Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[HurricaneRobert]

The bear's just watching out for us.

[Eyewall]

One thing that is noticable all the moisture is located on the eastern side of the strorm.

[jaxfladude]

The bear's just watching out for us.

What a load to bear.....
if this scenario bears out....
I hope that we all can bear this season...

[Ivanhater]

204 hrs..

[Ivanhater]

Landfall Florida panhandle..which is quite a common track for this time of year..

[Aric Dunn]

shows it at 96 hours .. 4 days .. the moisture and or what ever is supposed to start should be entering the carribean in the next 2 days according to most of the models the gfs at 90 hours closes the low off but there is a lot of moisture down there starting late monday tuesday..
so if in 2 days the sw carribean becomes more unsettle with some convection then i will really pay attention

[Eyewall]

It seems like it gets stronger on this run the closer to landfall.

[KWT]

Well this run is interesting, 18z now developing a system by the end of the week then takes it over the Yucatan for a short while before emerging into the gulf and steadily heading NE towards the panhandle, so all in all a pretty typical tpye track for a May/June storm to take, also it looks like a pretty decent strength system, whilst I know you cant take models for real in terms of strength its fair to say that it would probably be at least a middle end tropical storm if the 18z was, at least.

Aric, in some ways you can already see some scattered convection present close to the Sw Caribbean at the moment but as you say if the GFS is right that should increase in the next 48hrs.

[jaxfladude]

It seems like it gets stronger on this run the closer to landfall.

I hope that is more rain and a longer downpour for the parts of the Florida Panhandle/Peninsula that really and truly need some rain to quell the drought/or soon to be drought.......any chance that this system may go into Georgia and to that state's hardest hit drought areas?

[Opal storm]

It seems like it gets stronger on this run the closer to landfall.

I hope that is more rain and a longer downpour for the parts of the Florida Panhandle/Peninsula that really and truly need some rain to quell the drought/or soon to be drought.......any chance that this system may go into Georgia and to that state's hardest hit drought areas?

No telling where this thing goes yet, hasn't even developed. Until it actually shows up I wouldn't pay much attention to where the models are taking it.

[NDG]

It seems like it gets stronger on this run the closer to landfall.

I hope that is more rain and a longer downpour for the parts of the Florida Panhandle/Peninsula that really and truly need some rain to quell the drought/or soon to be drought.......any chance that this system may go into Georgia and to that state's hardest hit drought areas?

Too early to tell, way too early.

[KWT]

Yep its too early to know though there is a trend by the model runs to try and take this to-be system close to the Yucatan, though this is the first run I've seen where the GFs actually has it making landfall.

[jaxfladude]

It seems like it gets stronger on this run the closer to landfall.

I hope that is more rain and a longer downpour for the parts of the Florida Panhandle/Peninsula that really and truly need some rain to quell the drought/or soon to be drought.......any chance that this system may go into Georgia and to that state's hardest hit drought areas?

Too early to tell, way too early.

Sorry got caught up in the hoopla of this thread....

[Aric Dunn]

well lets see if we can see some sort of pattern shift that would bring some moisture back to the carrib?? first how are the trade winds in the Carribean? need to know because if the winds are as east to west and as strong as normal than we wont have much of any convection or moisture return. so here are the plot of the winds and pressure over the carrib from the local bouys shown nice pressure falls and the trade winds lowering quite a bit ( thats over a couple days. )
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=GMT
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=GMT

satellite loops showing a large trough that has dug down and eroded the ridge that has been in place for a while so also a good sign which makes since the trade winds are lowering all good news for some increased moisture
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

and here is the TPW
showing the precipitable water right nothing there .. but it shows the that trough digging down.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

The MJO also forecast to become more favorable. starting tomorrow and peaking around the 31st or so.
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO.forecast.olr.png


anyway all in all there seems to be a shift in the pattern across the Carribean going on so we should see a more favorable time for Convection to return to Sw carribean.

[Aric Dunn]

wow just re read that ... lol sounds terrible .. i should have checked it first.. sorry

and its still way to early .. im just pointing out some stuff.. cause right now the Carribean is dry!!

[Eyewall]

Whell it looks like this storm is going to have everything it needs to develop. Let the hurricane season begin.

[KWT]

If anything were to form I suspect given the dry air present it would very likely have that lop-sided look with dry air probably on the western side whilst the eastern side would drag up moister air from the south.

[Opal storm]

Whell it looks like this storm is going to have everything it needs to develop. Let the hurricane season begin.

No storm in early June ever has everything it needs to develop.IF it does develop it will more than likely be a sheared mess much like Arlene, Alberto or Barry like typical June storms are.

[jimvb]

I don't like this at all. Now the run shows The Bear running over where I live, near Richmond, Va, giving us strong winds and huge amounts of rain. This reminds me of a bear that roamed around the Richmond area recently. It came from the southwest, crossed the James to get to downtown, crossed it again, and wandered onto I-95, where a tractor trailer creamed it into bearmeat. I hope the Storm goes elsewhere, because tractor trailers can't clobber that Bear.

[Duddy]