERN NM PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252011Z - 252145Z
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE DAVIS...DELAWARE
AND APACHE MOUNTAINS OF SW TX THIS AFTN...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORMING FARTHER S OVER JEFF DAVIS...PRESIDIO AND BREWSTER COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MORE STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER LEA
COUNTY NM.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ARE BEGINNING TO BREACH
THE CAP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AT
MID-AFTN. FURTHER HEATING ALONG THE LOWER TERRAIN WILL ALSO LIKELY
ALLOW STORMS TO SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE LWR TERRAIN LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING OVER THE WRN TRANSPECOS/PERMIAN BASIN.
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE OFFSET BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY RESULT WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAILSTONES. A
BRIEF LANDSPOUT MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT LCLS APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO PREVENT LONG LIVED TORNADOES.
..RACY.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
31680427 32880375 34050353 34100288 33170274 32440279
31780270 30900295 30140314 29100290 29040331 29600456
30590474
0 likes
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARFA TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...WW
359...WW 360...WW 361...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX
AND WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY PROPAGATE EWD INTO WRN
TX AND THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING AS COLD POOLS STRENGTHEN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...RACY/HALES
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARFA TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...WW
359...WW 360...WW 361...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX
AND WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY PROPAGATE EWD INTO WRN
TX AND THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING AS COLD POOLS STRENGTHEN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...RACY/HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARFA TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...WW
359...WW 360...WW 361...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX
AND WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY PROPAGATE EWD INTO WRN
TX AND THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING AS COLD POOLS STRENGTHEN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...RACY/HALES
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Tornado outbreak again today?
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PART OF IOWA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
DODGE IOWA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...WW
359...WW 360...WW 361...
DISCUSSION...VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF IA
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL. POTENTIAL FOR LONG
LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PART OF IOWA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
DODGE IOWA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...WW
359...WW 360...WW 361...
DISCUSSION...VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF IA
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL. POTENTIAL FOR LONG
LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
0 likes
Re: Tornado outbreak again today?
Storm near Eagle River, WI should probably have a tornado warning on it. It's far away from any radars so it's a bit hard to tell, but the convective signature definitely looks suspicious and there is some rotation on the dopper velocities.
Last edited by btangy on Sun May 25, 2008 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Squarethecircle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
-
wbug1
Re: Tornado outbreak again today?
Unbelievable, and at about the same time as yesterday. This one will be much worse. Really bad.
0 likes
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT
* AT 347 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR MAPLE
LAKE...OR ABOUT 5 MILES EAST OF ANNANDALE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SILVER CREEK...
MONTICELLO...
BIG LAKE...
OTSEGO...
MAPLE LAKE...
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT
* AT 347 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR MAPLE
LAKE...OR ABOUT 5 MILES EAST OF ANNANDALE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SILVER CREEK...
MONTICELLO...
BIG LAKE...
OTSEGO...
MAPLE LAKE...
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECNTRL MN...NERN/NCNTRL IA AND WRN WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 359...
VALID 252050Z - 252215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 359 CONTINUES.
SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL MN JUST S OF KSTC AND
NE OF KRWF AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AMIDST RAPIDLY WARMING SFC
TEMPERATURES. THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD NEAR/JUST N OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
MINNEAPOLIS METROPOLITAN AREA. N OF THE BOUNDARY...ESELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WAS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WAS GOOD WITH 0-1KM
SRH OF 200+ M2/S2. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE
VEERED...LESSENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST NEAR AND N OF THE MINNEAPOLIS
METRO AREA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WCNTRL WI THROUGH 00Z.
OTHERWISE...STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT CNTRL/SERN MN...NRN IA AND
SWRN WI WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.
TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WATCH WIDE.
..RACY.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
31680427 32880375 34050353 34100288 33170274 32440279
31780270 30900295 30140314 29100290 29040331 29600456
30590474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECNTRL MN...NERN/NCNTRL IA AND WRN WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 359...
VALID 252050Z - 252215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 359 CONTINUES.
SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL MN JUST S OF KSTC AND
NE OF KRWF AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AMIDST RAPIDLY WARMING SFC
TEMPERATURES. THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD NEAR/JUST N OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
MINNEAPOLIS METROPOLITAN AREA. N OF THE BOUNDARY...ESELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WAS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WAS GOOD WITH 0-1KM
SRH OF 200+ M2/S2. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE
VEERED...LESSENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST NEAR AND N OF THE MINNEAPOLIS
METRO AREA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WCNTRL WI THROUGH 00Z.
OTHERWISE...STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT CNTRL/SERN MN...NRN IA AND
SWRN WI WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.
TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WATCH WIDE.
..RACY.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
31680427 32880375 34050353 34100288 33170274 32440279
31780270 30900295 30140314 29100290 29040331 29600456
30590474
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
TORNADO WARNING
KSC165-252130-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0059.080525T2051Z-080525T2130Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT
* AT 349 PM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES
WEST OF NEKOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEXANDER...
NEKOMA...
HARGRAVE...
LA CROSSE...
BISON...
LIEBENTHAL...
LORETTA...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF RUSH COUNTY.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
LACROSSE...LORETTA AND LIEBENTHAL AND IN THIS PATH OF THIS TORNADO.
TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
LAT...LON 3869 9949 3869 9903 3845 9903 3840 9950
3848 9958
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 226DEG 24KT 3846 9945
$$
FINCH
KSC165-252130-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0059.080525T2051Z-080525T2130Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT
* AT 349 PM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES
WEST OF NEKOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEXANDER...
NEKOMA...
HARGRAVE...
LA CROSSE...
BISON...
LIEBENTHAL...
LORETTA...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF RUSH COUNTY.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
LACROSSE...LORETTA AND LIEBENTHAL AND IN THIS PATH OF THIS TORNADO.
TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
LAT...LON 3869 9949 3869 9903 3845 9903 3840 9950
3848 9958
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 226DEG 24KT 3846 9945
$$
FINCH
0 likes
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: snownado and 31 guests