South Florida May Rainfall Watch (Lushine Dry May Theory)

[gatorcane]

Latest rainfall totals still show the major south Florida terminals are several inches below normal for rainfall this month albeit *alot* of rainfall fell over all of south florida the past few days. Now that the backdoor front has moved through, rainfall chances have dropped off significantly for the next several days.

It does appear 2008 is going to be a year where we are below the 5 inch May rainfall total proposed by Lushine.

Miami:
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.07
MONTH TO DATE 1.51
SINCE NOV 1 17.34
SINCE JAN 1 15.89

Ft. Lauderdale:
TODAY 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 2.11
SINCE NOV 1 22.31
SINCE JAN 1 17.65

West Palm Beach
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 2.26
SINCE NOV 1 24.16
SINCE JAN 1 21.01

[Blown Away]

SFL is just under 1.5" for the month, and that's after all the rain we got over the past 3 days. Appears there will be less chance for rain over the next 4 days. Unless SFL gets significant rain the last 2-3 days of the month, the 2008 SFL May will be very dry. In Hobe Sound and I would swear the "Wet Season" has begun based on the past 3 days of heavy rain. The NWS Miami calls for another front to move through this week. I'm very curious when the NWS will say the "Wet Season" has begun?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

[Sanibel]

A hot season cool front has blown in from the north on the bottom end of an Omega block pattern. Dry air lessens rain chances.

[Blown Away]

After all that rain SFL had over the weekend, we are still way below May normal rainfall. Rain chances for the rest of May are modest, so it seems May totals will be less than 2", the average is around 5.5".

[gatorcane]

Blown_away indeed we look to be headed below normal for May.

[Blown Away]

Blown_away indeed we look to be headed below normal for May.

I'm also interested when the NWS will declare the official start of the SFL "Wet Season". My understanding is the NWS primarily looks for 3 consecutive 70 degree-plus dewpoint days with summer-time pattern of precip developing over the peninsula during the daytime hours to determine the start of the rainy season. Essentially, the rains of late last week and over the weekend which also came with the required dewpoints met the criteria for the wet season to begin. Now we're in a dry trend after the frontal passage. The NWS will either have to go with a "Wet Season" start date around the 22nd or 29th. Is this significant, maybe or maybe not, but if you combine a very dry SFL May with a late start to the SFL "Wet Season" that combo has produced some significant SFL hurricanes. At a minimum it will be interesting to follow, at least for me.

[gatorcane]

Blown_away indeed we look to be headed below normal for May.

I'm also interested when the NWS will declare the official start of the SFL "Wet Season". My understanding is the NWS primarily looks for 3 consecutive 70 degree-plus dewpoint days with summer-time pattern of precip developing over the peninsula during the daytime hours to determine the start of the rainy season. Essentially, the rains of late last week and over the weekend which also came with the required dewpoints met the criteria for the wet season to begin. Now we're in a dry trend after the frontal passage. The NWS will either have to go with a "Wet Season" start date around the 22nd or 29th. Is this significant, maybe or maybe not, but if you combine a very dry SFL May with a late start to the SFL "Wet Season" that combo has produced some significant SFL hurricanes. At a minimum it will be interesting to follow, at least for me.

NWS miami in a discussion last week mentioned the wet season won't officially begin until sometime this week albeit we saw a preview of the rainy season from Thurs-Sat of last week. Given the deep ESE windflow that is already developing across SE Florida with an expected increase of pops to the 40-50% range by Thurs (mostly for interior and west coast areas), I would expect an announcement of the rainy season in either tomorrow's forecast (or more likely Thurs. discussion)

[Canelaw99]

All I know is that Mother Nature has some making up to do in order for us to be around our average rainfall. Goodness knows we need some rain down here!

[Sanibel]

Had 10 minute rain from east. True rain season pattern. Vegetation was very dry.

[gatorcane]

Without Alma's remnants which are likely not to make it in time if at all, it is looking like May 2008 will be much below normal rainfall for Southern Florida. We will wait for the official rainfall totals on May 31st.

[boca]

During the 42 complete years, the earliest date for the beginning of the summer season was April 16 and the latest was June 3. This is a variation of 49 days. the median date for the onset of the summer season during these 42 years was May 21st.

That record will be smashed this year.

[cpdaman]

nm

[Blown Away]

Yes May 21st is an average, but there is a relationship or coincindence between a later than average start (> May 28th) to the SFL wet season and a dry SFL district May (<2") which has resulted in some significant hurricane impacts on SFL. The records are there.

[Canelaw99]

Trina Robinson, weather person on WTVJ (NBC 6), just announced that our rainy season has started, per the national weather people....will check for official notice

[Blown Away]

Trina Robinson, weather person on WTVJ (NBC 6), just announced that our rainy season has started, per the national weather people....will check for official notice

Now let's research SFL wet season beginning around May 30th combined with dry SFL May district rainfall and we will find some infamous names.

[Decomdoug]

I feel a lot better knowing that the rainy season has officially started! I'll go tell my brown lawn so it can feel better also. Sort of reminds me of a certain "Mission Accomplished" statement.

P.S. This is meant to be tongue in cheek humor

[Canelaw99]

LOL I hear ya. It's like, ok...we have an "official" declaration so we're supposed to feel better now?

[Blown Away]

Trina Robinson, weather person on WTVJ (NBC 6), just announced that our rainy season has started, per the national weather people....will check for official notice

What is the official 2008 rainy season start date, 22nd or 30th?

[KWT]

Well it looks like most of the state is going to come in well below normal but not as below normal as the years that produced those 3 big hurricanes. Still will be interesting to have a test of this theory because Florida is decently below normal.

[fci]

Trina Robinson, weather person on WTVJ (NBC 6), just announced that our rainy season has started, per the national weather people....will check for official notice

Oh thank the lord!
Now I can expect rain every day since Trina says rainy season has started.