Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Ed Mahmoud]

pro-met "#45" at NWS HGX not buying any of it.

MODELS CONTINUE SPIN UP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EXTREME WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE SYSTEM ORIGINATES IN THE PACIFIC ROTATES OVER
HONDURAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN EITHER OVER THE YUCATAN OR
THROUGH THE YUCATAN STRAITS...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE.
AFTER LOOKING AT THE INITIAL MODEL WINDS AND THE
SCATTEROMETER/SATELLITE WINDS AM FINDING IT VERY HARD TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO. PERHAPS A BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE BUT AM
VERY SKEPTICAL OF ANYTHING VERY ORGANIZED DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGED
DRAMATICALLY BY SATURDAY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND WITH A SYSTEM MOVING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WILL BE PARING BACK POPS A LITTLE IN THE EXTENDED AND CONTINUING
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
45

[Aric Dunn]

here is the gfs track for it.

[Aric Dunn]

haha .... watch the low off africa with this run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 174 Hours Low at Southern BOC.

[Aric Dunn]

174 still stuck
i imagine we can disregard the later portion of this run it seems very unlikely that it will be over land so long and still be intact.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif

[Eyewall]

Let me guess Mexico landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the nogaps

[RL3AO]

haha .... watch the low off africa with this run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The low comes into the picture at like 5N.

[Ed Mahmoud]

174 still stuck
i imagine we can disregard the later portion of this run it seems very unlikely that it will be over land so long and still be intact.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif

A weak system with favorable upper levels over fairly flat terrain may linger several days. Erin lasted long enough to reach Oklahoma and get some extra-tropical juicing, 2001's Allison was over Texas several days and kept some semblance of a structure.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 252 Hours Low gets organized in BOC but still not moves too much.

[Aric Dunn]

cmc

[Eyewall]

Very weak steering currents on this run.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS at 252 Hours Low gets organized in BOC but still not moves too much.

yeah thats why i would say just throw out the gfs after about 160 hrs since but the time 250hrs has gone by it will have very near or over the land that entire time.

[Vortex]

Nogaps 12Z rolling in..

H+24 Low showing N of Panama

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=024

H+36 Convection increasing

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=036

H+48 1008 low and more organized convection N of Panama E of Nicaragua

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=048

H+84 Broad area of low pressure. Large area of disturbed weather.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=084

H+120 Fairly favorable conditions aloft as low is over NW carribean


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=120

NOGAPS Loop

Brings TS with Flooding rains to Keys/Southern florida

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008052612

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop GOM does not escape from this.

Whole 12z GFS Loop Here is the whole 12z run in the loop.

[NDG]

12z CMC is very similar to GFS, it also raises ridging along the gulfcoast to steer the system after reaching the Gulf of Honduras into the Yucatan and BOC through day 6.

[Eyewall]

In the future this could turn out to be a hard storm to forecast.

[Eyewall]

FLorida landfall and up the east coast these modles are crazey.

[NDG]

12z nogaps so far is bringing even more moisture and a stronger vorticity into the southern Caribbean

[Cookiely]

They mentioned on the TV that the models were spinning up something tropical. "Its that time of year".