Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[MiamiensisWx]

I'll illustrate the previous posters' points and my thoughts by demonstrating that the operational GFS develops it by ~72 hours (Thursday) or slightly earlier. We are now in the short to low end medium range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_072l.gif

In fact, it develops the surface low in the southern Caribbean Sea off Central America by ~48 hours on Wednesday!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_048l.gif

...and I'm one of the very last posters to hype any system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The continued delaying of the development of this "storm" is a classic sign of a "modelcane". First it was the 25th, then 27th, then 30th. It's always just a little be further down the road.

maybe, but it has creeped a little closer in time to the current.

The NOGAPS solution (assuming it is generally correct but the model, because of coarser resolution of a global isn't underestimating the strength) is the perfect solution to end wildfire season in Florida and ensure a 1998 style fire- out of the then Pepsi 400 (now the Coke Zero 400) doesn't repeat with a not to strong tropical storm that rains a lot on Florida. Not that I'd wishcast that or anything.

Image works if the security certificate thing the Navy web sites cause most computers to freak at isn't set to ignore.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I must have hit quote and not edit.

[KWT]

Yep the LP gets defined around 72hrs on this run, so the GFS has followed this through from 200hrs+ down to 72hrs, its certainly been consitant though of course that doesn't mean its going to be right of course!

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep the LP gets defined around 72hrs on this run, so the GFS has followed this through from 200hrs+ down to 72hrs, its certainly been consitant though of course that doesn't mean its going to be right of course!

Check it again... it develops it by 48 hours or less!

[Opal storm]

Any reason why Coke Zero 400 has been mentioned 14,639 times in this thread and now a giant picture of a race car? Just wondering, not something you usually see in a thread about models developing a tropical disturbance in the EPAC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Any reason why Coke Zero 400 has been mentioned 14,639 times in this thread and now a giant picture of a race car? Just wondering, not something you usually see in a thread about models developing a tropical disturbance in the EPAC.

No reason. Coke Zero 400 free thread from here on out. Not really a baseball fan so I'm out of season until camps start. But no more NASCAR. Espcially if that means a Tom Brady in a halter avatar. Nope, no NASCAR.


Race car was to demonstrate difference between Navy .gif images and non-Navy .gif images.

[MiamiensisWx]

This is potentially a HUGE victory for the operational GFS, some ensembles, and other models. The GFS continually depicted development as early as Saturday of last week (more than 200 hours out). Now we see development in the southern Caribbean by 48 hours (on this Wednesday).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_048l.gif

This almost matches the amazing feat when it forecasted Dean's development more than 300 hours out.

Game, set, match! The tropics are coming to life...

[cycloneye]

This is potentially a HUGE victory for the operational GFS, some ensembles, and other models. The GFS continually depicted development as early as Saturday of last week (more than 200 hours out). Now we see development in the southern Caribbean by 48 hours (on this Wednesday).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_048l.gif

This almost matches the amazing feat when it forecasted Dean's development more than 300 hours out.

Game, set, match! The tropics are coming to life...

It means that if GFS gets it right from the gate,then it has to be the first model to pay attention in 2008.

[Ivanhater]

Plus it's not like were talking about something thats supposed to come into play..the disturbed weather is cooking (as forecasted by GFS a week ago)..we are now in the looking at sat images phase..

[KWT]

Interestingly there doesn't seem to be any track that is favored looking at historical systems from early June's, granted there isn't much of a sample to base it from to be fair, there is a large difference between a system that tracks through 20N close to the Yucatan to one that is a good 100 miles further east, which favors a possible Florida/Cuba landfall and track NE.

Also yep we are now reaching the sat. phase where we can see the convection bubbling up in the Sw Caribbean.

[JonathanBelles]

NAM is running.

[tolakram]

How is anything going to form with the current wind shear and what looks to be a lot more heading that way?

[Noles2006]

It would be quite a feat for the GFS if something does develop down there in the next few days.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, things are starting to fall into place, now. Didn't think we'd be in the satellite watching phase for several days.

[KWT]

If from what I've heard is right the shear is because of the presence of the cold front presently in the Caribbean though don't quote me on that!

the cold front will be lifting away from the SW Caribbean in the next 24-48hrs I believe and that area of lower shear spreads into the regon where development is possible.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm still somewhat skeptical of seeing anything other than some disturbed weather.

[gatorcane]

Miami Discussion, not jumping in this whole tropical system thing just yet ---

ALSO... LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, DAY 6+, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT A POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CARIBBEAN
THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE GULF, OR STAY IN THE CARIBBEAN. ATTM, GUIDANCE
BOUNCES GREATLY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY INFLUENCE OUTSIDE SCT THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

[MiamiensisWx]

Miami Discussion, not jumping in this whole tropical system thing just yet ---

ALSO... LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, DAY 6+, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT A POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CARIBBEAN
THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE GULF, OR STAY IN THE CARIBBEAN. ATTM, GUIDANCE
BOUNCES GREATLY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY INFLUENCE OUTSIDE SCT THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

That's because there is uncertainty regarding the actual path of the plausible tropical system. Although the operational GFS and other suites develop the surface low and reflection within ~24-48 hours, the GFS brings it closest to Florida by the sixth day. Miami NWS actually support the solution of development over the next two days, but its future impact to southern Florida or any other region is highly uncertain. Firstly, it needs to develop.

[stormhunter7]

I was thinking the tropical wave to the east of area we will be watching will be the kick this area will need to get a low there.... its currently over the south american coast.... and the GFS started fishing this thing back on the 19th... this would be interesting if this thing actually got something out of it... will know later this week!