Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Chacor]

Not exactly. It'll be a remnant low.

[vaffie]

It appears that the latest 00Z run of the GFS model has Alma disappear into Mexico via the Bay of Campeche while the eastern part of it / tropical wave consolidates in the Bay of Campeche by next Friday and then moves slowly north-northeast in the general direction of New Orleans over the course of the next three days. Something to watch, for sure, especially considering how good the GFS was in predicting Alma so long ago--it might not have been right on the timing, but it was right on the general location, the general movement, and the conducive conditions. The whole Gulf Coast should be watching this, as the range of error is huge after 5 days.

120 hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

180 hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

228 hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

252 hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

276 hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

[Meso]

[Thunder44]

This is a commet in from NHC in Alma's disscussion this morning on the low that models are developing in the NW Carribean today:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NEXT 12-24
HR. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ALMA OR ITS REMNANTS...BUT IT ALSO COULD
BE A SECOND LOW FORMING IN THE BROAD MONSOON FLOW OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.

[KWT]

Its all very interesting to watch what will happen with Alma and its remains over the next 48hrs, there is going to be a lot of eneregy left over and if any of it splits then we could well see some development from that area, esp given the disturbed weather already in the region thanks to the upcoming tropical wave.

As I said before its a nightmare for forecasts to predict what will happen, even harder now Alma is getting involved as well possibly.

[Meso]

The 06z GFS seems to do the same as the GFDL

[KWT]

I'm also getting pretty interested in that large area of convection presently to the SW of Cuba, esp now that Alma is starting to weaken overland. Of course the complication is whether Alma will get back over water for any time period, esp over the BOC in about 48-60hrs, or whether a part of its energy splits and gets into the GOH.

All very complicated it has to be said!

[Thunder44]

I'm also getting pretty interested in that large area of convection presently to the SW of Cuba, esp now that Alma is starting to weaken overland. Of course the complication is whether Alma will get back over water for any time period, esp over the BOC in about 48-60hrs, or whether a part of its energy splits and gets into the GOH.

All very complicated it has to be said!

I'm watching those storms SW of Cuba. So far, nothing appears to be organizing at the surface. The buoys out there are currently reporting E to SE winds.

[TampaFl]

NWS Tampa Friday morning AFD :

000
FXUS62 KTBW 300635
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
235 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL RESOLUTION OF
TROPICAL STORM ALMA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. GFS WAS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION EARLIER KEEPING SOME KIND OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND RACING TO THE EASTERN GULF BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS RUN HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IT
ACTUALLY LOOKS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND THE REST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH BASICALLY WEAKENS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES THE
CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA LANDMASS. WIND FIELDS IN GFS FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM ARE NOW BASICALLY
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH MAYBE HIGHER SPEED VALUES THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES. AT THIS TIME IS TOO EARLY TO LEAN CONFIDENTLY
INTO ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE CLEAR TENDENCY IN ALL
GUIDANCE IN KEEPING SOME KIND OF RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL
CAP WINDS AT 15 KNOTS AND WAIT FOR LATER GUIDANCE BEFORE PERFORMING
ADDITIONAL CHANGES. ONE ASPECT THAT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS OF ALMA`S CIRCULATION OF ADVECTING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH BRISK AND DEEP EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IT WILL BE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH THEN WILL
PROVIDE FUEL FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO SPARK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 20 POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THEN INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES.

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...NP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AR

[Thunder44]

I do see a naked swirl in the Gulf of Honduras, but it appears to be moving quickly westward. It would inland in few hours or so:

Belize City is also reported a NW wind at 9mph at 5am:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

[KWT]

It could just be that the storms near SW Cuba are being enhanced by shear but who knows they need to be watched just in case it does start to develop some sort of circulation.
Also needs to be watched in case an area of energy splits off from Alma and heads into the Caribbean like a few models have progged.
Thunder, interesting could well be a little vortex working its way around the broader circulation of Alma, will have to watch out for these little circulations that could brew up because eventually one will do something.

[tailgater]

Looking IR sat loops this morning I don't there is much, if anything left of Ama(no crossover), But a Very broad circulation over the GOH and Honduras. The north and east section getting enhanced by shear. Probably a slow developer if at all, but I wouldn't think it'll go away any time soon.

[Chacor]

Any circulation currently over Honduras would actually be Alma, I think.

[boca]

I wonder if that thunderstorm complex is being enhanced by shear caused by the remnants of Alma and will be gone by tonight or is something else developing.

[Thunder44]

I suspect that Alma's LLC has reformed further north in the Gulf of Honduras. But I'm waiting on more visibles and obs to come in over Honduras to really confirm that.

[Chacor]

Re. Honduras circulation:

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR INLAND
OVER HONDURAS ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTHWEST OF TEGUCIGALPA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALMA OR ITS
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER WESTERN HONDURAS TODAY AND
COULD REACH GUATEMALA OR BELIZE LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

[Thunder44]

Re. Honduras circulation:

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR INLAND
OVER HONDURAS ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTHWEST OF TEGUCIGALPA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALMA OR ITS
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER WESTERN HONDURAS TODAY AND
COULD REACH GUATEMALA OR BELIZE LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

I think they are only keeping up with the center still over Honduras for continuity purposes. There may be some relocation of center in the next full advisory.

[boca]

Melbourne's NWS still thinks theirs a shot at some beneificial rains possibly by the end of next week.

AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THU AND WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE IS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BEGIN LIFTING QUASI STATIONARY TROPICAL LOW OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THESE EARLY SEASON SYSTEMS CAN MEANDER OVER THE TROPICAL
LATITUDES FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME BEFORE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION

[tailgater]

Any circulation currently over Honduras would actually be Alma, I think.

I think it has more to do with this trough that has been there the last day or two. But i'm guessing at this point without vis loops and surface obs. A Garp from 57 later today maybe.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_00Z.gif

[KWT]

I haven't seen any loops of Alma so I couldn't say whether the center has reformed further north, to me when I was looking at IR it looked like the orginal circulation of Alma was still the dominant one.