Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[KWT]

Looks like its going inland towards the Yucatan, a lot further south then any of the other runs the GFS has had recently mind you.

[JonathanBelles]

yea, Land is gonna be a pretty big problem.

[Vortex]

It will be very hard for a system to move much westward this time of the year, ridges are usually not that strong yet, and the whole atmosphere still moves from W to east in the mid latitudes, if indeed we have development it will find a NE path sooner or later.

NDG,

Absoloutely agree.

[MiamiensisWx]

yea, Land is gonna be a pretty big problem.

The "land issue" is overrated when compared to the low level thermodynamics and upper level environment. Several tropical storms have strengthened in close proximity to Central America.

[KWT]

Its not true that this system will go agianst the norm because if it forms where the GFS forms it and takes it close to the Yucatan below 20N then just about anything could happen, there is no path that is favored if that occurs looking back at historical storms that form in that region between the 1st-15th of June.

Also I do think land interaction is a problem but its not the be-all and end all...high still retreating at 126hrs as well....its going to turn northwards still.

[NDG]

Big time weakness on this run for it to move NW and eventually NE.

[MiamiensisWx]

Its not true that this system will go agianst the norm because if it forms where the GFS forms it and takes it close to the Yucatan below 20N then just about anything could happen, there is no path that is favored if that occurs looking back at historical storms that form in that region between the 1st-15th of June.

I concur. The main issue why I disagreed with the operational GFS and its ensembles is the fact that they tend to have overestimated the western extent of several tropical cyclones' tracks prior to their genesis in May/June across the southern Caribbean basin.

[Vortex]

Mind you 100 miles to the east of this run may make a HUGE difference all in the realm of possibility

[Eyewall]

As long as the center is in the water it will still develop.

[KWT]

Big time weakness on this run for it to move NW and eventually NE.

Yep on this run I think that will probably occur, the high is clearly retreating eastwards and as it does so the system will slowly but surely get caught in the westerlies and get thrown so tp speak to the NE but where it will land who knows?

[HURAKAN]

The latest run looks very similar to Arlene, 2005, in that the low pressure system developed over Central America and the system became a depression after moving over the WCAR.

[cycloneye]

Whoa I am looking east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[HURAKAN]

Whoa I am looking east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

Arthur and Bertha, in June? In the same week? A dream come true!!!!

[jlauderdal]

I'm about to jump off this bandwagon, I don't see anything significant coming out of this anymore. Too much land to deal with and not very favorable conditions aloft either. Unless that ridge breaks down and gives it more room to work with it's just going to get sheared off to the west into Mexico and be a big rain maker. May have a brief window of opportunity off the Yucatan before going inland though.

1. Most June conditions for cyclogenesis are not optimal, but they do not prohibit slight development to a weak or moderate system (TS). In some cases, hurricanes like Alma 1966 and Allison 1995 have developed, but that is highly unlikely in this situation.
2. Several tropical depressions have actually developed over land in Central America during May and June in the historical records.

Can you let me know which tropical depressions formed over land?

Thanks,
jlauderdal

[Vortex]

Cyclone noticed that at H+168 continues just south of the cape verde..

[Derek Ortt]

A model that is producing a CV storm in MAY is a model that should be considered highly suspect.

I am wondering about the parameterization changes made during the offseason

[Eyewall]

The GFS is sticking it's neck on the line developing a storm off the coast of Africa in June.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm about to jump off this bandwagon, I don't see anything significant coming out of this anymore. Too much land to deal with and not very favorable conditions aloft either. Unless that ridge breaks down and gives it more room to work with it's just going to get sheared off to the west into Mexico and be a big rain maker. May have a brief window of opportunity off the Yucatan before going inland though.

1. Most June conditions for cyclogenesis are not optimal, but they do not prohibit slight development to a weak or moderate system (TS). In some cases, hurricanes like Alma 1966 and Allison 1995 have developed, but that is highly unlikely in this situation.
2. Several tropical depressions have actually developed over land in Central America during May and June in the historical records.

Can you let me know which tropical depressions formed over land?

Thanks,
jlauderdal

quite a few TDs have developed over land (even some TSs like Opal and Elena)

[Eyewall]

Tropical storm cindy also developed close to the land.

[HURAKAN]

The GFS is sticking it's neck on the line developing a storm off the coast of Africa in June.

We have already seen a low pressure system developing with a TW in the central Atlantic. In 2000, the 2nd TD of the season was almost a TS in June in the central Atlantic. Therefore, it wouldn't be unherd of. Still, it's not very common either!!!