EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=EP902008

In the loop it looks like the light of a thunderstorm was captured in the picture. Looks kind of cool.

[KWT]

Have to admit that image doesn't make this invest look all that impressive, no doubt it got invest status becuase of its circulation but convection still isn't that impressive and its still scattered I feel.

[JonathanBelles]

Is there an HD satellite in that area?

[KWT]

I'm not sure to be honest. I should note despite what I feel about what the system looks like now I still wouldn't be at all surprised if it does develop into a cyclone of some sorts (be it TD or higher!) but I think the SHIPS are on the agressive side. IF we see better convection overnight then I will be far more interested.

Still its got a good circulation I'll admit that and the southern half of the system is starting to look better...I reckon we could have a TD tomorrow from this...

[MiamiensisWx]

Big change has occurred throughout the day. As upper level shear decreases, an excellent environment of divergence is presented. Low level vorticity is also decent, and low level convergence is increasing. Overall, we may see a TD by tomorrow, though I don't expect significant intensification beyond a weak system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

It certainly is looking better and better, I think my post about an hour ago was probably a little harsh on the system presentation, the southern side is clearly sucking in moisture from the ITCZ and is probably strengthening right at this min. If it carries on like this it may be a matter of when and not if it gets upgraded.

[HURAKAN]

The low appears to be consolidating near Costa Rica.

[Cyclone1]

Personally, I think this invest may end up in the Carribean. If that happens, by chance, would it remain 90E, or become 90L?

[senorpepr]

Personally, I think this invest may end up in the Carribean. If that happens, by chance, would it remain 90E, or become 90L?

90L

[Cyclone1]

Personally, I think this invest may end up in the Carribean. If that happens, by chance, would it remain 90E, or become 90L?

90L

Ah, that's what I thought.

[Eyewall]

We will have a TD by tomorrow if this keeps up.

[cycloneye]

458
ABPZ20 KNHC 272358
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF COSTA RICA HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OR DRIFTS EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

This system may move to the Caribbean Sea before everything is set and done.

[RL3AO]

Jeez. The HWRF is crazy. 90kt landfall in 42 hours.

[JonathanBelles]

Jeez. The HWRF is crazy. 90kt landfall in 42 hours.

where are you getting it? NCEP is saying ' No hurricane model graphics available for this time.'

[RL3AO]

Jeez. The HWRF is crazy. 90kt landfall in 42 hours.

where are you getting it? NCEP is saying ' No hurricane model graphics available for this time.'

gfdl
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

hwrf
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 280017
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0017 UTC WED MAY 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902008) 20080528 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080528 0000 080528 1200 080529 0000 080529 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 88.7W 9.6N 88.8W 9.8N 88.8W 10.2N 88.4W
BAMD 9.8N 88.7W 10.1N 88.7W 10.8N 89.1W 11.6N 90.0W
BAMM 9.8N 88.7W 10.0N 88.7W 10.6N 89.0W 11.1N 89.5W
LBAR 9.8N 88.7W 10.4N 88.5W 11.9N 89.0W 13.9N 89.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080530 0000 080531 0000 080601 0000 080602 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 88.0W 13.1N 87.2W 15.1N 87.6W 17.1N 89.0W
BAMD 12.6N 91.3W 14.2N 94.4W 15.1N 97.6W 15.1N 101.0W
BAMM 11.8N 90.2W 12.8N 91.6W 13.1N 93.0W 13.0N 94.4W
LBAR 16.3N 90.8W 20.4N 93.6W 22.0N 94.6W 22.2N 95.4W
SHIP 43KTS 50KTS 57KTS 63KTS
DSHP 43KTS 50KTS 57KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 88.7W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 90.0W DIRM12 = 109DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 91.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[RL3AO]

[MGC]

I would be surprised if 90E becomes a TD tomorrow. Conditions appear only marginal for a TC to form. Convection is limited to the south of the circulation center, there is some moderate shear to the north. In fact, it appears that an ULL is trying to close off over Guatamala this evening. If that is the case than forget it. I'd say there is only a 10% probility of development at this time......MGC

[CrazyC83]

I'd give this about a 30% chance of becoming a TD at any point in its lifetime.