EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

StormspinnerD2 · #161 Postby **StormspinnerD2** » Wed May 28, 2008 6:48 pm

I was not expecting one to begin with; the problem is that there are people here who see that 90E is near a narrow part of Central America, and think it must cross over there...even if the system is not moving in that direction (not even close).

Category 5 · #162 Postby **Category 5** » Wed May 28, 2008 6:50 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Dont count on a cross over, this one is almost certain to be hung up in the mountains

I had my doubts on a crossover from the get-go, and I'm starting to get more and more confident in that solution.

It's not going to cross over and form IMO. Even if it follows the LBAR (ROFL!) The BOC is dry.

#163 Postby **MGC** » Wed May 28, 2008 7:20 pm

Highly doubtful the LL circulation survives the mountains. However, the remnants might redevelope in a few days if it can reach the BOC or GOM. 90E has become much better organized this afternoon and it appears likely that a TD has formed. NHC should upgrade later this evening provided convection remains strong and near the circulation center. Has a shot at becoming a moderate TS tomorrow before moving inland......MGC

Category 5 · #164 Postby **Category 5** » Wed May 28, 2008 7:26 pm

It definately has a solid chance, but it better do it fast. If it can flare up around the center then it's almost certain they'll upgrade it.

#165 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 28, 2008 7:30 pm

28/2345 UTC 10.3N 86.5W T2.0/2.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

#166 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 28, 2008 7:33 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 290030
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902008) 20080529 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080529 0000 080529 1200 080530 0000 080530 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 86.5W 11.6N 86.7W 13.1N 87.5W 14.5N 88.6W
BAMD 10.0N 86.5W 11.8N 86.9W 13.6N 88.1W 15.1N 89.6W
BAMM 10.0N 86.5W 11.7N 86.7W 13.6N 87.7W 15.2N 89.0W
LBAR 10.0N 86.5W 11.4N 87.0W 13.5N 88.1W 15.6N 89.4W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080531 0000 080601 0000 080602 0000 080603 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 89.9W 16.6N 92.9W 16.2N 95.8W 15.6N 98.3W
BAMD 16.1N 91.2W 16.7N 94.2W 16.2N 97.9W 16.2N 103.0W
BAMM 16.3N 90.5W 17.2N 93.7W 16.8N 97.7W 16.3N 103.0W
LBAR 17.3N 90.8W 19.1N 92.6W 19.8N 94.6W 20.5N 97.7W
SHIP 57KTS 63KTS 65KTS 70KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 74DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 88.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 125NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
1003 mbs.

Chacor · #167 Postby **Chacor** » Wed May 28, 2008 7:36 pm

Still no upgrade, but I think it's getting to the point where it's now-or-never.

#168 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed May 28, 2008 7:47 pm

Sounds like a 3z upgrade then.

#169 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:06 pm

Pretty soon.

Chacor · #170 Postby **Chacor** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:07 pm

File: invest_RENUMBER_ep902008_ep012008.ren 2 KB 5/29/08 1:01:00 AM

01E.

Chacor · #171 Postby **Chacor** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:09 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 290105
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0105 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP012008) 20080529 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080529 0000 080529 1200 080530 0000 080530 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 86.5W 11.6N 86.7W 13.1N 87.5W 14.5N 88.6W
BAMD 10.0N 86.5W 11.8N 86.9W 13.6N 88.1W 15.1N 89.6W
BAMM 10.0N 86.5W 11.7N 86.7W 13.6N 87.7W 15.2N 89.0W
LBAR 10.0N 86.5W 11.4N 87.0W 13.5N 88.1W 15.6N 89.4W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080531 0000 080601 0000 080602 0000 080603 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 89.9W 16.6N 92.9W 16.2N 95.8W 15.6N 98.3W
BAMD 16.1N 91.2W 16.7N 94.2W 16.2N 97.9W 16.2N 103.0W
BAMM 16.3N 90.5W 17.2N 93.7W 16.8N 97.7W 16.3N 103.0W
LBAR 17.3N 90.8W 19.1N 92.6W 19.8N 94.6W 20.5N 97.7W
SHIP 60KTS 65KTS 66KTS 71KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 74DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 88.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 125NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

#172 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:11 pm

NONAME at NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

#173 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:11 pm

There we go. Advisory will be out at around 10:45 EDT.

#174 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:13 pm

01E.NONAME

Chacor · #175 Postby **Chacor** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:14 pm

Cyclone1 · #176 Postby **Cyclone1** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:43 pm

So, is this the furthest east non-atlantic crossover tropical depression in EPAC history?

#177 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:45 pm

I'm guessing we will have TS Warnings with the first advisory?

#178 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:49 pm

RL3AO wrote:I'm guessing we will have TS Warnings with the first advisory?

I was guessing there would be a watch, but I suppose a warning is possible.

Derek Ortt · #179 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:51 pm

I dont see either a watch or a warning

no need, it is 25KT!

#180 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed May 28, 2008 8:51 pm

Ah. I thought it was 30kt. Nevermind then.

EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

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