EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[KWT]

Yeah if you were to look at that image the first figure that would pop into my mind anyway would be 65kts, hurricane Alma...alas that wasn't the case but it did look very impressive at that point I have to admit.

Track according to NHC keeps any remains to the south of the GOH so probably very little risk of it reforming unless it goes way east of the offical forecast.

[Thunder44]

I'm not convinced this storm didn't reach hurricane strength. The NHC was too slow in upgrading the intensity for this storm this morning. Satellite images showed that is was forming an eye from early this morning, with very cold cloud tops around it. Yet they waited until around noon time to upgraded to a stronger TS. Also the the lack any obs and recon in the area wasn't any help either.

[tailgater]

No Hurricane.

WHXX01 KMIA 291820
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALMA (EP012008) 20080529 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080529 1800 080530 0600 080530 1800 080531 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 86.9W 13.6N 87.3W 14.9N 87.8W 16.0N 88.5W
BAMD 12.0N 86.9W 13.6N 87.7W 14.9N 88.8W 15.6N 89.7W
BAMM 12.0N 86.9W 13.8N 87.3W 15.2N 87.9W 16.2N 88.7W
LBAR 12.0N 86.9W 13.6N 87.6W 15.5N 88.8W 17.1N 90.1W
SHIP 55KTS 74KTS 87KTS 96KTS
DSHP 55KTS 40KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080531 1800 080601 1800 080602 1800 080603 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 89.5W 17.8N 91.5W 17.1N 93.8W 15.9N 95.6W
BAMD 15.8N 90.4W 15.3N 91.6W 15.2N 93.2W 15.2N 95.2W
BAMM 16.9N 89.4W 17.0N 91.0W 16.4N 93.7W 15.4N 96.6W
LBAR 18.2N 91.2W 19.3N 93.2W 19.7N 95.1W 20.3N 97.4W
SHIP 98KTS 98KTS 94KTS 90KTS
DSHP 27KTS 26KTS 21KTS 18KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 86.9W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 86.7W DIRM12 = 346DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 86.6W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$

Ships must not see Central America(90KT), probably all that cammo down there.
Seriously though I hope it doesn't stall in that area too long. Flooding is the number 1 killer.

[KWT]

Yep as we've seen time and time again sadly flooding rains really can be massivly deadily. BTW SHIPS doesn't factor in land interaction whilst DSHIPS does.

[cycloneye]

Derek,you think that when the post analysis comes,they may upgrade it to a hurricane?

[Derek Ortt]

no, there is no evidence that I have seen today that warrants an upgrade

[cycloneye]

Ok thank you.

[CycloneNL]

huh ?
Is Alma now going to start back to the sea?

[Cyclenall]

no, there is no evidence that I have seen today that warrants an upgrade

Was the eye not clear enough or round, what?

[brunota2003]

no, there is no evidence that I have seen today that warrants an upgrade

Was the eye not clear enough or round, what?

Tropical Storms can have eyes. There have been no wind reports or satellite measurements that suggest an upgrade is appropriate. All T Numbers have been 3.5 at max (that I've seen).

[wxman57]

Ships must not see Central America(90KT), probably all that cammo down there.
Seriously though I hope it doesn't stall in that area too long. Flooding is the number 1 killer.

Correct, SHIPS does not take into account any movement over land. DSHP does take into account land interaction.

[srainhoutx]

Ships must not see Central America(90KT), probably all that cammo down there.
Seriously though I hope it doesn't stall in that area too long. Flooding is the number 1 killer.

Correct, SHIPS does not take into account any movement over land. DSHP does take into account land interaction.

Thanks wxman.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 292345
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
500 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...ALMA WEAKENING BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM AS ITS CENTER NEARS
HONDURAS...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM JACO COSTA RICA NORTHWESTWARD INCLUDING
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF ALMA WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER
EXTREME WESTERN NICARAGUA...CLOSE TO THE HONDURAS BORDER...NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...NORTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...SOUTH OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF ALMA WILL BE MOVING OVER WESTERN HONDURAS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY...AND THE CENTER OF ALMA OR ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION COULD
REACH GUATEMALA OR BELIZE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY OVER WATER TO SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...12.9 N...87.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[tailgater]

Ships must not see Central America(90KT), probably all that cammo down there.
Seriously though I hope it doesn't stall in that area too long. Flooding is the number 1 killer.

Correct, SHIPS does not take into account any movement over land. DSHP does take into account land interaction.

Yeah I remember now, back when I was in the USN aboard the Kennedy , I didn't think their was any land either.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM ALMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
500 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...ALMA WEAKENING BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM AS ITS CENTER NEARS
HONDURAS...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM JACO COSTA RICA NORTHWESTWARD INCLUDING
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF ALMA WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER
EXTREME WESTERN NICARAGUA...CLOSE TO THE HONDURAS BORDER...NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...NORTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...SOUTH OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF ALMA WILL BE MOVING OVER WESTERN HONDURAS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY...AND THE CENTER OF ALMA OR ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION COULD
REACH GUATEMALA OR BELIZE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY OVER WATER TO SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...12.9 N...87.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE
____________________

I continue being sick. Just had a 39°C/102.2°F fever a few hours ago.

[pojo]

reason for no recon.... it would take at least 18 hours to get a crew out to the storm.... case in point, made landfall already. Can't dispatch a crew if storm is within 30nm of land and quickly approaching land.

[Cyclone1]

reason for no recon.... it would take at least 18 hours to get a crew out to the storm.... case in point, made landfall already. Can't dispatch a crew if storm is within 30nm of land and quickly approaching land.

Understandable. Doesn't seem to be any point, it's only going to weaken.

[Derek Ortt]

no, there is no evidence that I have seen today that warrants an upgrade

Was the eye not clear enough or round, what?

show me something quantative that proves this was a hurricane. Nothing handwaiving

The eyewall was not closed and the band did not wrap far enough around the eye. That is why the Dvorak numbers were below hurricane intensity

[Thunder44]

reason for no recon.... it would take at least 18 hours to get a crew out to the storm.... case in point, made landfall already. Can't dispatch a crew if storm is within 30nm of land and quickly approaching land.

I understand why we have no recon here. But it doesn't change that it's not there to verify intensity.

[pojo]

reason for no recon.... it would take at least 18 hours to get a crew out to the storm.... case in point, made landfall already. Can't dispatch a crew if storm is within 30nm of land and quickly approaching land.

I understand why we have no recon here. But it doesn't change that it's not there to verify intensity.

we can't verify intensity if landfall is going to occur within 12-18 hours and we weren't tasked to fly..

if we were tasked to fly.... if we were following the storm, then yes we could.