Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[JonathanBelles]

Just what I am seeing. Red X=possible lows, green arrows=cloud/wind movement, purple line=push from one low to the other, blue arrow=antagonizing wind flow

Beginning to look like they are feeding each other.

[KWT]

Yeah I think its quite evident the two systems are interacting with each...its all getting more and more complicated though interestingly not too far away from what the GFS suggested a little while ago with the multiple centers within a broad area of lower pressure.

It will be really interesting to see what happens when both vorticies are over in the Atlantic side of the basin. The track of these two areas will be key in deciding which low becomes more dominant...if either of them do.

[HURAKAN]

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps
...eastpac low weakens..Caribbean low takes charge...which may be happening..

[KWT]

That run is interesting because it looks like the low is heading NNW at one point then the center appears to jolt of to the east to some degree and strengthen.

Hhat the GFs showed a few days may actually end up being pretty close in which a weak EPAC low forms, dies off as it gets close to land and the Sw caribbean low takes charge, move sinland over the Yucatan whilst trying to develop followed by what is probably now the EPAC system moving up from the south and finally becoming a tropical cyclone.

If that happens we are in for quite a long journey!

[Vortex]

Based on surface reports across Nicaragua its apparent there is an LLC over or just east of middle Nicaragua. Pressures have fallen some over the last 12 hours. Reports along the central and southern coast of Nicaragua have a westerly component and easterly across the North. This system is looking more interesting by the hour based on imagery and surface reports.

Bluefields, Nic

Bluefields, NK (Airport)
Updated: 41 min 45 sec ago
77 °F / 25 °C
Light Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 77 °F / 25 °C
Wind: 5 mph / 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the NNW
Pressure: 29.77 in / 1008 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 2.5 miles / 4.0 kilometers
UV: 9 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1700 ft / 518 m
Scattered Clouds 7000 ft / 2133 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft / 5 m

[cycloneye]

Managua,Nicaragua



The Capital of Nicaragua observations has been all day long with pressures fairly low.

[gatorcane]

Looks like 90E is about to come ashore Costa Rica...I see a definite NE movement, this should increase the chances of the Caribbean system developing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/loop-vis.html

[Vortex]

I'm favoring the carribean system based on trends all day...The trend is your friend

[cycloneye]

[Noles2006]

This is significantly diminishing my productivity here at work.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The Miami NWS pretty much has little chance of rain from any system for a week:

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

[Vortex]

Folks, this is getting increasingly interesting across the SW carribean. While very broad and maintaining a loose circulation presently the overall envelope is becoming better organized. If this tightens up overnight with a burst of deep convection and a more defined LLC becomes present East of Nicaragua as suggested by recent imagery and supported by the Nogaps then we may very well have something as early as tomorrow afternoon.

[KWT]

Its looking more and more interesting as the day has gone along, now we;ve got a band of convection working around what probably is the northern side of any low. If it keeps on developing like it appears to be then we could well see invest 90L from this in the next 24hrs.

If it can get back over water again near the Yucatan region then with the 90E heading inland now the competition between the two may start to favor the Caribbean system for the time being...however it will eventually head back inland I'd have thought by 72-96hrs time?

[gatorcane]

Folks, this is getting increasingly interesting across the SW carribean. While very broad and maintaining a loose circulation presently the overall envelope is becoming better organized. If this tightens up overnight with a burst of deep convection and a more defined LLC becomes present East of Nicaragua as suggested by recent imagery and supported by the Nogaps then we may very well have something as early as tomorrow afternoon.

Indeed the trend all day today is increasing organizations albeit slowly -- the NHC is going to want to see consitency and persistence first though before jumping to conclusions. 90E looks like it will be ashore in the next 12 hours or so and shouldn't reach TS status.

and....here is the weakness some of the models are seeing (like NOGAPS) mentioned by NWS Miami:

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTH ACROSS ERN U.S. GFS BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SOMETIME TUE EVENING WITH THE
WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING NORTHWARD

What could be setting up is a classic June tropical system in the Western Caribbean -- messy, not that strong and getting picked up by a trough shooting it NE in the long-run.

[cpdaman]

wow what early season excitement

looks like we have a "party over nicaragua tonite

Epac low looks much better to me now, however it is very close to land and probably over costa rica/ s. nicaragua by early AM which i imagine the mountains would start to take a toll on the LLC.

Nicaragua low looks to be headed inland over the southern misquito coast, should this low stay over the coastal lowlands i think it will become dominant.

Wether this thing moves over the NW caribean or sits over central america for a couple days will IMO determine it's fate IMO, my bet is too much land interaction and a flooding nightmare.

[HURAKAN]

I just watched a loop of the Caribbean and the low pressure near Nicaragua is becoming more impressive by the minute. I think as 90E interacts with land and loses in organization and intensity, the Caribbean system will intensify and maybe absorb 90E.

[Vortex]

Folks, this is getting increasingly interesting across the SW carribean. While very broad and maintaining a loose circulation presently the overall envelope is becoming better organized. If this tightens up overnight with a burst of deep convection and a more defined LLC becomes present East of Nicaragua as suggested by recent imagery and supported by the Nogaps then we may very well have something as early as tomorrow afternoon.

Indeed the trend all day today is increasing organizations albeit slowly -- the NHC is going to want to see consitency and persistence first though before jumping to conclusions. 90E looks like it will be ashore in the next 12 hours or so and shouldn't reach TS status.

and....here is the weakness some of the models are seeing (like NOGAPS) mentioned by NWS Miami:

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTH ACROSS ERN U.S. GFS BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SOMETIME TUE EVENING WITH THE
WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING NORTHWARD

What could be setting up is a classic June tropical system in the Western Caribbean -- messy, not that strong and getting picked up by a trough shooting it NE in the long-run.

Sounds like a very octoberish pattern from a synoptic stand point..potential for very heavy rains and flooding is increasing IMO for the keys and southern florida early next week.

[MGC]

Yep, they are interacting and the circulation over CA is being pulled to the west by 90E. 90E should be the dominate circulation. We shall see if it can make it into the Caribbean...MGC

[KWT]

Both low pressure systems appear to be heading inland now. As gatorcane said it is turning into a classic early June type set-up, very messy with multiple centers, a forecasters nightmare really!

I wonder whether 90E will eventually become the one to watch as the SWC LP system heads deeper inland, esp post 60-72hrs plus and whatever is left of 90E comes back into the SW Caribbean again.