Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Ptarmigan]

We could take the rain from that Caribbean system.

[gatorcane]

If Wxman is using the word "development" so many times in a post, that should raise some eyebrows albeit development chances are still not very high. Personally I'd give it about a 25% chance of development at this time.

Interestingly enough, the board usage has gone down since the weekend. I think many people have just decided to check back in later if anything happens or even some have completely stuck and fork in the Western Caribbean system.....

There is actually a "broad low" trying to form east of Nicaragua folks --- that warrants a high bear watch alert in my opinion....

[HURAKAN]

Re-issued:

[gatorcane]

thanks Hurakan, perfect!

[GeneratorPower]

I have learned over the years that is wiser to wait and see than to just guess. Does anyone remember how many people killed 90L/Humberto?!?!?!?

Oh yeah, coining the phrase "It got 90L'ed"

[Evil Jeremy]

If Wxman is using the word "development" so many times in a post, that should raise some eyebrows albeit development chances are still not very high. Personally I'd give it about a 25% chance of development at this time.

That is still pretty high seeing how we are in May!

[gatorcane]

Latest:

Looking awfully disturbed if you ask me. The EPAC low appears to be gradually organizing also.

[boca]

Latest:

Looking awfully disturbed if you ask me. The EPAC low appears to be gradually organizing also.

Yes I agree with you gatorcane,but not so fast buckaroo.Even though the area is organizing in the EPAC I mentioned in dixiebreeze's post about that tropical wave approaching the Leewards is the match which will ignite the area in the SW Caribbean sea and move north towards Florida.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101109

[Aric Dunn]

Latest:

Looking awfully disturbed if you ask me. The EPAC low appears to be gradually organizing also.

Yes I agree with you gatorcane,but not so fast buckaroo.Even though the area is organizing in the EPAC I mentioned in dixiebreeze's post about that tropical wave approaching the Leewards is the match which will ignite the area in the SW Caribbean sea and move north towards Florida.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101109

dont worry about the wave approaching the islands its too far away .. at least 48 or more hours .. there is a wave approaching the system now which will possibly do what you and the HPC has said..

[boca]

Aric, do you have the latest version of the HPC?

[Aric Dunn]

here is the 48 forecast from the tafb..
its te first wave that helps develop the sw carrib portion

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, do you have the latest version of the HPC?

cyclone eye posted the last one .. which is where read it hang on its a few pages back

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a interesting EPAC discussion from TPC about this complex situation:

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SEVERAL
CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA WITH THE MOST
PRONOUNCED SWIRL NEAR 09N89W...IN THE AREA WHERE OUR MARINE
PRODUCTS HAVE SUGGESTED A SURFACE LOW WOULD DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PERHAPS DRIFT
NE LATER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN DESCRIBED IN DETAIL ABOVE
IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHILE
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD
ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER GULF
OF HONDURAS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MAY ADD THE NEEDED
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO GET THIS SPINNING. NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT
S OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING A SW TO W 20 TO 25
KT WIND AND SEAS TO ABOUT 10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2149.shtml?

and then there is this

[Aric Dunn]

and then this from the 805 disscusion


TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W S OF 19N...FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED IN
THE VICINITY OF A LARGE INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST AND OTHER SHOWERS MOVING NW ACROSS HAITI AND
JAMAICA. THE WAVE POSITION AGREES WELL WITH EXTRAPOLATION AND
THE CIMSS 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY TRACKER. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND LEAD TO A NORTHWARD SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REST OF THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-80W.



also this from the same disscusion


CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD MONSOON GYRE LIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...MUCH
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE ITCZ
AXIS SITUATED N OF PANAMA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PANAMA
CITY...PUERTO LIMON...AND SAN ANDRES SUGGEST THAT A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N81W BUT THE
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION IS STILL MOSTLY DISORGANIZED. AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO BELIZE...WITH 50 KT W/SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAMING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N INTO PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN LIFTING
N INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 75W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND IS BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO THE NW...WHILE
PRODUCING SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA. FARTHER E...WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMS E
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 58W MOVES W.

[Aric Dunn]

any qustions???

[boca]

They said in the HPC that the vorticity would move NW thru Central America. Based upon climatology wouldn't the system once it gets to about 20n pull NE towards Florida? Their is supposed to be a trough exiting the SE coast in about 5 days.

[Aric Dunn]

They said in the HPC that the vorticity would move NW thru Central America. Based upon climatology wouldn't the system once it gets to about 20n pull NE towards Florida?

yeah climatology say thats what normally happens,,, but climatology does not effect the weather. its just a history report of sorts it all depends on what the synopics are and what is actually happening i.e troughs ( cold fronts) highs ( ridges) that sort of stuff ...

[gatorcane]

They said in the HPC that the vorticity would move NW thru Central America. Based upon climatology wouldn't the system once it gets to about 20n pull NE towards Florida?

yeah climatology say thats what normally happens,,, but climatology does not effect the weather. its just a history report of sorts it all depends on what the synopics are and what is actually happening i.e troughs ( cold fronts) highs ( ridges) that sort of stuff ...

Boca, yes based on climatology the Eastern GOM and peninsula FL (western half) have the highest probability of a strike in June. NOGAPS keeps wanting to bring something up to Southern Florida (or just SE of southern Florida)...GFS for a while had something turning NNE into the Eastern GOM, now it has backed off because it is responding to a developing Texas/GOM ridge that would span the GOM to the western Bahamas. It would not surprise me if the NNE track back into the Eastern GOM doesn't start showing up again, once it can initialize something in the SW caribbean. There are already hints of the Texas/GOM ridge breaking down early next week. Jeff Masters has mentioned this possible weakness in his blogs over the weekend. He discusses a Pacific NW system that will be diving SE into the central plains this week. All of this of course, depends on if something even gets going in the SW Caribbean at all.

[RL3AO]

Reuters is on it.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN2737729720080527