Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

[senorpepr]

We have a supercell developement here in germany - and the storm machine refuses to print soundings for germany. Can anyone suggest an alternative ?

Are you looking for observed or forecast soundings?

Bellevue, NE? Where is that. And do you have a second older car you can take out for a drive with a digital camera/video camera this afternoon while the nicer, primary car stays safe in the garage?



AccuWx, I think, has GFS forecast soundings for anywhere in the world, entered as latitude and longitude, but it isn't free. Pretty sure the North American Mesoscale does a poor job generating soundings for Deutschland.

Bellevue, NE is a southern suburn of Omaha--where Offutt AFB is at. I'm not sure if I'll go out. My wife had surgery this morning and I'm taking care of her, but as it looks, I may not have to go too far for some action.



For some observed soundings, Univ. of Wyoming has a nice site: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html


I'm not sure about forecast soundings, though. I can build on from AFWA's IGrADS program, but you'll need to pass along the location and timeframe...

[Bunkertor]

We have a supercell developement here in germany - and the storm machine refuses to print soundings for germany. Can anyone suggest an alternative ?

Are you looking for observed or forecast soundings?

I´d take both. But observed ones hve priority.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Chicagoland is in a MODERATE RISK area tomorrow...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 291716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF SE
IOWA...NE/E CNTRL MO...SRN WI...MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL IL...AND WRN
IND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE S CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION....

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL LATER TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL JET...WHICH HAS EMANATED FROM
THE PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE NATION. MODELS INDICATE
THAT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES
WILL TRANSITION TO LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ON FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT...CONSOLIDATING TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE LATTER FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO MAINTAIN A MORE OR LESS EASTWARD MOTION INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF RIDGING BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WITHIN A SIGNIFICANT BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.

...MID MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF A WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
...ANTICIPATED TO COMMENCE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...AN INITIALLY
COOL/DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING
WEAKENING/RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS A
SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD. AND...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE
THAT AT LEAST THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS PROBABLY
WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED BOUNDARY SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRLY
DEEP FRONTAL WAVE PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN
BY 31/03Z.

MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TO THE
SOUTH/WEST OF THE POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW...ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN/
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 50-70 KT 500 MB FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY FROM
SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE 50+
KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET CORE MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THAT TIME...LOW- LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIZABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADIC POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN THE MORE
DISCRETE EARLY STORMS...BEFORE PROBABLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ANOTHER
LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OCCURS...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG.

HAIL...SOME QUITE LARGE...IS ALSO LIKELY IN MOST STORMS. AND...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME A PROMINENT THREAT IN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS.

IF IT TURNS OUT LOWER MICHIGAN IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY
EARLY DAY CONVECTION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST
ACROSS THIS REGION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARKS...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. BUT...A STRENGTHENING ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ACROSS
THIS REGION TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT/TRAINING CONVECTION.

..KERR.. 05/29/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1746Z (1:46PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

NE presser obviously either cancelled or finished and they are in digitalizing it.

[snoopj]

I don't think most of those are live to the public. So, we'll probably get a digital version of it when it's done.

[Bunkertor]

I don't think most of those are live to the public. So, we'll probably get a digital version of it when it's done.

It should take place now...but they erased the link.

[KWT]

MCD - 29/1915Z
ACUS11 KWNS 291810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291810
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-291915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...ERN NM...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291810Z - 291915Z

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED/DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NM.
THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY WHERE CU FIELD IS
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE THE
SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT APPEARS DEEP CONVECTION WILL
SOON DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN CO INTO ERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ENEWD TOWARD WRN KS AND THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE
THAN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..DARROW.. 05/29/2008

[Ed Mahmoud]

Western Nebraska and small parts adjacent KS and CO - 1st Tornado Watch of the Day

[CrazyC83]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AKRON
COLORADO TO 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHADRON NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS WATCH AREA AS LITTLE REMAINING CINH. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WINDS
BUT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES

[KWT]

Well here we go again yet another busy day is coming up, going to add another load of tornadoes to the already exceptionally busy first half of the year.

[CrazyC83]

First PDS watch likely coming:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL NEB...NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291844Z - 291945Z

A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STORMS INITIATE AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO APPEAR LIKELY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISSUANCE LIKELY BY 20Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW OVER ERN CO WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CUMULUS IS FORMING OVER ERN CO AND THE CUMULUS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SW
NEB AND NW KS WITH STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR ON REGIONAL PROFILERS ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST EAST OF
THE MCD AREA SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL
AND SRN NEB.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2008


ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

42380028 41950109 40840113 39710111 39220056 39639906
41999947

[RL3AO]

[CrazyC83]

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO
PART OF WESTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF GOODLAND KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE. 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO
2000 J/KG SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. HIGH BASES SUGGEST
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES

[KWT]

Severe Thunderstorm warning out, should start to see more and more warnings and maybe tornado warnings soon enough!

000
WUUS53 KGLD 291919
SVRGLD
KSC023-153-NEC057-087-292015-
/O.NEW.KGLD.SV.W.0115.080529T1919Z-080529T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
EASTERN DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT/215 PM MDT/

* AT 214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH
OF BENKELMAN...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF BIRD CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
32 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BENKELMAN AROUND 135 PM MDT...
MAX AROUND 150 PM MDT...
STRATTON NE AROUND 305 PM CDT...
TRENTON AROUND 315 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 68.

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR
NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY
EVENING/800 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING/ FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING/800 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING/ FOR EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 4034 10143 4034 10089 4012 10089 3978 10150
3988 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 223DEG 27KT 3989 10155

$$

JRM

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
WYC017-291945-
/O.NEW.KRIW.TO.W.0003.080529T1916Z-080529T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
116 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOT SPRINGS COUNTY IN CENTRAL WYOMING...

* UNTIL 145 PM MDT

* AT 113 PM MDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION NEAR LUCERNE...OR ABOUT
8 MILES NORTH OF THERMOPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT 24 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LUCERNE BY 125 PM MDT...

MOVE INTO A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4380 10803 4368 10804 4367 10835 4384 10838
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 266DEG 20KT 4376 10823

$$

ROSS

[CrazyC83]

Supercells rapidly firing in western KS/NE.

[CrazyC83]

New watch in central KS/NE. Should be PDS.

[RL3AO]

From nothing on radar to severe supercell in 20 minutes.

[RL3AO]

Should be a PDS coming.