Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Indeed Gusty as you said in another post above it seems like every update there is at least one fairly well defined wave, even though this update appears to be against that idea!

Tkanks, but indeed i'm not against any post i'm describing what my untrained eyes are seeing

[Thunder44]

Interesting little wave at 40-45N flaring up this morning. The Ramdsis floater 2 is on it. It has nice upper-level ridge over it right now, but it may run to more shear soon further west:

[Gustywind]

Interesting little wave at 40-45N flaring up this morning. The Ramdsis floater 2 is on it. It has nice upper-level ridge over it right now, but it may run to more shear soon further west:

Yeah definitely agree with you , absolutely this can be confirm by the last twd :
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT.
MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-43W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N37W EXTENDING N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DOMINATING THE TROPICS W
OF 30W. A SECOND UPPER HIGH IS DEVELOPING NEAR 7N18W EXPANDING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 17W. But as you said, a difficult trip will comeing approaching the Olympic Shear Games lol
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html ( very strong shear after the 50w to 60w... awesome)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html ( you can see as you said the upper high, but more west , ahead the wave the strong shear that will cut the wave ... )
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg nice slight burst of convection
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
Weak sal :http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.jpg

So good looking Thunder44 that's great you confirm what my untrained eyes are seeing since two weeks defined waves crossing on the ocean sometimes with low pressures , but they're are more an more decents organized,and gorgeous days after days, rounds after rounds...reminds me more a month of July for my untrained eyes or maybe my eyes are deceiving me?...to be honest . Let's see if this trend continues for the next month, whereas for the moment my eyes appreciate beauty of Mother Nature with theses puffies waves on my screen .
Weak sal :http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.jpg
Tkanks for the link of Ramdis very nice animation

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
MIMIC-TPW CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL ROTATION
IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 8N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N16W TO 4N20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LIEN FROM 9N17W TO 7N22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-16W.
Another nice twave with good convection in very moist environnement appears to have some mid level rotation.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
The last link has a mistake i check the good without mistakes I hope lol
There's a third wave TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF 9N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 51W-59W. We should not experience lot of showers in our island due to the high distance with the wave and the weak to moderate activty...

[Thunder44]

That wave already looks like it's geting torn up by shear this afternoon.

[Gustywind]

That wave already looks like it's geting torn up by shear this afternoon.

Maybe given the high values of shear, that's pretty credible and i wrote in my previous posts how strong the shear is after the 45w... I have a question for you Thunder 44, how can you put a sat pic on your reply? I can't do it, can you help please ? Explain me how to put a pic on a reply , tkanks a lot....
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.




..TROPICAL WAVES...


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
MIMIC-TPW CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL ROTATION
IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 7N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 3N-11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 1N40W TO 8N41W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED AT 1200 UTC BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW
AND WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
6N-9N.
3 well defined waves maybe the classical for the moment
maybe bertha will exibit sooner in June after Arthur....

[KWT]

Yeah I'd expect shear will play it toll on these waves this early into the season but the fact we have suvch well defined waves with convection popping all the way out to 40-45W is very interesting for later in the season. Even more of a hint that we will get a busy CV season.

[Gustywind]

Yeah I'd expect shear will play it toll on these waves this early into the season but the fact we have suvch well defined waves with convection popping all the way out to 40-45W is very interesting for later in the season. Even more of a hint that we will get a busy CV season.

Absolutely , i go with you nice analysis KWT, maybe some things are cooking earlier than predicted keep watching already in June, we're beginning with suprises in stores if if if this trend continues....
I have a question to you as Thunder 44 , how can you put a sat pic on your reply? I can't do it, can you help please ? Explain me how to put a pic on a reply , tkanks a lot....
000

[Thunder44]

Yeah I'd expect shear will play it toll on these waves this early into the season but the fact we have suvch well defined waves with convection popping all the way out to 40-45W is very interesting for later in the season. Even more of a hint that we will get a busy CV season.

Absolutely , i go with you nice analysis KWT, maybe some things are cooking earlier than predicted keep watching already in June, we're beginning with suprises in stores if if if this trend continues....
I have a question to you as Thunder 44 , how can you put a sat pic on your reply? I can't do it, can you help please ? Explain me how to put a pic on a reply , tkanks a lot....
000

When you are posting your reply, there should be an uploader tool right below the message box that helps you host images from the ImageShack site. Just copy the first "hotlink for forums" you see on there to your message before submiting it.

[HURAKAN]

This one needs to be watched for the EPAC.

[punkyg]

This one needs to be watched for the EPAC.

Are you saying its gonna go through SA? you don't think it has a chance to move wnw.

[HURAKAN]

It's very close to SA.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tutt from hell in its way. If not for it this would have a chance to become a low rider. But hey still to early...

[Meso]

Anything coming off the coast now will struggle a bit more than last week or the week before when there are almost no SAL

[punkyg]

Is shear tearing this up?

[KWT]

Shear does appear to be a problem. Also there is far more SAL present but that is what I'd expect as the ITCZ climbs in latitude, should keep things in check till July at least I'd hope!

[Category 5]

And don't forget, sometimes these things are able to make it into the Western Caribbean and GOM and fire up. I wouldn't be looking for development out here but I'd keep an eye out for systems that are able to get across whatever shape they're in.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 33W/34W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEAL A HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. DESPITE THE GOOD
ORGANIZATION OF STRUCTURE...ONLY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
EXHIBITS THE INVERTED-V CLOUD SHAPE WITH ASSOCIATED PATCHES OF
DEEP CLOUDINESS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N
OF 13N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 73W/74W S
OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND IS PRODUCING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS
CENTRAL COLOMBIA.
At least one defined wave per forecast... interressting

[Eyewall]

These waves are looking good for this time in the season. With water temperatures well above normal in that region and the african dust being less of a factor. This could make for an interesting set up for July as these waves travel west into the caribbean.

[Steve H.]

Yes, that is a well defined LL Circulation at 10N/35W for this time of year. Even building a bit of convection. We'll see if it can develop further and survive the cooler central Atlantic SSTs