EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

I checked half an hour ago...


If this gains any organization at all, it should preclude talk of something developing in the Caribbean. I guess it doesn't preclude the possibility of something crossing Central America into the Caribbean, but I don't think that has happened in almost eighteen years.

[HURAKAN]

A floater should be available soon, but this shot a great.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wonder when the tropical models will start coming out, and with the Ohio State twister site being ruined by a recent re-model, I wonder where we'll find text output of said models...

[KWT]

Should be noted that this is just an invest though, no certainty its going to develop...however that being said its got to be an early fav for something to form, its got a decent looking circulation present with it on the loops and whilst shear looks higher to its south right now its in an area that is pretty decent for some sort of development.

first invest of the season closer to home!

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

I still think its got a way to go before it becomes worthy of a tropical depression mind you looking at the images of it right now, its way too scattered at present needs to concentrate I feel.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Saying that it looks like convection is starting to increase in the EPAC now, this will certainly be interesting to watch because if it carries on developing more and more convection like it may well be doing could well see something from this.

[Aric Dunn]

HERE are the tropical models for 90 E


009
WHXX01 KMIA 271826
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC TUE MAY 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902008) 20080527 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080527 1800 080528 0600 080528 1800 080529 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 90.0W 9.7N 90.3W 9.5N 90.6W 9.5N 90.6W
BAMD 10.0N 90.0W 9.9N 90.0W 10.2N 90.3W 10.7N 90.8W
BAMM 10.0N 90.0W 9.7N 89.7W 9.9N 89.8W 10.4N 89.9W
LBAR 10.0N 90.0W 10.3N 89.8W 11.4N 90.2W 13.1N 91.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080529 1800 080530 1800 080531 1800 080601 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 90.4W 10.7N 89.7W 12.5N 88.7W 14.9N 88.9W
BAMD 11.5N 91.8W 13.2N 94.2W 14.3N 96.6W 14.1N 99.3W
BAMM 10.9N 90.4W 11.9N 91.2W 12.3N 91.8W 12.5N 92.3W
LBAR 15.3N 92.1W 19.9N 95.2W 22.4N 96.7W 23.1N 97.3W
SHIP 49KTS 56KTS 61KTS 68KTS
DSHP 49KTS 56KTS 61KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 90.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 90.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 90.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 200NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Aric Dunn]

brings it NE

[Aric Dunn]

here is the hurricane models

[Cyclone1]

Interesting track, but to get reliable tracks, we need a distinguishable center.

[KWT]

Very interesting indeed, the SHIPS brings it upto hurricane strength and given the track if it does develop it could well be a risk to southern coastline of Mexico?

Mind you it has it as a tropical storm in 24hrs...which I have to admit I'm not buying at all right now.

Is there any chance of a recon for this system or not?

[cycloneye]

HERE are the tropical models for 90 E


009
WHXX01 KMIA 271826
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC TUE MAY 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902008) 20080527 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080527 1800 080528 0600 080528 1800 080529 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 90.0W 9.7N 90.3W 9.5N 90.6W 9.5N 90.6W
BAMD 10.0N 90.0W 9.9N 90.0W 10.2N 90.3W 10.7N 90.8W
BAMM 10.0N 90.0W 9.7N 89.7W 9.9N 89.8W 10.4N 89.9W
LBAR 10.0N 90.0W 10.3N 89.8W 11.4N 90.2W 13.1N 91.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080529 1800 080530 1800 080531 1800 080601 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 90.4W 10.7N 89.7W 12.5N 88.7W 14.9N 88.9W
BAMD 11.5N 91.8W 13.2N 94.2W 14.3N 96.6W 14.1N 99.3W
BAMM 10.9N 90.4W 11.9N 91.2W 12.3N 91.8W 12.5N 92.3W
LBAR 15.3N 92.1W 19.9N 95.2W 22.4N 96.7W 23.1N 97.3W
SHIP 49KTS 56KTS 61KTS 68KTS
DSHP 49KTS 56KTS 61KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 90.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 90.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 90.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 200NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Do you have the link to the tropical models as I cant get in with the link I have?

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ic/models/

[Aric Dunn]

HERE are the tropical models for 90 E


009
WHXX01 KMIA 271826
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC TUE MAY 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902008) 20080527 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080527 1800 080528 0600 080528 1800 080529 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 90.0W 9.7N 90.3W 9.5N 90.6W 9.5N 90.6W
BAMD 10.0N 90.0W 9.9N 90.0W 10.2N 90.3W 10.7N 90.8W
BAMM 10.0N 90.0W 9.7N 89.7W 9.9N 89.8W 10.4N 89.9W
LBAR 10.0N 90.0W 10.3N 89.8W 11.4N 90.2W 13.1N 91.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080529 1800 080530 1800 080531 1800 080601 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 90.4W 10.7N 89.7W 12.5N 88.7W 14.9N 88.9W
BAMD 11.5N 91.8W 13.2N 94.2W 14.3N 96.6W 14.1N 99.3W
BAMM 10.9N 90.4W 11.9N 91.2W 12.3N 91.8W 12.5N 92.3W
LBAR 15.3N 92.1W 19.9N 95.2W 22.4N 96.7W 23.1N 97.3W
SHIP 49KTS 56KTS 61KTS 68KTS
DSHP 49KTS 56KTS 61KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 90.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 90.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 90.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 200NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Do you have the link to the tropical models as I cant get in with the link I have?

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ic/models/

they just re did the site im not sure if its better ... and there is a lot missing so im not sure if they are done updating it. i looked around there site for along time trying to find the index again.
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/

[cycloneye]

Ok Aric,thank you for the new link,that I am sure not only me but others wanted to get,right Ed?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok Aric,thank you for the new link,that I am sure not only me but others wanted to get,right Ed?

Ohio State's site was perfect, and the fixed what wasn't broken...

[NDG]

I would not be surprised the next time they run the models they start 90E further like 9N & 88W, it seems that the vorticity they initiated it with has been pushing east during the afternoon.

[KWT]

Its really hard though to know if thats the same vortex or not another one that has just recently developed NDG, thats why these systems are so tough to forecast I suppose!