Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[TampaFl]

From NWS Tampa Thursday afternoon AFD:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 291731
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2008

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS FOR LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALL MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES EACH DAY. THE GFS THEN
DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIFTS IT
NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF FOR THURSDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND DGEX
BOTH KEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST GULF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. KEEPING WITH THE
ECMWF...WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 90S EACH DAY...EXCEPT COOLER WITH THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST...AND FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH NIGHT.

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JC

[vaffie]

Commentary from a couple of local National Weather Service offices about next week.


Houston
THIS RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOWLY WSWWD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING LOWERING PRESSURES DOWN
IN THE BAY O`CAMPECHE NEXT WEEK. BUT AS THIS IS STILL WELL OUT IN
TO THE FUTURE...CONCERN WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM (FOR NOW).

Corpus Christi
.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MEANING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN. THE RIDGE DOES SLOWLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS
TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION.


Brownsville
LOOKING FARTHER OUT IN TIME...AFTER THIS WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE EAST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE SLIPS SLOWLY WEST
TOWARD NORTHWEST MEXICO...OPENING UP MUCH OF THE GULF TO TROPICAL
ACTIVITY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
ACTIVITY OUT OF THE WEST GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER. SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MENTION OF POTENTIAL
MOISTURE FROM ALMA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE H5 RIDGE THAT SHIFTED TO OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN H5 S/W TROUGH WILL DIG
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PICK UP A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE NEW...DEEPER H5 S/W TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PRESENT MODEL CYCLE
NEXT WEEKEND.

[Derek Ortt]

chances of development in the Carib this week are looking quite slim. Very high shear thanks to Alma should prevent anything from organizing

[jaxfladude]

So when will this thread be locked???



Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development
Started by: Vortex Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:14 am
Replies: 1283
Views: 25118
Latest post: Thu May 29, 2008 6:59 pm
jaxfladude

[tailgater]

I think it'll live on for the next 48hrs. at least. The GOH will need to watched for the next 36hrs then the BOC.
Tis the time of close in development

[jaxfladude]

I think it'll live on for the next 48hrs. at least. The GOH will need to watched for the next 36hrs then the BOC.
Tis the time of close in development

If not then, we will have to pay for E_Carbon Footprints....

[tolakram]

Is Alma's landfall enhancing convection in the Caribbean? Looking at the IR you can see how convection is enhanced as Alma dies.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[cpdaman]

chances of development in the Carib this week are looking quite slim. Very high shear thanks to Alma should prevent anything from organizing

so your saying there's a chance!

[george_r_1961]

Chances are slim to none in the carribean now. Tropical cyclones are killed by shear yet even the decaying ones create shear in their surroundings.

A tropical cyclone in the EPAC, especially close to Central America, pretty much kills the chances of anything forming in the western carribean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

So when will this thread be locked???



Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development
Started by: Vortex Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:14 am
Replies: 1283
Views: 25118
Latest post: Thu May 29, 2008 6:59 pm
jaxfladude

July 27th.

[NDG]

chances of development in the Carib this week are looking quite slim. Very high shear thanks to Alma should prevent anything from organizing

Execpt for the Gulf of Honduras, IMO. Shear is actually on the decrease there, both GFS & Euro are making it favorable for at least the next 48 hrs, not slim but maybe a small chance.

[Tampa_God]

I don't know if it was just me, but when Alma was miles from landfall, it looked like the storm was trying to develop it's low more north, anyone else see that, or was mind playing games with me again?

[jlauderdal]

So when will this thread be locked???



Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development
Started by: Vortex Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:14 am
Replies: 1283
Views: 25118
Latest post: Thu May 29, 2008 6:59 pm
jaxfladude

One of the following conditions must be met:

1. there are no clouds in the Caribbean
2. Dec. 1 when hurricane season is officially over
3. the thread reaches 1000 pages

[deltadog03]

That mass of clouds/TS is really looking pretty good! There is nice upper level div. so....we shall see.

[cpdaman]

in 48 hours should nothing materialize is my guess, patience pills people ......take them.

also are the models correct in showing low shear over the gulf of honduras or is that false

b/c i know models are weak in forecasting shear, and we gots lots of convection there.

[boca]

I wonder if any of the cloud debris will make it to Florida can't buy a drop of rain.

[Dean4Storms]

This area of concern has yet to completely play out, I give it another 4-5 days before I'd right it off from anything possibly springing up from the remnants of Alma, alot of convection still firing off.

[NDG]

Anticyclone circulation center on top of Alma continues to move towards the Gulf of Honduras tonight, so another sign that the area will be free of windshear for the next couple of days.

[cpdaman]

I wonder if any of the cloud debris will make it to Florida can't buy a drop of rain.

i'm in boca as well, we have had tons of rain in the last week! Even today nice morning downpours, in fact s. boca and deerfiled are about to get some more decent showers within the hour.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the latest track on Alma plays out, then technically we will have a caribbean depression on our hands sometime tomorrow..



It is going to be pretty weird to see that happen! A Pacific named storm wandering the Atlantic (and retaining its Pacific name) will definitely be an interesting first.