Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Aric Dunn]

Aric are you still observing a surface low east of Nicaragua? I think I am seeing some cyclonic spin just east of Nicaragua but I am not sure.

I agree though -- the UL SW winds are blowing the 90E cloud tops NE into the Caribbean....and the whole blob is gradually moving ENE into Central America. We could see a center reformation farther East....

its been hard to locate any discernible surface feature ... but there is a lot of curved cloud features extending from eastern Nicaragua to colombia. i really need some more visible images before i can say anything of the sorts .. there is still a lot of vorticity down there and like i said before everything is in such close proximity to each other i would not be surprised to see a solid low form or even more of 90E move to the carrib side causing a new low to form there where the upper environment is becoming a lot better

[Aric Dunn]

if you notice the vort map above .. the vorticity still extends across central america and where a final closed low forms is still fair game

[Evil Jeremy]

When does the next GFS run? Inst it in about an hour?

[RL3AO]

Should start in 30 minutes or so.

[x-y-no]

When does the next GFS run? Inst it in about an hour?

Pretty soon. Initialization usually posts around 15:30 utc, give or take a few.

[Evil Jeremy]

Initialization: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


sorry about the crudeness this is the best i could do without more visible images to work with,... we may have a small vorticity where the small red circle is ... another thing looking a the long loops the whole trough axis is tilting or rotating which is why i imagine 90E is moving easterly...and the other part in the carrib is moving nw ... or there are two surface low and we have some fujiwhara going on which also makes sense..

[Evil Jeremy]

Initialization: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000l.gif

18 Hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

Gradually moving eastward.

[gatorcane]

I have to say this is the most disturbed I have seen the Western Caribbean in a long time. I agree with cycloneye, I expect to see a special tropical disturbance statement on the Atlantic side, not because of expected development but because of life threatening rainfalls this activity could bring to the Western Caribbean islands and Central America.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like we have some organization taking place in the EPAC, but how that plays out for the western Carib. should be interesting to watch.

[Evil Jeremy]

Initialization: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000l.gif

18 Hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

Gradually moving eastward.

48 Hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[KWT]

Yep Aric there probably is some interaction between the two circluations which is helping to send 90E ENE rather then the northward direction synoptics would probably suggest.

Given this is the case if any circulation can emerge into thew Sw Caribbean after being overland for several days (doesn't have to be LLC, a MLC would be more then good enough I reckon.) then once again we are going to have to keep a very close eye on this system, esp for central parts of America of course.

[Aric Dunn]

big change in the gfs.. 90E is weaker and father west .. and the low in the carrib is not there although the signature of it is... and there is still a lot of energy.

[Evil Jeremy]

Initialization: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000l.gif

18 Hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

Gradually moving eastward.

48 Hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

72 Hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif

90 Hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090l.gif

It looks like the GFS showing a much weaker solution overall this run. Does anyone have the times for when the other models come in?

[gatorcane]

TAFB surface analysis has put the low back just east of Nicaragua. As far as the GFS, I think its confused at this point. I'm not sure how 90E can move so far west suddenly.

[KWT]

If the two lows keep getting closer then it wouldn't be too surprising if one of them tries to absorb the other one?

Certainly is interesting and I agree about the 12z GFS seems odd how it can get so far west in 90 odd hours given how far east it is and the fact that its heading ENE still. Probably isn't helped by the fact that we probably don't have a totally dominant center yet.

[Aric Dunn]

TAFB surface analysis has put the low back just east of Nicaragua. As far as the GFS, I think its confused at this point. I'm not sure how 90E can move so far west suddenly.

i guess that means i was not seeing things when i placed the low where i did .. in my horrible picture..

[Evil Jeremy]

The seemingly unrealistic GFS run continues. At 108 hours, the storm is still in the EPac, and it looks bigger than it should. It is directly below the BOC at this point.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_108l.gif


Doesn't seem any different at 120 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

there is clearly a low at these coordinates "Image centered at Latitude= 11.11° N Longitude= 82.46° W (X=263 Y=346)" so use this site http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html type in the coordinates.. animate it .

[Aric Dunn]

so do the loop above

which is centered here



it is very evident and close the the other center from 90E ..