Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

[snoopj]

From nothing on radar to severe supercell in 20 minutes.

The true definition of a volitale environment.

[KWT]

Yep thats explosive development for you isn't it!
Also yep should see a PDS with that crazy.

[CrazyC83]

No surprise it is a PDS:

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...WW 385...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS WATCH
AREA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. STRONG SHEAR AND MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG
SUPPORT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL. POTENTIAL
FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (70%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (60%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (>95%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (80%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

[RL3AO]

Heres that supercell.

[Bunkertor]

Gerald Ford was from WY

[CrazyC83]

30 minutes ago just clouds, now golf ball size hail:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSC023-153-NEC057-087-292015-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-080529T2015Z/
RAWLINS KS-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
232 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM
CDT/215 PM MDT/ FOR HITCHCOCK...EASTERN DUNDY...NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE
AND NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTIES...

AT 228 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF BENKELMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.
ANOTHER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF STRATTON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MAX AROUND 150 PM MDT...
STRATTON NE AROUND 305 PM CDT...
TRENTON AROUND 315 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 68.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY
EVENING/800 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING/ FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING/900 PM MDT THURSDAY
EVENING/ FOR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4034 10143 4034 10089 4012 10089 3978 10150
3988 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 223DEG 27KT 3996 10146

$$

JRM

[RL3AO]

Another cell to the south.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
EASTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM MDT/330 PM CDT/

* AT 138 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTH
OF SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 39 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SHARON SPRINGS AROUND 150 PM MDT...
WALLACE AROUND 200 PM MDT...

[Bunkertor]

double post edit

[CrazyC83]

Main threat from the western cells is hail.

[RL3AO]

I'm watching the cell in Wallace, KS. Might be trying to rotate.

[KWT]

I'm watching the cell south of Goodland at the moment there are real hints of circulations occuring at the moment.

[brunota2003]

2000Z update is out. Increased the wind side to 60%!!!

[RL3AO]

Wow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Gerald Ford was from WY

I thought it was Grand Rapids, MI.


Edit: Deleted recollection on personal history of VP from Wyoming as relates possible ETOH related arrest.

[Bunkertor]

Think, next watchbox for Iowa

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FRONTIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 305 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RED WILLOW
RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF CURTIS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STOCKVILLE BY 325 PM CDT...

[KWT]

Yep that 60% hatched area is very impressive, isn't that the highest they can go as well?

[Bunkertor]

Anyone an idea where to find the press conference from Omaha NE ?

[RL3AO]

BTW, 60H wind = high risk as well.