Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[Aric Dunn]

visible imagery does not show steady westward motion! we have a broad llc and i have watch it throughout the day it has not moved from this morning except north away from the 8am position..

You can take it up with the professional meteorologist known as wxman57. I disagree with you based on my aforementioned reasoning, and it is also notable that a meteorologist concurs with me (or I agree with him).

It is east of Belize and it is moving steadily west per close investigation.

you show me a position in the morning that you had a the position now ..

[Aric Dunn]

westward.. huh .. thats interesting you believe that its going and has been moving westward.. cause thats not what i see here in this image they show a nw motion

[KWT]

By the way would there be any chance of recon in the BoC if the model tracks suggest its going to enter the BoC in a few days time?

I think personally the system is slowly drifting westward, the center was so broad earlier it was hard to place an exact center, I think what we may have seen is the center just contracting a little making it look like it hasn't moved but thats just my MO.

[MiamiensisWx]

[djones65]

Let's see where the 0000 UTC position is estimated. At 1800 it was 16.8N and 87.5W I personally believe the center is northeast of there. To stormspinner I guess I have to respectfully disagree with you. In my opinion, the center of circulation has become better defined to the northeast within the broad low pressure area. At 1500 UTC the center of circulation appeared to be in the western Gulf of Honduras, but by 21Z it appears to be most organized to the northeast of there. Roatan off the northern coast of Honduras is reporting WSW winds at 15 mph and have been between SW and WSW all afternoon. Initially this morning they were SE. If the circulation was as far west as 87.5W I would expect a more southerly wind direction. Which to me indicates the center of circulation is farther east of there. Roatan's coordinates ar 16.3N and 86.5W.
If a circulation was located .5N and 1.0W of there don't you agree we would be seeing a south southwesterly wind? Besides, we are splitting hairs here talking about a difference of less than 35 miles.

[wxman57]

that last post was supposed to not moving very fast

Yeah, I think we understood that. The problem is that even with 24 more hours over the water there just isn't any significant convergence and nothing moving in to the area to generate persistent convection over the western Caribbean. Could be a different story in the BoC, though. Might be enough time there.

[MiamiensisWx]

Let's see where the 0000 UTC position is estimated. At 1800 it was 16.8N and 87.5W I personally believe the center is northeast of there. To stormspinner I guess I have to respectfully disagree with you. In my opinion, the center of circulation has become better defined to the northeast within the broad low pressure area. At 1500 UTC the center of circulation appeared to be in the western Gulf of Honduras, but by 21Z it appears to be most organized to the northeast of there. Roatan off the northern coast of Honduras is reporting WSW winds at 15 mph and have been between SW and WSW all afternoon. Initially this morning they were SE. If the circulation was as far west as 87.5W I would expect a more southerly wind direction. Which to me indicates the center of circulation is farther east of there. Roatan's coordinates ar 16.3N and 86.5W.
If a circulation was located .5N and 1.0W of there don't you agree we would be seeing a south southwesterly wind? Besides, we are splitting hairs here talking about a difference of less than 35 miles.

The island off Honduras in my visible image is Roatan. A WSW surface wind does not necessarily indicate a LLC further north or considerably displaced from that location.

[RL3AO]

Well, QS isn't much of a help right now.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/quikscat/

[Aric Dunn]

wrong there is a band of convection right through the middle of your placement... which in that area has a w to wsw wind .. which would put the center ( broad ) a tad farther north .. and has not moved much at all to day . no steady motion any which way

[NDG]

Yeah is a little more north than that actually.
Coastal pressures are down to 1007mb

[KWT]

Interesting image Aric because if thats right then the system will make it into the BoC, as you say wxman57 ther eprobably is a chance it will develop, not any certainties obviously but it will have a little better set-up to work with and also a little more time as well.

djones, 35 miles may make a difference when it comes to making it into the BoC, the models have been suggesting it could be that close as to whether it stays onland or goes just out to sea.

Yeah I'd place the center just a little to the north of that but it may just be the broad nature of the low that makes it seem that way I'm not sure.

[Aric Dunn]

that last post was supposed to not moving very fast

Yeah, I think we understood that. The problem is that even with 24 more hours over the water there just isn't any significant convergence and nothing moving in to the area to generate persistent convection over the western Caribbean. Could be a different story in the BoC, though. Might be enough time there.

agreed .. the convergence near the broad low is no where near sufficient at the moment ... i dont think we will see a td where its at but it has not been moving today except from its initial fix early this morning when it was still inland from there is continued north to its present position,..

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting image Aric because if thats right then the system will make it into the BoC, as you say wxman57 ther eprobably is a chance it will develop, not any certainties obviously but it will have a little better set-up to work with and also a little more time as well.

djones, 35 miles may make a difference when it comes to making it into the BoC, the models have been suggesting it could be that close as to whether it stays onland or goes just out to sea.

That was my post...

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah is a little more north than that actually.
Coastal pressures are down to 1007mb

If it was further north than indicated in my diagram, it would have even less time over water because of the Yucatan coastline's southwest to northeast slope.

[Eyewall]

This is where i think the center is:

http://img133.imageshack.us/my.php?image=50339604xs9.jpg

[Eyewall]

oops

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx I was referring to the NOAA/TPC estimate of the low track which would make it into the BoC.

[NDG]

Yeah is a little more north than that actually.
Coastal pressures are down to 1007mb

If it was further north than indicated in my diagram, it would have even less time over water because of the Yucatan coastline's southwest to northeast slope.

But it was been moving very slowly NNW to NW in the last few hours.
I am saying not until at least tomorrow morning for it to be inland.

[Eyewall]

[KWT]

Interesting eyewall, personally I'd place it a little further to the south closer to where Miami is but a little bit to his north. TPC track seems to suggest NW but with these disorganised broad area of low pressure the track will be so hard to get a good grip on I suspect.