Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Cookiely]

Some one had said that it was mention on tv about possible tropical development. And I wanted the website to that news station.

It was a local station in Tampa. Don't know if it was channel 8 or 10.

[Vortex]

June 1966 Hurricane Alma....Hmmmm

Hurricane Alma was a rare June major hurricane in the 1966 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the earliest continental U.S. hurricane strike within any season since 1825. It brought moderate rains to the Southeast, and wind damage was mainly confined to Florida.


Storm path In early June, a trough in the westerlies extended from the southeastern United States towards Nicaragua. A surface circulation formed near Cabo Gracias a Dios, also known as Cape Gracias, on June 3, and drifted southwestward over land. The circulation organized into Tropical Depression One early on June 4 over the Honduras/Nicaragua border, where it turned to a north drift, dropping heavy rain across the countries.

Upon reaching the Caribbean Sea on June 5, the depression was able to strengthen, with warm water temperatures, good outflow, and deep convection. When the only inhibiting factor, land, was removed, the depression rapidly intensified, becoming Tropical Storm Alma on the 6th and reaching hurricane status that night. Initially a slow mover, Alma accelerated to the northeast, where it reached winds of 95 mph (153 km/h) before hitting the Isle of Youth on the 8th.

Just six hours after crossing the Isle of Youth, Alma hit western Cuba. Because it crossed at one of the narrowest points of the island, the hurricane didn't weaken at all. On the contrary, upon reaching the Gulf of Mexico, Alma reached major hurricane status with peak winds of 130 mph (210 km/h) late on June 8. It passed between the Dry Tortugas and Key West, Florida at that intensity, and began a north-northwest motion in response to an upper level cyclone developing over the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico.

After crossing the Florida west coast, Alma weakened quickly, and hit Apalachee Bay on June 9 as a 90 mph (140 km/h) hurricane. The storm turned to the northeast, where it weakened to a 45 mph (72 km/h) tropical storm while crossing Georgia. On June 11 Alma emerged into the Atlantic near Savannah, Georgia, and continued its northeast movement. While paralleling the Carolina coastline over the Gulf Stream, Alma briefly restrengthened into a hurricane on the night of the 11th. This intensification trend ended when cold waters and dry air approached the system, causing Alma to lose its tropical characteristics on June 13 while east of the Delmarva Peninsula. As an extratropical storm, Alma lasted another day before dissipating near Cape Cod

[JonathanBelles]

NAM still in the EPAC

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY AND RETREATS WESTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THE LATTER FEATURE BRINGS A WEAK TROF/FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WHICH STALLS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE AMORPHOUS
TROF LINGERS INTO THURSDAY AND ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT...SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS. /29

&&

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING STRADDLES
THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY
AS A PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PLAINS
SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AND BRINGS A
WEAK TRAILING FRONT/TROF INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES ON MONDAY.
SMALL POPS MAINLY FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS MOVED ACROSS THE YUCATAN ON A WESTERLY
TRACK BY THE GFS AND ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN GEM TAKES THE
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE GFS ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE WESTERLY
TRACK BUT ALL IN ALL WILL JUST NEED TO CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING.
/29

[RL3AO]

The continued delaying of the development of this "storm" is a classic sign of a "modelcane". First it was the 25th, then 27th, then 30th. It's always just a little be further down the road.

I think I noticed that about 5 days ago.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think I noticed that about 5 days ago.

Have you personally looked at several models such as the GFS? Currently, it develops it in 48 hours. It previously depicted surface reflection and cyclogenesis beyond 200 hours last Saturday.

[RL3AO]

Is it up to 48 now? I thought it was like 114 last night.

[Eyewall]

What time do the new modle runs come out.

[MiamiensisWx]

Is it up to 48 now? I thought it was like 114 last night.

48 hours

[MiamiensisWx]

TAFB surface analysis

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Mexico.gif

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

These are good links for surface data over the upcoming days.

[Aric Dunn]

not the best probabilities .. but they are coming up .. for the SW carrib

[RL3AO]

1.5%. The highest of the season.

[cycloneye]

1.5%. The highest of the season.

I know that you voted 90L will not be up,but you changed your mind after what you haved seen?

[Aric Dunn]

there is a bit of a tropical wave coming into the picture.. its not the most well defined wave .. can hardly pick up on it from satellite but that may be the trigger if something is to get going..

[Thunder44]

I think the convection in the Carribean now will die down tonight. Some of the models still show more development in the EPAC than in the SW Carribean. Even the 12z GGEM showed development occuring in EPAC before it crossed over into the NW Carribean.

[Aric Dunn]

overall pressure trends in the Sw carribean are on the decrease with a average about 1008 mb down from nearly 1015 .. a few days ago. also the trade winds have dropped off a lot which is a sign of things to come .. we will see a much larger area of convection spreading northward from the Sw carrib over the next 24 36 hrs.

[MiamiensisWx]

18Z GFS initializes a weak surface low (1009 mb) in the southern Caribbean basin near Panama.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_000l.gif

It deepens a new secondary low (budding tropical system) in 18 hours east of Central America.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_018l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

18Z GFS initializes a weak surface low (1009 mb) in the southern Caribbean basin near Panama.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_000l.gif

not supprised the pressure in the area is down quite a bit..

[RL3AO]

I know that you voted 90L will not be up,but you changed your mind after what you haved seen?

I think its 45/55 that we will get 90L. So no I haven't.

[KWT]

Yeah I've got a feeling that tropical wave could just enhance the convection that bit more as it comes westward and allow the circulation we appear to have presently to develop further.

I think the models that develop an EPAC system are picking up on the convection that is present much further west, doesn't appear to be any turning with that right now though.