Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#821 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 26, 2008 9:48 pm

Image



Looks like some turning over land.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#822 Postby boca » Mon May 26, 2008 9:53 pm

RL3AO wrote:Image



Looks like some turning over land.

Image


It looks like that quickscat is at 11N and 91w and on the second pic over Panama,if I'm reading it correctly.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#823 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 26, 2008 9:54 pm

boca wrote:
It looks like that quickscat is at 11N and 91w and on the second pic over Panama,if I'm reading it correctly.


Yep. The low over the EPac almost looks closed.
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#824 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon May 26, 2008 9:58 pm

Is there any geographic phenomena that would make the wind do that?
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#825 Postby boca » Mon May 26, 2008 9:58 pm

The thing is that its very early in the game and we will probably see these low pressure eddies form then disapate until it gets its act together. I noticed also in the IR2 mode that the clouds are moving ENE in the E Pac along the convergence zone.
0 likes   

User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Carbondale, Pennsylvania

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#826 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon May 26, 2008 9:59 pm

Its a pretty broad circulation and I wonder if it even extends to the surface. Nonetheless its something to watch as it looks like conditions may become a little more favorable as shear is expected to drop.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re:

#827 Postby boca » Mon May 26, 2008 10:00 pm

fact789 wrote:Is there any geographic phenomena that would make the wind do that?



Great question we need a pro met.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15463
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#828 Postby NDG » Mon May 26, 2008 10:08 pm

boca wrote:


I saw the low level turning on IR4 and you can really see it better on IR2.


Most likely a mid level circulation, usually happens after heavy convection dies down.

Sat. loop
Last edited by NDG on Mon May 26, 2008 10:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#829 Postby vbhoutex » Mon May 26, 2008 10:12 pm

HELLO EVERYONE!!!

STORM2K still requires the normal S2K disclaimer on any forecasts such as the ones I have seen already in this forum. Please abide by the rules of the site as usual. We should not even need to remind our veteran posters!!!

It reads as follows"

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Please use it!!
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#830 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon May 26, 2008 10:16 pm

NDG wrote:
boca wrote:


I saw the low level turning on IR4 and you can really see it better on IR2.


Most likely a mid level circulation, usually happens after heavy convection dies down.


The Quik-Scat images posted suggested this area just missed being scanned. IR2 is the best I can think of, when it is a bit too dark for visible.


Calm or very light West winds in Panama, with fairly low pressure (1008 mb)


Edit to add because of disclaimer post added while I composed this:
No disclaimer, because I have no idea what happens next.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#831 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 26, 2008 10:18 pm

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34064
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#832 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 26, 2008 10:32 pm

Will this be 90E or 90L if it gets classified as an Invest since it seems to be hugging both basins?
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15463
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#833 Postby NDG » Mon May 26, 2008 10:33 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
NDG wrote:
boca wrote:
I saw the low level turning on IR4 and you can really see it better on IR2.


Most likely a mid level circulation, usually happens after heavy convection dies down.


The Quik-Scat images posted suggested this area just missed being scanned. IR2 is the best I can think of, when it is a bit too dark for visible.


Calm or very light West winds in Panama, with fairly low pressure (1008 mb)


Edit to add because of disclaimer post added while I composed this:
No disclaimer, because I have no idea what happens next.

Definitely MLC, I took a closer look at shortwave IR and definitely is in the mid levels, I only see the mid and high level clouds spinning, still with a broad low at the surface.
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

Re:

#834 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon May 26, 2008 10:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Will this be 90E or 90L if it gets classified as an Invest since it seems to be hugging both basins?


90CentralAmerica XD....I dont know.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

Re:

#835 Postby Chacor » Mon May 26, 2008 10:34 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Will this be 90E or 90L if it gets classified as an Invest since it seems to be hugging both basins?


That would depend on where they determine the LLC to be, surely.
0 likes   

Eyewall

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean=00z GFS Shortly

#836 Postby Eyewall » Mon May 26, 2008 10:35 pm

slow development.
Last edited by Eyewall on Mon May 26, 2008 10:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146100
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean=00z GFS Rolling in

#837 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2008 10:37 pm

Start of 00z GFS Run It starts with a 1007 mb low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 24 Hours EPAC low,nothing yet at Caribbean.

00z GFS at 30 Hours Trying to form low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 48 Hours Nothing definitive yet in SW Caribbean.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#838 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 26, 2008 10:39 pm

Thats interesting.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146100
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean=00z GFS Rolling in

#839 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2008 10:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:Start of 00z GFS Run It starts with a 1007 mb low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 24 Hours EPAC low,nothing yet at Caribbean.

00z GFS at 30 Hours Trying to form low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 48 Hours 1006 mb low just north of Costa Rica.

00z GFS at 60 Hours 1007 mb low in the same place.

00z GFS at 72 Hours Stucked over land in CentralAmerica.

00z GFS at 90 Hours Low just north of Honduras.

0 likes   

Eyewall

Re: Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean=00z GFS Rolling in

#840 Postby Eyewall » Mon May 26, 2008 11:04 pm

Every GFS run seems to have it going over land and then back out over water.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cajungal, Cpv17, gatorcane, Hurricane2022, Steve H., Stratton23 and 96 guests