EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[Derek Ortt]

I'd say chances are fairly high that this will become a TC. May not become a strong one due to marginal upper air conditions; however, the surface conditions are quite favorable for TC genesis

[NDG]

Is hard to find any evidence of a SE wind, IMO.

[JonathanBelles]

The local met just spent about 15 seconds on 'what the NHC calls an Invest that may move this way next week'. No hype as of yet. Just said it will enhance rain chances.

[Sanibel]

I would say EPAC-centered. Would guess no formation, but see what it does tomorrow.

[JonathanBelles]

How long until CIMSS fixes the 90E page?

[cycloneye]

198
AXPZ20 KNHC 280334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7WW HAS BEEN MOVING W AN AN ESTIMATED 12
KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE INTO THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA...THE OVERALL
PATTERN SEEMS TO SUGGEST SLIGHT ORGANIZATION CENTERED ON ROUGHLY
09N89W. THIS IS WHERE OUR MARINE PRODUCTS HAVE SUGGESTED A
SURFACE LOW...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WOULD DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PERHAPS DRIFT
NE LATER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED BUT THEREAFTER SEVERAL CHANGES ARE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
OR CUT OFF FROM AN UPPER TROUGH...AND DRIFT S FRI WHILE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REPLACING THE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY DISSECTING THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD ALLOW A
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER GULF OF
HONDURAS. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE NW
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE
MAY ADD THE NEEDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO GET ALL OF THIS
SPINNING. NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT S OF THE E PAC LOW PRESSURE IS
ALREADY SUPPORTING A SW TO W 20 TO 25 KT WIND AND SEAS TO ABOUT
11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 52803.tdsc

[tailgater]

Looks like a low centered @ 9N 87W. It's just IR so I'm not real confident but take a look.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with you on were the "MLC" appears to be setting up; which is around 9.5 north/87 west. You can also see that the convection is starting to form over it over the last few frames, that is a sign of organizion of the system. The convection to the south is more or less outflow convection or Itcz formed; that is what you see below 9 north. This system has some outflow and looks like it may have a chance over the next 24 hours to slowly become more organized, but look at the upper level winds at 11-12 north. That is most likely around 20-25 knots and would do some damage to its chances. Also that means the system is most likely to move north or northeastward as the weakness that some models have been "hinting" at could very well pick this up like the some of the models have been hinting. What do I mean to that? I mean that models were trying to form it over the southwestern Caribbean, but this could very well be it. In which case the trough sucks it northeastward.

But that is something to watch...I would say if convection were to keep forming over the next 24-36 hours, a depression seems rather likely being what time in May it is.

[Thunder44]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280554
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST
OF COSTA RICA...AND IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL AMERICA FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Thunder44]

The 0z GFDL now develops this system to a TS in the EPAC, before making landfall in Nicaragua by 42hrs:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

As Derek said the upper conditions for this system aren't amazing and on the marginal side but it does have a decent circulation and conditions are IMO just good enough to get at least a tropical depression out of this. I'm not sure I buy the GFDL strength for this system mind you, I think about 50kts is a little on the high side.

[HURAKAN]

If this system develops, it could become the easternmost cyclone in the EPAC.

[HURAKAN]

28/0545 UTC 9.2N 87.0W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float7.html

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN
SUGGESTING THAT A SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME MORE IDENTIFIABLE IN
THE VICINITY OF 09N88W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM SE AND 210 NM SW QUADRANTS.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N80W TO 08N84W.

NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS ENE. THE LOW HAS ACQUIRED THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND IN ADDITION THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED BELOW MAY ADD THE NEEDED LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY TO FURTHER HELP SPIN UP THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART...TRY TO BRING THE LOW
OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT IN A GENERAL NLY TRACK ACROSS OR NEAR THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

OF NOTE...THE GRADIENT S OF THE E PAC LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING SW-W WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS
8-11 FT. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED WINDS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH DIRECTION FROM SW TO W WITHIN THE BROAD
LOW PRES AREA BETWEEN 81W-93W.

THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW THROUGH 48
HOURS WITH THE FOOTNOTE THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD IF LOW CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
MAIN THING TO CONSIDER FOR TIME BEING IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA
AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Its still heading eastwards despite what the statisitcal models are suggesting. I think a weak system in the Caribbean (maybe the wave axis heading?) is just helping to drag the system a little further east then what the synoptic pattern would suggest.

The fact this is happening raises questions for this systems future and chances of development. I think we will see a TD today. EVentually this may well find itself in the Caribbean or the BOC, in what state who knows but it may well provide the extra push to get something going in that mess down there.

[Thunder44]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281132
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF COSTA RICA.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. REGARDLESS OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[HURAKAN]

First time red is used. Red = High >50%